Awaiting the CPI Data

Once again the Fed spoke and once again (as far as what was said), I could care less.  What’s important is how the market responds to the often vague wording of the Fed, which for today was ultimately positive as the volume picked up on the buy side.  Let’s see if the move today carries over into tomorrow.  I have a feeling it won’t.  I think traders will ultimately wait for the upcoming CPI data on Thursday and the PPI data next week before placing large bets either way.  I personally will remain bullishly neutral (see also, cautiously optimistic) until the market breaks out of its current trading range (meaning that I’m using margin sparingly).  Looking at the charts of the major indices, they do look beautiful up to this point.  Tight consolidations after the big runup we saw in November is very bullish action and indicate that another big leg up in the market may be on the horizon.  What happens if the Dow breaks 11,000 and all that speculative real estate money gets put to work in the market?  Hmmm…

Support and resistance in the Nasdaq isn’t as pronounced as it is in the S&P and Dow, but I think you can currently draw a rough channel of support and resistance based on the previous break out point above 2200 (support) and the highs of the mild consolidation over the past few weeks (resistance).  Based on the magnitude of the leg up, it would seem that the market needs to continue to spend time consolidating.

Support and resistance is much more clear in the Dow, with support just above 10,700 and resistance at the all so elusive Dow 11,000.  Nice bounce from support today with volume.

The S&P looks similar to the Nasdaq with a tight consolidation over the past couple weeks.  Support at 1250 with resistance at around 1270.  A break from this trading range, could indicate another sizable leg up. 

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