All posts by Tate Dwinnell

Notable Earnings: August 3rd Before the Bell

Good morning, I’m going to run through the earnings quickly this morning (meaning no charts this time). 

Starting at the top [with the rank in brackets]

[54/60] Gildan Activewear (GIL): beats by a penny, but misses on revs and issues downside guidance for Q4.  It issued in line guidance for the full year ’05 though.  The stock is well extended past a proper buy point and 14% above the 50 day moving average.

[51/60] LTC Properties (LTC): The REIT for nursing centers and assisted living did not have a strong quarter as earnings rose only 5% and revenues 2% from the previous quarter.  Earnings per share came in at .27/share vs. .42/share that the 2 analysts that follow the company expected.

[50/60] Westlake Chemical (WLK): The company missed analyst estimates by .06/share by posting earnings of .74/share.  The stock is currently forming a decent looking base and is looking to break out from a handle formation, but that base may be in jeopardy with today’s earnings report.

[50/60] Swift Energy (SFY): Another outstanding quarter ast the company beats by .07 and is up 4% in premarket trading.  The stock is well extended after breaking out at the beginning of May.  It’s up over 30% since then.

[49/50] Netease.com (NTES): EARNINGS BLOWOUT! The China online gaming company absolutely smashed estimates this morning by .17/share, good for a 131% increase over the year ago period.  The company also posted revenue growth that was double what analysts had expected, good for a 90% increase from the ’04 quarter.  The stock is soaring in premarket trading, up nearly 25%.

[49/50] Noble Energy (NBL): Same story for this oil company.  Handily beating estimates by .06/share as profits surge higher.

[48/50] Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) – misses by .07 and getting hit hard premarket

[47/50] Dominoes Pizza (DPZ) – Beats by .03/share, good for a 47% increase over the year ago period as same store sales increased.  Revenues came in a bit light with a 7% increase over the year ago period, but did beat the analyst estimate as well.

Best O The Rest..

Ansys (ANSS), Novamed (NOVA) and Fundtech (FNDT).

Note:  Ansys, Novamed and Fundtech are all looking to blast out of bases this morning.  Maybe earnings will provide just the boost they need!

Notable Earnings: August 2nd After the Bell

Not too many notable earnings after the bell today, but of course there are a few high quality companies to highlight starting off with CB Richard Ellis Group(CBG) which is the highest ranking company to report after the bell today.  Continuing the streak of high ranking companies reporting outstanding results, CB Richard Ellis, the provider of commercial real estate services blew out earnings and beat estimates by .28/share and also raised guidance for the full year (no surprise there).  The stock is obviously responding positively after hours and is up nearly 7%.  This is a stock I bought for the SelfInvestors.com Model portfolio at the end of May and made the decision to sell (as I almost always do) before earnings.  Had I not been holding a 22% gain, I probably would have held this one through earnings considering it doesn’t exhibit the volatile swings around earnings time that a technology company might.  Another holding in the portfolio, St. Joe (JOE) was held through earnings because I had neither a large gain or sizable loss.  So it really does depend on a variety of factors.  However, more often than not I think selling before earnings is the best way to go in order to minimize risk and preserve capital.  I certainly don’t regret locking in a nice gain on this position ahead of earnings one bit, especially considering the bounce near support after the downgrade on valuation was rather weak.  I can always repurchase if the time is right and this is certainly one company to keep on the radar!

With a rank of 51 out of 60, General Cable (BGC) is another highly rated company reporting after the bell today.  Exluding one time costs as a result of the closing of manufacturing facilities, the company beat estimates by .02/share as earnings more than doubled from the year ago period.  They beat on revenues as well, but revenue growth continues to come in a bit on the light side with an increase of 9% from the year ago period.  The stock is well extended past a proper buy point.

HCC Insurance (HCC) is one of the highest ranked insurance companies in the database and they posted solid results after the bell and beat by .04/share.  They also upped guidance for ’05.  Technically, the stock bounced impressively off support of the 50 day moving average and remains too extended from a proper buy point.

Best ‘O The Rest..

  • Technical Olympic USA (TOA): The Florida based homebuilder posted profit growth of 90% over the year ago period, smashing estimates by .19/share. They also raised guidance for the full year ’05.  Technically, the stock looks outstanding and cleared all time highs on July 13th with near record volume.  It’s been consolidating in a fairly tight range since, but may will probably bust out tomorrow. 
  • Cal Dive International (CDIS): Another oil company beats estimates by a bundle.. enough said.  Cal Dive is one of the best in the business.
  • Blackboard (BBBB): The developer of software for online education became profitable for the first time in ’03 and has grown fast and furious since, albeit a bit inconsistently from quarter to quarter.  The company beat by .03/share after the bell which is good for a 200% increase over the year ago period.  Revenues increased by 24% over the same period.  Institutions are showing a big appetite for the stock in the last few months as indicated by heavy volume buying.  The stock remains far extended from the first buy point at 19.35, but recent consolidation could be called a high handle, offering another buy point on a breakout.  I personally would prefer a drop to support of the 50 day moving average in this case as an opportunity to initiate a position.  The stock is up 4% in after hours trading.

