“the market is on the verge of / in the beginning stages of a bear market”
“no stocks are immune to a sell off, no matter how good the company. Google is no exception”
“The break below of the trend line that has defined the bull market over the past nearly 5 years signals a bear market in my opinion.”
Rick Santelli Calls Out Cramer 1.23.2008
Rick Santelli calls out Jim Cramer on CNBC for being way too bullish near the top of the market.
“Recent discussion has revolved around whether this is a bear market or not. Well, I think that debate can officially be put to rest now. This is a bear market and has been for at least a couple weeks after the major indices broke key long term trend lines.
If you pay attention to the present, you can improve upon it. And, if you improve on the present what comes later will also be better.
“The Powershares Agriculture ETF (DBA) just keeps pushing higher, but topping signals are beginning to appear.”
“With greed comes pain, with pain comes blame and the blame game ends in fear. Only then can we start discussing a true bottom to a market and I don’t think we’re there yet. As the characters of this housing horror show defended their practices in front of congress last week (where was Greenspan?) it’s quite clear the blame game is in full motion. The public always pays first and now it’s time for the government to make an example out of a few ill intentioned CEO’s. It’s all playing out according to the script and I don’t think we’ve seen the end of this mess until a few of the larger financial/home builder companies go under and a few recognized executives are indicted. “
Beware ‘O Major Resistance in Indices 4.27.2008
“After a more than 10% rise off those March lows I believe it’s time to begin getting more conservative and taking some profit off the table”
Freshwater is the ultimate renewable resource, but humanity is extracting and polluting it faster than it can be replenished. Is water the next oil?
Selling in May Is Not a Bad Strategy 5.4.2008
“If you’re not a short term trader, it probably makes sense to move a big portion to cash over the next month or so.”
I do think yesterday’s reversal and today’s confirmation mark an intermediary top. It’s difficult to say just how far we pull back at this point, but one thing is for certain – remain extremely cautious on the long side here.
“If you didn’t lock in hard earned gains off that March bottom in mid May, now is your chance.”
“My approach is that the bulls are going to have to prove me wrong every time. After all, down is the path of least resistance. When the overall market takes out major long term trends lines in the first few months of the year, carves out a bear market rally and hits key resistance in the process, you damn well better believe I’m going to be cautious and recommend moving to cash or hedging your bets until the bulls can prove themselves.”
Ideas for safer investing strategies in a bear stock market.
Commodities Charts Show Bubble 8.07.08
“Can you say bubble? The corn bubble appears to be popping.. don’t expect to ever see $750 again”
While saving the planet, it appears Pelosi will also line her own pockets if in fact the Pickens Plan comes to fruition.
Patience Pays, Cash Still King 9.28.08
My feeling right now is this – if you are in the market with money you absolutely can’t afford to lose or need the cash within a couple years, moving to 100% cash is your best best.
“I’ve had a few emails from people wondering whether it would be good time to put money to work. The short answer is NO! It’s too early yet.”
Is Market Prepping For An End Of Year Rally? 10.19.2008
“I’ve been less than enthusiastic about previous capitulation attempts of this market, but today’s move was much better as buyers stepped up big all the way to the final bell.”
I believe the setup is in place for a decent tradeable rally. I’m certainly not getting aggressive down here, but with 3 successful tests and recoveries from correction lows it’s time to put some skin in the game.
Looking over my posts over the past year you get a sense of the urgency to get extremely cautious as the bear market solidified in the beginning of the year, resuming its strength in June and again in October. With a few capitulation days and successful tests of support in October and November, I shifted a bit to the bullish side late in the year and on into the early part of January 09. However, as we approach the latter half of February, my optimism is waning a bit as increasing government ineptness and desperation take hold while the indices remain within shouting distance of the lows of the correction. Unless you’re a very short term trader, it just remains an incredibly difficult market to trade in with the indices bouncing back and forth in an increasingly tighter trading range. Soon, something has to give and the market will break big in some direction… until that direction is more clear I remain largely in cash.
It’s going to be another wild ride in the market here in 2009. Keep your support, questions, comments and criticisms coming!