Bears Make Defining Move, Retest of Lows More Likely

Last Friday’s action was a polar opposite of the previous Friday.  Last time around, there was Charlie Gasparino saving the day for the bulls, with the announcement of an imminent Ambac bailout.  A furious 30 minute rally saved the indices from breaking short term support levels, which would have created the likelihood of a retest of those January lows.  As it turns out, that move was just delayed by a week.  With a half hour to go on Friday and the indices breaking short term support levels once again (details in the charts below), you wondered if there was going to be yet another speculative rumor floated about that would save the day.  If not, then perhaps some good old fashioned plunge protection team buying to save the day.  Nothing.  This time around it was nowhere to be found, leaving the indices in a precarious situation with a retest of those January now very much likely in the coming days.  What a difference a week makes. 

Take a look at a chart of the Nasdaq and you notice that it has taken out support of a triangle formation with increasing sell volume on Friday.  If there is one bright spot to Friday’s move, it’s that sell volume wasn’t extreme, but you can’t help but believe that this sets us up for a retest of the January lows soon.

The S&P has also taken out support of the short upward trend off the big capitulation day a few weeks ago, setting up a likely move to test the January lows around 1275 in the coming days.

The Dow too, couldn’t quite bust through the next level of resistance around 12750, but hasn’t quite busted through short term support either.  However, given Friday’s momemtum to the downside, it appears to be just a matter of time.

Friday’s move was one of the most siginificant in since the capitulation in mid January and really puts the bears in control in the short term.  If you’ve captured some profits in recent days, it might be a good idea to lock it in and if you’re sitting on some losses don’t let them get out of hand.  Cut ’em quick and have a seat on the sidelines until the technical action improves.

::: Model Portfolio :::

** This section will now appear as a separate report to be published every other Wednesday

The Self Investors Model Portolio wrapped up 2007 with a 30.2% gain.  Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction in the portfolio?  You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and reports with the very popular Gold membership.  Don’t delay, get started today and join me for many more highly profitable months here at SelfInvestors.com.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1.Silver: 9.25%
2. Toy & Hobby Stores: 6.40
%
3. Music & Video Stores: 6.25%
4. Computer Based Systems: 5.35%
5. Independent Oil & Gas: 4.25%
6. Gold: 3.30%
7. Consumer Services:  3.25%
8. Personal Computers: 3.20%
9. Computer Peripherals: 3.10%
10. Auto Parts Wholesale: 3.05%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Dairy Products: -10.40%
2. Processing Systems & Products: -9.40%
3. Major Airlines: -9.35%
4. Sporting Goods Stores: -8.85
6. Banks – SE: -8.60%
7. Recreational Goods: -7.85%
8. Catalog & Mail Order Houses: -7.15%
9. Office Supplies: -6.35%
10. Banks – Mid Atlantic: -6.25%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. HLDRS Regional Bank (RKH) 6.38%
2. KBW Bank (KBE)  6.00%
3. US Broker Dealer (IAI) 7.40%
4. Ishares Brazil (EWZ) 7.30%
5. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) 7.15%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. HLDRS Regional Bank (RKH) -6.40%
2. KBW Bank (KBE) -6.00%
3. 
iShares Broker/Dealer (IAI) -5.60%
4. HLDRS Internet (HHH) -5.10%
5. SPDR Financial (XLF
) -5.05%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

This section will now appear as a separate post on Mondays (if there are some interesting IPO’s coming to market).  It continues to be a very slow IPO market this year, but maybe Visa will help jump start it towards the end of this month.

While 2008 should be a much slower year for IPO’s considering the deterioration of the market, there will continue to be some good companies coming to market here and there.  I’ll be highlighting the best IPO’s every Monday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (3/3/2008– 3/7/2008) :::

Monday:         Construction Spending, ISM Index
Tuesday:       Auto/Truck Sales
Wednesday:  ADP Employment, Productivity, Factory Orders, ISM Services, Crude Inventories, Fed’s Beige Book
Thursday:      Pending Home Sales, Initial Claims
Friday:            Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday:
51Jobs (JOBS), Home Inns & Hotels Management (HMIN)

Tuesday:
Balchem (BCPC), Gafisa (GFA), Perficient (PRFT), Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SCR), Sun Hydraulics (SNHY), Trina Solar (TSL)

Wednesday:
Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), Costco (COST), DXP Enterprises (DXPE), Fuel Tech (FTEK), Gasco Energy (GSX), Mindray Medical (MR), Smith Micro Software (SMSI), Union Drilling (UDRL)

