Google continues to defy market weakness today and is making a run at all time highs with very strong volume. It will have a tough time breaking out to all time highs in a difficult market (which after yesterday’s move, appears to be where we are headed). But if the market can get going again, Google looks poised to take off.
Below is a portion of the Stock Watch report I sent out to premium members yesterday, which takes a look at the chart of Google. ________________________________________________________________________________
Google broke out of a nice looking base (its first since the IPO) in mid April after reporting earnings that smashed estimates and ran up nearly 50%. Since that time, it’s been forming another outstanding looking base with tight price action throughout and retreating volume at the bottom. The price action indicates that the stock is still out of the eye of the general public.. for now. Google is the kind of stock that you’ll hear talked about at cocktail parties.. the kind of stock everyone one wants to own. I don’t think we’re close to that stage yet, but if it can break out strongly from here, you can bet that Google running up towards $400/share will be a very hot topic. That kind of exposure often leads to climax moves where the stock moves 10 – 15% in a day. It’s at that point, you’ll hear the stock mentioned by your friends and relatives.. and you’ll know to get out. It will be fun to watch this one.
$400/sh. for Google ain’t a hot topic. Google going to $1,000/sh. is.
GOOGs mkt cap= MSFTs mkt cap ($273 Billion) when GOOG reaches $978.71.
Google, $312, now sports an $87 Billion mkt cap.
Do the math.
I’m personally not a big fan of basing buy/sell decisions based on valuations. I remember when people were saying Google was far overvalued at a market cap of 30 billion (back at $100/share), which was greater than several large old growth companies. Are they still saying that? Extrapolating in the other direciton is probably a lost cause as well, but it is interesting to compare if nothing else. Ebay and Yahoo are much better comparisons in terms of market cap because their comapanies are much more similar. Both have market caps in the 50 billion range. If there is one valuation measure I use from time to time its P/E to growth and the PEG of all 3, interestingly is around 1.9. Heck, based on that they’re all over valued! But I’ll let the chart tell me whether to buy or sell.