Gold Heading Lower, Natural Gas & Uranium Headed Higher? Transports Showing Leadership

Not much has happened with the major indices since my last report, so for the weekly report I thought I’d go ahead and take a look at a few ETF’s. 

Gold, specifically the iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU), has taken out an accelerated trend line from last summer and appears headed to the next level of support at the longer term trend line around 75 – 80.  The long overdue correction is underway.

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While Gold undergoes a correction, so too has the PowerShares Metals Fund (DBB) which is comprised mostly of copper, aluminum and zinc futures.  It had a tremendous run at the beginning of the year up to major resistance around the highs of last April.  It’s digested those gains in a healthy manner and is finding support around the 50 and 200 day moving averages. 

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Natural gas has been red hot in 08, running up nearly 50% and is now digesting those gains.  Natural gas hasn’t had nearly the run that oil has and might soon offer a  good entry point for the long haul as it pulls back to the breakout point of a double bottom base.

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Is uranium/nuclear the next commodity/energy play to run?  That appears to be the case as it carves out the bottom of a double bottom base. 

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Transports, particularly trucking and railroads have done extremely well and several stocks in this space have been breaking out. Notice the Ishares DJ Transportation Fund (IYT) has begun a new uptrend.

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The US real estate sector has been improving, but for the long haul I like the potential of international real estate much better.  A good, diversified way to play it is with the SPDR Intl Real Estate Index (RWX), which has cleared a downtrend. 

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Remember the semis?  You don’t hear much about this sector anymore and with the semis still confined within a 4 year channel, it’s easy to forget about.  The Semiconductors Holders Trust (SMH) hit a nearly 4 year low in January and has cleared a short 5 month downtrend, paving the way for a test of the next level of resistance around 32 in the coming weeks/months.

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::: Model Portfolio :::

** This section will now appear as a separate report about every other Wednesday. 

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::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Investment Brokerage: 39%
2. Education & Training Services: 19.85%
3. Semiconductor – Memory Chips: 16.90%
4. Processing Systems & Products: 11.60%
5. Manufactured Housing: 11.40%
6. Industrial Metals & Minerals: 11.00%
7. Credit Services:  10.05%
8. Residential Construction: 10.05%
9. Mortgage Investment: 9.50%
10. Copper: 9.30%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Consumer Services: -.95%
2. Auto Manufacturers: -.70%
3. Food Wholesale: -.50%
4. Networking & Communication Devices: .10%
5. Business Equipment: .10%
6. Drug Stores: .20%
7. Medical Practitioners: .20%
8. Healthcare Info Services: .40%
9. Silver: .50%
10. Beverages – Soft Drinks: .55%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –

1. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA)  14.65%
2. iShares Home Construction (ITB) 13.80%
3. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) 13.10%
4. Claymore China Real Estate (TAO) 11.85%
5. SPDR Metals & Mining (XME) 9.85%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. US Natural Gas (UNG) -5.15%
2. iPath India (INP) -3.75%
3. Indonesia Fund (IF) -3.05%
4. Malaysia Fund (MAY)  -2.95%
5. iShares Malaysia (EWM) -2.40%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

This section will now appear as a separate post on Mondays.

While 2008 should be a much slower year for IPO’s considering the deterioration of the market, there will continue to be some good companies coming to market here and there.  I’ll be highlighting the best IPO’s every Monday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (4/7/2008- 4/11/2008) :::

Monday:        Consumer Credit
Tuesday:       Pending Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
Wednesday:  Wholesale Inventories, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Trade Balance, Initial Claims, Treasury Budget
Friday:            Export/Import Prices, Mich. Sentiment

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday:
Alcoa (AA)

Tuesday:
Chattem (CHTT)

Thursday:
FCStone Group (FCSX), Genentech (DNA)

Friday:
Fastenal (FAST), General Electric (GE)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. ETF’s Showing Greatest Demand: iShares Taiwan (EWT) Breaks Out

2. Insider Buying at Ceco Environmental (CECE) Signals Another Big Run?

3. Put PUTs To Work As Insurance Against Disintermediation

4. Market Breaks Out But Volume Suspect; Stock of Day – AsiaInfo (ASIA)

5.
Visa (V) Breakout From Bullish Triangle

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