Thursday:
American Oriental (AOB), Copart (CPRT), Daystar Technologies (DSTI), Dynamic Materials (BOOM), Sun Healthcare Group (SUNH), Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Friday:
Veolia Environment (VE)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. Despite Inflation Data & Google, Market Breaks Out But Volume A Concern

2. Losses Mount, Stock Rises in Fannie Mae (FNM) & Toll Brothers (TOL)

Losses Mount, Stock Rises in Fannie Mae (FNM) & Toll Brothers (TOL)

 I’m going to begin doing something a bit different for the earnings posts and instead of just highlighting the Self Investors Leading stocks that are moving with volume, I’m going to highlight companies that beat estimates and guided higher (or just beat by a wide margin) and companies that missed estimates and guided lower (or just missed by a wide margin).  Companies that are Self Investors Leading Stocks (ie. great fundamentals and above 200 day moving average) will be marked with (SLS) and will include the Self Investors fundamental rank in brackets.  It’s a score out of 30 and includes earnings/sales growth, ROE, profit margins, management ownership and debt levels.

Beat Estimates and Guided Higher Or Beat By Wide Margin

• LKQ Corp (LKQX) Auto Parts Wholesale, fundamental rank [26/30],  up 19%, carving out right side of new base (SLS)

• Interstate Hotels & Resorts (IHR) Lodging,  up 14%, breaking a deep, long downtrend

• Papa John’s Pizza (PZZA) Restaurants, up 11%, trying to begin carving out a new big base, has wheat and cheese inflation been priced in already?  It appears so!

• Warnaco Group (WRNC) Apparel – Clothing, up 9%, a new base begins

• Clean Harbors (CLHB) Waste Managements, up 9%, breaking out to all time highs today

• Masimo (MASI) Medical Appliances & Equipment, up 6%, look like the beginnings of a new base

• Dreamworks (DWA) Movie Production, up 4%, emerging from steep correction

• Stone Energy (SGY) Independent Oil & Gas, up 3%, adding to gains from recent breakout

• Herbal Life (HLF) Drugs Wholesale, fundamental rank [25], up 2%, still working on right side of a base (SLS)

• Sina.com (SINA) Internet Info Provider, down 4%, still below resistance of moving averages, trying to find a bottom

Missed Estimates & Guided Lower or Missed by Wide Margin

• Carters (CRI) Apparel – Clothing, down 23%, on its way to support around 15 at the very least

• Dycom Industries (DY) Heavy Construction, down 13%, this one died long before missing estimates on earnings

• Dresser Rand (DRC) Diversified Machinery, down 5%, still confined within a downtrend and actually looking like a decent short

• Toll Brothers (TOL)  Residential Construction, up 4%, missed estimates but rises anyway.. yet another signal of bottoming action

• Fannie Mae (FNM)  Mortgage Investment, up 3%, missed by wide margin with big losses mounting, yet the stock rises – you guessed it.. most of the bad news has already been built in.

Despite Inflation Data & Google, Market Breaks Out But Volume A Concern

When a market shifts from one of topping to bottom seeking, you begin to notice a shift in reaction to the news.  At tops, it seems the market shrugs good news aside and looks for an excuse to sell.  That’s because most of the good news has been built into the price already.  Near the bottom, you see the market begin to ignore some of the bad news and begin rallying on any glimmer of hope.  We have been seeing this in the homebuilders for a couple of months now, which is why I had been writing about a bottom in that space long before the talking heads jumped on board.  The market looks well into the future and prices those events in.  That’s why you see the stocks rise long before you begin to see the housing data improve.  I still get a kick out of the few emails reminding me that the homebuilders are doomed for many years and that there is no way this is a bottom.  Well, it’s nothing more than opinion.  The charts of the homebuilders and the reaction to their awful earnings reports were telling something quite different. 

The same thing happens in the overall market as well.  I alluded to this change of character a bit to my members in an email last night, saying:

"We kind of picked up where we left off on Friday to some degree.  A relatively flat day gave way to a wave of buying in the latter half of the day on yet more bond insurer happenings.  Where as Friday’s move was based more on speculation, today’s move was based on the lack of a downgrade from Standard & Poors in credit ratings on both Ambac and MBIA (although Ambac remains on credit watch).  It appeared the market was just looking for another excuse to rally which is a positive sign for bulls.  Remember that at market bottoms, the market begins to shrug bad news aside and rally on any glimmer of hope.  That’s what we saw today.  It led to a break out from those wedge formations in both the Dow and S&P which provides a bullish outlook for the market in the short term, but let’s not forget that we have big economic data pouring in over the next few days.  Today was a good start, but how the market reacts over the next few days will be critical and getting aggressive on the long side here doesn’t make much sense considering the economic news of late has not been good.  Great caution is still the best approach at this time."