What Resistance?!

The Nasdaq led the way today as potential resistance around 2200 (see yesterday’s post) proved to be no match.  Volume edged higher across all indices and closed near the highs of the day.  The action doesn’t get any more bullish than that.  While today’s action was significant and yet another indicator of great market strength, I think more important will be the follow through action over the next week or so.  Will the Nasdaq hold and create a new support level at these four and a half year highs?  Let’s see if the Dow can break out of its trading range between 10,600 and 10,700 and make a move on Dow 11,000.  Now, that might even get old uncle Larry off his easy chair and into the market again, fueling a wild rally to Dow 12,000 by the end of the year.  OK, I’m getting ahead of myself.  I’ll stop now.  Actually, I wouldn’t mind seeing a 2 – 3% pull back and consolidation throughout the month of August, creating entry points in stocks that have gotten ahead of themselves, then a big end of year rally.  Maybe then, just maybe people will begin to start talking about stocks again at cocktail parties, instead of real estate!

ETF Movers: China, Utilities, Basic Materials

It’s been some time since I’ve posted ETF movers and today is a good day to begin again considering today’s move is a significant one.  The Nasdaq is clearing key resistance at 2200 and looks like it will hold above that level into the close.  However, today’s move is lacking oomph as indicated by the lack of ETFs making a big move today.  In addition, volume levels for the major market tracking ETF’s (QQQQ, SPY and DIA) are running below average at this point in the trading day with volume 9%, 18% and 41% below average.  (Data as of 2:30EST)

Ticker Name Price Price Change % Vol Change DI20 DI40 RS % From 50DMA % From 200DMA
FXI Ishares FTSE/Xinhua China 63.69 1.94 229 20 20 54 12.01 15.42
XLB SPDR Materials 28.93 1.51 93 2 3 47 3.14 0.28
ILF Ishares Latin America 102 1.54 51 2 3 74 10.49 23.95
EWA Ishares Australia 18.3 1.1 157 -1 0 59 4.33 8.22
BDH HLDRS Broadband 17.48 0.92 93 1 0 65 10.42 13.65
XLU SPDR Utilities 32.49 2.01 107 -1 -1 78 4.1 11.92
EWZ Ishares Brazil 26.5 2.2 50 1 -2 70 8.61 18.41
UTH HLDRS Utilities 115.29 2.25 109 -6 -6 79 5 13.3

Note: The DI scores measure the demand of the ETF using price and volument movements.  The higher the score, the greater the demand for the fund.  The China Ishares ETF is making another big move today, as it has over the past couple of weeks.  The fund showing the greatest demand over the past 20 days is the Ishares Malaysia (EWM) ETF with a score of 26.  The following table shows the top 10 over the past 20 days.

Ticker Name Price Price Change % Vol Change DI20 DI40 RS % From 50DMA % From 200DMA
EWM Ishares Malaysia 7.51 0.94 67 26 27 56 6.22 6.37
FXI Ishares FTSE/Xinhua China 63.71 1.97 228 20 20 54 12.05 15.46
BBH HLDRS Biotech 195.9 0.26 -19 11 10 79 12.12 28.24
IYM Ishares Basic Materials 50.1 1.46 -53 11 9 45 4.64 2.29
HHH HLDRS Internet 62.55 2.02 -22 10 7 54 8.93 4.65
EWH Ishares Hong Kong 13.47 1.43 -27 8 10 73 8.37 13.29
IGW Ishares Semiconductor 60.18 2.1 -45 8 6 49 8.98 15.2
IYT Ishares Transportation 68.35 0.01 -52 7 -3 70 5.4 5.17
IBB Ishares Nasdaq Biotech 77.57 0.66 -10 6 12 41 11.34 12.06
EWO Ishares Austria 25.48 0.16 25 5 7 57 7.78 13.45

Notable Earnings: August 2nd Before the Bell

Several high quality companies are reporting this morning led by United Therapeutics (UTHR) with a rank of 52 out of 60.   The developer of therapies for the treatment of cardiovascular, oncological and infectious diseases posted a profit for the first time in the June ’04 quartrer and growth has accelertated ever since.  Quarter over quarter earnings growth in the last 4 quarters has been 264%, 550%, 287% and 444%.  This morning, the company isn’t hitting those lofty numbers again, but has smashed estimates nonetheless by .16/share by posting 172% quarter over quarter growth.  The stock is soaring in premarket trading, up nearly 16%.  United Therapeutics has carved out a very short base and volume levels don’t indicate real healthy action up to this point.  Look for the stock to return to the area around 57 – 58 as a possible opportunity to initiate a position.