The bad news continued to flow out of the gates this morning.  The producer price index at double the estimates and a Google sell off would have easily derailed this market just a few short weeks ago.  Instead, the market chose to look at the IBM buy back and the comments from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, saying that he doesn’t expect elevated inflation rates.  to continue.  Of course that’s quite the opposite of what Dallas Fed President Fisher said just a few hours later!  He said, "I’m more concerned about inflation than I have been of late. It’s a growing concern. We see it particularly in commodities and energy products."  You think?

Look at the retailers today.  If you had told me a few weeks ago that retailers would get big institutional buying and big breakouts, I’d probably have said you were crazy.  Weakening economy, rising inflation, housing problems.. yet retailers are rocking.  Just look at Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Buckle (BKE).  Both broke out big today and are great examples of basing buys and sells on the charts which are the best leading indicators around.  How about Home Depot?  Missed estimates and warned about declining earnings.  Stock was down big right?  Nope.  It ended flat.  If that’s not a signal that a bottom is being put in on Home Depot, I don’t know what is.  Pay attention to price and volume, particularly surrounding a news event.  It’s all you’ll ever need.

There’s no question the character of this market is beginning to change to the bullish side of the coin, but as far as I’m concerned this is still a bear market and it still pays to be careful.  That means initiating smaller positions than you normally would, not chasing stocks and cutting losses quickly.  The indices have broken out of the wedge formations I’ve been discussing here, but keep in mind there are big overhead resistance areas all over the place.  Let’s have a look.

The Nasdaq actually just closed a hair above that wedge formation today and continues to lag the rest of the market.  Take out Google and you might have a different story.  At any rate it does look poised to at least test those January highs soon around 2425 as long as it holds above today’s lows, which marks the area around the bottom of the wedge formation.  The amount of buy volume over the past few days has been a bit of a concern.  You want to see institutions jumping in with both feet, but they aren’t doing that just yet which is why I remain cautious.

nasdaq

The S&P has cleared that wedge formation but again, volume is somewhat lacking indicating a lack of momentum.  It’s going to be tough to push through that resistance around 1400 without institutional help. 

s&p500

The Dow busted through the wedge AND hit resistance at the Jan highs today before pulling back a bit.  Not much conviction behind the moves of the past 3 days.  Notice that even if it does bust through the Jan highs, big resistance of the primary downtrend is not far ahead.

I like the reaction to the news of late and it does appear the character of the market is improving some, but it doesn’t make sense to get aggressive right here.  Any light volume pull backs would offer chances to get into companies with superior fundamentals and technicals, but putting on smaller positions until more leadership and institutional buying emerges is probably the best bet.


::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day February 26th 2008

Nasdaq: UP .75% today with volume right around average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) .39%, volume 15% BELOW average
Dow: UP .91%, with volume 1% BELOW the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP .99%, with volume 17% BELOW the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP .75%,  with volume 9% BELOW the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP .93%, with volume 5% BELOW the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks actually performed better than of all the major indices, which was encouraging.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 161 to 75
* Advancers were up an average of 2.63% today, with volume 13% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.37% with volume 16% ABOVE the average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP 1.18% today with volume 14% ABOVE average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/si/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days):  
Coal, Agriculture, Natural Resources, Commodities, Biotech and Oil
                                          
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Health Care Providers, Utilities, Telecom, Aerospace/Defense, Broker/Dealers

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Home Construction, Home Builders, Retail, Commodities, Gold Miners

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Internet, Coal

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  I’m running short on time tonight, so won’t have a stock of the day tonight, but have a look at these Self Investors Leading Stocks that moved up with volume today and are above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  They are listed in order of Fundamental Rank. 

If you’d like, you can get access to my entire database of leading stocks (which includes great filters) with just a Silver Membership!

Ctrip.com (CTRP)
Mechel (MTL)
Natural Gas Services (NGS)
Meridian Bioscience (VIVO)
Website Pros (WSPI)
FCStone (FCSX)
Somanetics (SMTS)
Axsys Technologies (AXYS)
Greif (GEF)
Chindex International (CHDX)
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO)

This 3 Legged Bull Will Contend With Housing, PPI, GDP and Bernanke

You could call Friday’s action an exclamation point to one of the wildest weeks of intraday reversals I’ve ever seen.  With about 30 minutes to go of trading, the market was dead in the water with volume picking up and the indices right on the verge of taking out the lows of the day.  We had already taken out support of those wedge formations I’ve been discussing which was critical to staying away from the possibility of testing the January lows.  The only way we were going to avoid serious technical damage today was some kind of end of day miracle rally.  I have to admit, given the trading of the past week it was in the back of my mind.  But nothing like this.  There he was, Charlie Gasparino of CNBC mentioning a rumor of an Ambac bailout plan that was imminent (Monday or Tuesday of next week). 

.. and here we go again.  It led to a 250 point reversal in 30 minutes.  Suddenly, the short positions I had put on earlier in the day didn’t look like such a good idea!  In 30 minutes, the market changed from one on the verge of another big break down to one in a state of uncertainty.  As has been the case for much of the past 8 months or so, good technical and fundamental analysis has given way to rumor, Fed speak and news driven rallies.  It remains an incredibly difficult environment to trade and one that I have to continue to recommend staying out of for now.  You’ve seen how difficult it has been for me to pull profits out this year and I eat and breathe this stuff while trading for a living. 

I liked what one member said in an email to me: "It feels like skill is being replaced by luck."  So true.  Of course there is luck involved to successful investing, but it seems much more so in recent weeks.  There will come a time when new leaders emerge and the rumors, Fed speak and big news headlines subside.  When the technicals matter and patterns become more predictable.  When that time comes, there will be extraordinary profit potential.  Take this time to watch and learn.  Maybe read that investing book you’ve always wanted to read, study the tutorial here and the nearly 4 years of Stock Watch report archives to get an idea of what  a great looking chart looks like.  Keep your watch lists up to date (the Hot Stocks screen here at Self Investors is a great place to start!).  Be patient but prepared.

On Friday, Don Worden of Telechart summed up the recent action so well in his notes:

"There is an old saying you seldom hear anymore: "The market knows." It is generally uttered in kind of a spooky, ghostly tone. But it would mean the same thing even if somebody like the late Judy Garland were belting out the ghostly lyrics. It means that the market is clairvoyant. It often behaves in a way that convinces traders it must have known all along what was going to happen. 

     It is something the market has repeated very often–over the years. And nobody has ever been able to explain it, although many think they know. However, if I know anything about ghosts, they are very "shut mouthed." They don’t give away many secrets.  I think it’s possible that I’ve never encountered a market that lacks intuitive insight to the degree this one does. It’s clear the market spends most of the time bewildered these days. This obviously means the ghosts themselves are confused. Maybe they went on strike with the writers and are refusing to come back.
     In the meantime, the rest of us mortals are forced to think for ourselves. All we can do is try not to lose money until the market or the ghosts lurking about make a mistake and inadvertently drop a clue.

     That was an impressive move during the last half hour today. The problem is that was an ominous move yesterday. And a bullish move the day before that. And so it’s been. Each day the market puts on a show for us, delivering a believable clue that soon falls apart–or more often is just forgotten. "

Let’s turn to the charts.  Perhaps they provide us with some clues (or not!)

Like all the indices, the Nasdaq too was left for dead heading into the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday.  It broke down below the wedge formation in convincing fashion before staging that massive late day  reversal.  Notice how it just got back to the point of resistance/support of that bottom short term trend.  Are we bearish or bullish here?  It’s just damn tough to tell at this point.  We do appear to be breaking down in the short term but with the bulls having an outside chance to still break out from the top of the wedge, given Friday’s high volume reversal.  It’s entirely possible that Friday’s lows just marks the bottom of a wider triangle formation, but at this point I have to give the nod to the bears.  It took a massive rally based on speculation of a deal getting done with Ambac and a whole helluva lot has to happen for that to work out.  With all of the deteriorating economic news and rising inflation, the bulls are pinning their hopes on a bail out of bond insurers.  The bulls have legs to stand on, but I’m darn certain it’s less than 4.

Notice that the S&P really took out that wedge on Friday with the massive rally just getting it back to resistance of the wedge.  It just looks like this market is going to need to see a massive follow through very early in the week next week for Friday’s move to mean anything.  Again, Friday’s lows could just mark the bottom of a much wider wedge formation, but regardless, we’re going to need to break out of the top of the formation to avoid a retest of the January lows.

The Dow looks better than the S&P and Nasdaq do and was able to get back inside that wedge but lets remember that the Dow isn’t the best representative of the overall market.

The bottom line is that this market remains a big uncertainty with no trend, little leadership (commodities) and a flurry of upcoming important economic events (PPI, GDP, housing numbers).  Not to mention a speech from Bernanke on Thursday to contend with.  This market is probably ready to explode very soon, but which way remains to be seen.  It’s best to stay out until a firm sense of direction is resolved.

::: Model Portfolio :::

** This section will now appear as a separate report to be published every other Wednesday

The Self Investors Model Portolio wrapped up 2007 with a 30.2% gain.  Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction in the portfolio?  You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and reports with the very popular Gold membership.  Don’t delay, get started today and join me for many more highly profitable months here at SelfInvestors.com.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Internet Service Providers: 10.75%
2. Steel & Iron: 8.15
%
3. Wholesale – Other: 7.80%
4. Aluminum: 7.60%
5. Copper: 7.25%
6. Gold: 7.15%
7. Technical Services:  6.05%
8. Meat Products: 6.05%
9. Heavy Construction: 5.95%
10. Diversified Computer Systems: 5.75%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Toy & Hobby Stores: -7.65%
2. Sporting Activities: -6.70%
3. Consumer Services: -5.75%
4. Apparel Footwear: -4.95
6. Rental & Leasing Services: -4.65%
7. Manufactured Housing: -4.50%
8. Personal Computers: -4.25%
9. Drug Delivery: -4.20%
10. Security Software & Services: -4.20%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA) 22.35%
2. Market Vectors Steel (SLX)  7.60%
3. Asa Gold (ASA) 7.40%
4. Ishares Brazil (EWZ) 7.30%
5. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) 7.15%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. HOLDRS Telecom (TTF) -6.20%
2. Ishares Telecom (IYZ) -5.45%
3. 
iPath India (INP) -5.30%
4. SPDR Biotech (XBI) -4.80%
5. Powershares Clean Energy (PBW
) -4.75%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

This section will now appear as a separate post on Mondays (if there are some interesting IPO’s coming to market).

While 2008 should be a much slower year for IPO’s considering the deterioration of the market, there will continue to be some good companies coming to market here and there.  I’ll be highlighting the best IPO’s every Monday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (2/25/2008– 2/29/2008) :::

Monday:         Existing Home Sales
Tuesday:       PPI, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:  Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      GDP, Initial Claims
Friday:            Personal Income/Spending, Core PCE Inflation, Chicago PMI

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday:
Henry Schein (HSIC), Donaldson (DCI), Focus Media (FMCN), LDK Solar (LDK), Shanda Interactive (SNDA)

Tuesday:
China Fire & Security (CFSG), Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Home Depot (HD), Internet Gold (IGLD), Natus Medical (BABY)

Wednesday:
Amedisys (AMED), Toll Brothers (TOL), LifeCell (LIFC), Central European Distribution (CEDC), Ctrip.com (CTRP), Flowserve (FLS), Gmarket (GMKT)

Thursday:
Arena Resources (ARD), Chart Industries (GTLS), Flour (FLR), Rowan (RDC), American Intl (AIG), China Finance Online (JRJC), China Medical Tech (CMED), Comp Vale Do Rio (RIO), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Grant Prideco (GRP), Hansen Natural (HANS), Heico (HEI), SW Energy (SWN)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. Goldcorp (GG) Breaking Out After Blowing Out Estimates, Vasco Data (VDSI) Crushed Again

2. Axsys (AXYS) Breaks Out to All Time Highs, Suntech (STP) Blinds Solar

3. The Coal ETF, Gold / Agriculture Topping? Time to Play Financials / Homebuilders?

Goldcorp (GG) Breaking Out After Blowing Out Estimates, Vasco Data (VDSI) Crushed Again

I’m going to begin doing something a bit different for the earnings posts and instead of just highlighting the Self Investors Leading stocks that are moving with volume, I’m going to highlight companies that beat estimates and guided higher (or just beat by a wide margin) and companies that missed estimates and guided lower (or just missed by a wide margin).  Companies that are Self Investors Leading Stocks (ie. great fundamentals and above 200 day moving average) will be marked with (SLS) and will include the Self Investors fundamental rank in brackets.  It’s a score out of 30 and includes earnings/sales growth, ROE, profit margins, management ownership and debt levels.

Beat Estimates and Guided Higher

• Ansys (ANSS) Technical & System Software, fundamental rank [26/30],  up 7%, carving out right side of base (SLS)

• Costar Group (CSGP) Business/Management Services,  up 9%, breaking downtrend today

• First Advantage (FADV) Business Management Services, up 9%, pushing above 200 dma, carving out big base

• Given Imaging (GIVN) Medical Appliances & Equip, up 14%, still seeking a bottom, looks to have done so in past few days

• American Railroad (ARII) Railroads, up 15%, still below 200 dma

• Itron (ITRI) Scientific & Techical Instruments, up 18%, carving out right side of ugly base

• Netease (NTES) Internet Info Provider, up 10%, carving out right side of new base

• Sina.com (SINA) Internet Info Provider, down 4%, still below resistance of moving averages, trying to find a bottom

• Terex (TX) Steel & Iron, up 4%, carving out right side of new base

• Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) Business Software & Services, down 5%, still submerged below resistance trying to begin a new base

• Cryolife (CRYO) Medical Appliances & Equipment, up 11%, carving out right side of new base, pushed above 200 dma today

• Goldcorp (GG) Gold, up 2%, briefly broke out from base on base pattern today before pulling back, technically quite strong

• Interactive Data (IDC) Information & Delivery Service, up 5%, carving out right side of new base

Missed Estimates & Guided Lower

• 3SBio (SSRX) Biotech, fundamental rank [27/30] down 28%, ouch (SLS)

• Vasco Data Security (VDSI) Security Software & Services, down 37%, wow! was above 40 just a few months ago

• Landamerica Financial (LFG) Surety & Title Insurance, down 8%, actually looking darn good technically after a steep correction

• Lithia Motors (LAD) Auto Dealerships, down 28%, no bottom in sight

Axsys (AXYS) Breaks Out to All Time Highs, Suntech (STP) Blinds Solar

I’m going to begin doing something a bit different for the earnings posts and instead of just highlighting the Self Investors Leading stocks that are moving with volume, I’m going to highlight companies that beat estimates and guided higher and companies that missed estimates and guided lower.  Companies that are Self Investors Leading Stocks (ie. great fundamentals and above 200 day moving average) will be marked with (SLS) and will include the Self Investors fundamental rank in brackets.  It’s a score out of 30 and includes earnings/sales growth, ROE, profit margins, management ownership and debt levels.

Beat Estimates and Guided Higher

• Axsys (AXYS) Scientific & Technical Instruments, fundamental rank [22/30],  up 11%, breaking out of well formed base to new all time highs (SLI)

• Transocean (RIG) Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration, fundamental rank [28/30],  up 5%, carving out the right side of a base (SLI)

• Hewlett Packard (HPQ) Diversified Computer Systems, up 8%, carving out right side of suspect base

• iRobot (IRBT) Appliances, down 1%, carving out handle formation of a base within a larger downtrend, lots of overhead resistance

• Oil States (OIS) Oil & Gas Equip & Services, up 12%, carving out right side of new base

• TJX Companies (TJX) Department Stores, up 6%, carving out right side of suspect base

• Garmin (GRMN) Scientific & Technical Instruments, down 8%, still mired in a downtrend and remains quite bearish after today’s high volume reversal

Missed Estimates & Guided Lower

• Suntech Power (STP)  Diversified Electronics, down 17%, significant recovery off today’s lows but in danger of ultimately testing the next support around 30, quite a dramatic sell off since Jan 1st

• Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) Business & Management Services,  down 11%, not a bad short candidate

The Coal ETF, Gold / Agriculture Topping? Time to Play Financials / Homebuilders?

For this week’s market report I’m doing something a bit different by highlighting moves in certain sectors through ETF’s to get a good picture of the overall market.  I’ll have analysis of the major indices following any significant moves next week.

In the last ETF review, I discussed the opposite trends of gas and oil – oil generally breaking down, while natural gas appears to be in the beginning stages of new major uptrend.  Note the double botton base in the US Natural Gas Fund and a beak of the downward trend.  It’s overbought in the short term, but natural gas appears to be in play on the long side for 08.

Oil did indeed break down in a big way but has retraced much of that move back to resistance.  I think it’s probably setting up for another move down soon to test the lows of the correction.  The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) is hitting resistance of the 200 day moving average.

Interested in leveraging up on another move down in oil?  Then DUG is your tool.  It seeks to return twice the inverse of the move in oil. 

Topping High Flyers?

Gold and Agriculture stocks have been flying but showing some signs of deterioration, at least in the short term.

Gold broke out of a nice looking bullish triangle formation back in December and is carving out another.  However, this triangle formation is showing some heavy selling and more likely prone to failure.  My guess is that it needs to form a more substantial base than a short triangle in order to coil the spring for a move to 1000/oz and beyond.  If this triangle is broken up here, look for a move to the 50 day moving average around 86, where it has found support in the past.

The Powershares Agriculture ETF (DBA) just keeps pushing higher, but topping signals are beginning to appear.  The high volume reversal on Feb 6th was the first.  Perhaps it hits psychological resistance around 40 and fails.  This thing is well overdue for a correction, but it won’t happen until it can take out that 20 day moving average, which it has been trending along for several months.

Left for Dead, Now Bottoming Out? Homebuilders & Financials

I’ve written about the bottoming homebuilders on a couple of occasions in the past several weeks and admittedly received some flak from people for making the first call.  Then they ran up 50% and the talking heads began to call a bottom.  That’s when I wrote up my 2nd report mentioning they were bottoming but very overbought in the short term (time to profit on the short side!).. and profit we did!  So where do we stand now?

The homebuilders continue to retrace that big ramp up out of downward trends and in my opinion getting close to ending this consolidation phase and beginning a new leg up.  The sell volume on Friday was a bit on the heavy side, so I think there is the possibility of more consolidation (maybe another 5 – 10%)  The key is not trying to jump in too early and wait for a new leg up to emerge.  In other words you want to wait for big buyers to step in again and start buying just as they did the first time around. 

Financials are trading in near tandem with the builders.  The big run up after the Fed cuts, followed by a retracement of that move.  I think the financials are a bit closer to beginning a new leg up then the builders are, but I want to see sell volume diminish to about half of the average followed by another big surge in buying.   I do think the financials bottomed though as a whole.  That certainly doesn’t mean individual financial names couldn’t continue to slide further or go bankrupt. 

New Kid on the Block – Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)

Coal has been hot of late and recently has been receiving much mainstream attention at lofty levels.  No wonder coal names have begun to see some correcting.  I think that continues for a bit longer, but coal does seem like another good play in 08 once it retraces some of this move up.  KOL is a new ETF from Market Vectors that began trading in January.  It’s liquid enough out of the gates to consider as a good, diversified way to play coal.

 ::: Model Portfolio :::

** This section will now appear as a separate report to be published every other Wednesday

The Self Investors Model Portolio wrapped up 2007 with a 30.2% gain.  Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction in the portfolio?  You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and reports with the very popular Gold membership.  Don’t delay, get started today and join me for many more highly profitable months here at SelfInvestors.com.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Rubber & Plastics: 10.70%
2. Internet Service Providers: 10.70
%
3. Aluminum: 8.90%
4. Heavy Construction: 7.80%
5. CATV Systems: 7.45%
6. Oil & Gas Equipment Services: 6.30%
7. Nonmetallic Mineral & Mining:  5.50%
8. Steel & Iron: 5.45%
9. Broadcasting – Radio: 5.15%
10. Shipping: 5.10%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Toy & Hobby Stores: -12.00%
2. Surety & Title Insurance: -8.90%
3. Manufactured Housing: -5.45%
4. Education & Training Services: -5.15
6. Jewelry Stores: -4.90%
7. Electronic Stores: -4.75%
8. Gaming Activities: -4.25%
9. Medical Practitioners: -4.20%
10. Healthcare Info Providers: -3.90%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Market Vectors Global Alernative Energy (GEX) 10.35%
2. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy (NLR)  8.85%
3. Powershares China (PGJ) 7.55%
4. Market Vectors Russia (RSX) 7.50%
5. Ishares Sweden (EWD) 6.40%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Ishares Home Construction (ITB) -3.45%
2. KBW Banking (KRE) -3.20%
3. 
Powershares High Yield Dividend (PEY) -2.45%
4. SPDR Gold (GLD) -2.05%
5. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB
) -2.00%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

This section will now appear as a separate post on Mondays if there are some interesting IPO’s coming to market.

While 2008 should be a much slower year for IPO’s considering the deterioration of the market, there will continue to be some good companies coming to market here and there.  I’ll be highlighting the best IPO’s every Monday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (2/18/2008– 2/22/2008) :::

Monday:         None
Tuesday:       None
Wednesday:  CPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes
Thursday:      Leading Indicators, Initial Claims, Philly Fed
Friday:            None

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Tuesday:
Walmart (WMT), China Fire & Security (CFSG), Fossil (FOSL), Crocs (CROX), iRobot (IRBT)

Wednesday:
Garmin (GRMN), Transocean (RIG), Given Imaging (GIVN), Sina (SINA)

Thursday:
The Street.com (TSCM), Morningstar (MORN), Hornbeck Offshore (HOS), ICON (ICLR), ANSYS (ANSS), Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (RBA), GFI Group (GFIG), Blue Coat Systems (BCSI), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF)

Friday:
Life Time Fitness (LTM)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. Yahoo Rejects Microsoft, Google Wins

2. Technicals Improving, But Significant Risk Remains

3. Gaiam (GAIA) to Spinoff Real Goods Solar (RSOL)

4. Focus on the Present to Improve the Future

5. Market In Need of Some Roger Clemens Juice; Stock of Day – Balchem (BCPC)

6. Jim Cramer Credibility Problem Part Deux

4. Stop, Drop and Think

Stop, Drop and Think

The following is the 2nd part of an introduction post from new contributor Lance Chastain (see his bio below) on the importance of Observations.
You may read the first part here

:::::::

Picking up from where we left off last time….. 
 
We’ve all read about or heard of dramatic business successes or business makeovers or departments that were turned around into star performers. Maybe you’ve had the pleasure of being involved with one that provided real personal and professional success for everyone involved. I certainly have. What a sense of accomplishment…to see the smiles on people’s faces when they’ve accomplished something no one thought possible…to realize they’ve not only participated in it but have received real, personal tangible rewards for their efforts. What a rush. 
 
Now…. let me ask you a question.  
 
If we can do this for business and its wide ranging complexities, why can’t we do this as individuals? What’s stopping us? 
 
Just like in business, life throws a lot at us…its messy at times. Not accomplishing our goals or struggling over and over with the same things is frustrating. Failure is real…it stinks and its painful. Some of us start out in bigger holes than others and simply have to work harder. Spinning our wheels and wasting time is irritating. Being overly optimistic and not seeing and embracing reality is problematic for making the best choices. Allowing circumstances or sentiments (either good or bad) to dictate to us instead maintaining proper perspective can be a killer. 
 
That’s why I like Observations. While they’re a great deal of work, they’re continuous, active, objective, practical and constructive tools and guides to really improve the choices and decisions we make in every aspect of our lives.  
 
Here’s a sampling of a few I’ll be sharing over the coming weeks. (Note: when reading add “Observations” before each)
 
….on believing in people 
….on ignoring reality  
….on making hard decisions 
….on having people who believed in me 
….on working with incredible people 
….on letting people down who believed in me 
….on being too focused on myself 
….on not trusting my instincts 
….on being too demanding and intense 
….on having that “hard conversation” 
….on seeing things as they really are 
….on encouraging others and watching them grow and prosper 
….on my mentors 
….on really saying what you mean 
….on really saying what you mean (and wishing you hadn’t!) 
 
….and many, many more. 
 
As you can see from the short list above some Observations will be quite introspective and in-depth from a personal relationships standpoint. Others will combine both the personal aspects and the experience of having observed, mentored, managed, lead and coached hundreds of individuals throughout my business career. What I’ll be sharing is not from any text book or secret sauce or formula or quick fix for success. And one more thing….I promise you won’t get any of the noisy, hyped up “you can be a success too” garbage here. Just simple, straight talk containing the Observations from a life lived and filled with diverse experiences around living, failing, learning and succeeding. In the process, I hope my Observations will surprise you, make you think, encourage you to begin taking the time to create your own and ultimately provide the path to better decision making in every aspect of your life. 
 
In Chapter 8 of Tyranny Of The Moment , Thomas Hylland Eriksen sums up one of the book’s main points as follows: 
 
“ The main scarce resource for suppliers of any commodity in the information society is the attention of others. These vacant moments become fewer and shorter, since the people in question are subjected to powerful expectations that they should squeeze ever more impressions, commodities, experiences and pieces of information into their lives. The next impression kills the previous at an accelerating speed.” 
 
May we not allow the “next impression to kill the previous at an accelerating speed” as it pertains to our prosperity, peace and health and the necessary work of constructing our own personal Observations to help guide us towards the life we desire. 
  
I appreciate Tate’s willingness to allow me to contribute to the blog and look forward to hearing from you. If I’m not clear on a point let me know and I’ll work on it. If there’s an Observation you’d like for me to write about or, if you have Observations you’d like to share with me or discuss, I’d love to hear from you.  
______________________________ 
 
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. Arthur Schopenhauer 

Lance Chastain Author Bio

My entrepreneurial business career spans 25 years and is both domestic and international in scope. I quit college to co-found my first business at the age of 20 and subsequently received the education of a lifetime during the next 17 years. I was blessed with the opportunity to apply that education in my second business and am now semi-retired at 45. I’ve traveled to 27 different countries and have extensive experience in Asia involving nearly every aspect of raw material sourcing, manufacturing, operations, procurement and logistics. I’ve been the recipient of numerous local, regional and national business awards and been featured on a nationally broadcast financial news program. You can reach me at lchastain1 at cox.net but it’s best to leave comments about the article in the comments section below.

Jim Cramer Credibility Problem Part Deux

Well Don is at it again.. another video highlighting the hypocrisy of Jim Cramer.   If Cramer had any credibility left, this might just be the video to remove every last ounce of it.  In September of last year he actually said in a Street.com interview that the Fed should do nothing with interest rates and that if the market dropped 1000 points then so be it.  We all know what happened after that.. the infamous "they know nothing" rant, the giddy cheerleading when the Fed did cut rates and calls for big bull market runs after the biggest cuts..  This is worth a look. 

 

ETF, IPO & Breakout Stocks Analysis, Tracking & Research