Rank 51/60

  • A.M. Castle & Co (CAS):  The plastic and specialty metals distributor is looking to bolt out of a base this morning on strong earnings.  This is a company that has bounced back in a big way in the last year after losing money in the previous 3. 
  • Schawk Inc (SGK): The provider of digital imaging prepress services to the consumer products packaging market beats by a penny.  The stock is in the process of carving out a new base.
  • A.D.A.M Inc (ADAM): The publisher of interactive healthcare educational products is a very small company with no analyst estimates, but has posted another strong quarter with an increase in revenue of 29% and increase of 79% in earnings from the year ago period.  The stock is currently working on carving out the right side of a base.

Other notables reporting this morning in order of rank….

Amedisys (AMED) – up 9% in premarket, Coach (COH), Laserscope (LSCP) – up 8% in premarket, Remington Oil (REM), Oskosh (OSK), Eagle Materials (EXP), Accredited Home Lenders (LEND), Vital Images (VTAL) – up 18% in premarket trading, Coventry Health (CVH), TXU Corp (TXU), Petroquest Energy (PQUE), Genesee (GWR) and American Capital Strategies (ACAS)

Notable Earnings: August 1st After the Bell

I wanted to highlight a few outstanding companies that reported after the bell today – Jupiter Media (JUPM), Cutera (CUTR) and SRA International (SRX).

Jupiter Media (JUPM) is a leader in internet research and digital images and has been growing and fast and furious in the last 2 years.  The company reported earnings today that were in line with estimates and revenues that just beat estimates.. Apparently that wasn’t quite good enough as the stock is trading down more than 5% after hours.

The stock broke out above 20 in mid July with good volume but still faces resistance at all time highs in the 24 – 25 range.  A retreat to the breakout point around 20 would offer a buy opportunity if you missed the initial breakout.

Cutera (CUTR), a provider of of products used in non invasive aesthetic procedures, is a company on the mend after struggling for most of ’04.  After reporting quarter over quarter earnings growth of 300% last quarter, the company topped that today with growth of 450%, smashing estimates by .09 cents a share and raising guidance for ’05.  No surprise that the company is up nearly 10% after hours.

Too bad the stock couldn’t make this kind of move AFTER earnings! I was hoping it would behave itself long enough to provide a decent entry point after earnings, but it didn’t happen.  Along with USNA, this chart has to be up there at the top of the "best looking" charts list. 

SRA International (SRX), a provider of information technology services and solutions in national security, civil government and health care really began to hit its stride in ’02 and has posted very consistent growth of around 35% on average each quarter since.  Another solid quarter was posted after the bell as the company beat by a penny, however issued guidance for next quarter a penny below.  Revenue estimates are in line.  The stock is up 2% after hours.

Technically, the stock broke out of a somewhat sloppy base back in April and has had a decent run by gaining 17%.  However, the action is a bit shaky with volatile swings and poor up versus down volume.  Currently it sits just above support of the 50 day moving average.

Other Notables Posting After the Bell…

Herbal Life (HLF), Oil States Intl (OIS), LECG Corp (XPRT), Maritrans (TUG) and General Growth Properties (GGP).

Nasdaq Faces Resistance

It’s been quite a ride for the market over the last couple of months and there really isn’t any reason to think it can’t continue.. which is what has me a bit on the cautious side.  While the market looks very healthy here, there is a bit too much optimism out there.  Not to mention the Nasdaq will face some pretty stiff resistance around the 2200 mark.  I think this level is every bit as important, if not more so than the resistance at 2100 it cleared on July 8th.  Its a level at which the Nasdaq has been unable to clear at the beginning of ’04 and at the beginning of ’05.  Whether the 3rd time is a charm is anyone’s guess at this point, but history should make you swing just a wee bit to the side of caution.  I’ve certainly begun to move off margin and will be vigilant about locking in profits should the situation arise.  At any rate, should be another interesting week.. never a dull moment in this business!

Notable Earnings: July 28th After the Bell

OK, I tried for a full two weeks to give a detailed earnings report run down each day and I’m hitting the wall right before the finish line.  I slept right through the alarm clock this morning for the first time since yesterday morning .. It was an ambitious endeavor, but one I won’t be trying again.. EVER!   Thankfully, my shipment of acai berries arrived last night just in time to rejuvinate me for a weekend of RR.  For you early morning risers (ei. west coasters) who are trying to wean yourselves of the addiction of caffiene, I highly recommend whipping up an Acai berry smoothie (think chocolate/blueberry mixture) in the morning.  Incredible… and you’ll be helping to save the rain forests of Brazil in the process.  Equally as satisfying.  Check it out at Sambazon.com (you can also buy locally at some high end markets).  Drop me a line and tell me what you think!

What I will do to finish out this earnings season and earnings seasons beyond is to highlight a few companies each day, typically the best fundamentally and/or technically, and maybe just list the tickers of the rest in order of ranking.  For more on the SelfInvestors.com database and ranking system please see this page.

On to the highlights from this evenings reports…

WebEx (WEBX), developer and marketer of services that allow end-users to conduct meetings and share software applications, documents, presentations and   other content on the Internet using a standard Web browser is the highest ranked company in the SelfInvestors.com database with a rank of 51/60.  With 23 consecutive quarters of revenue growth it’s a company doing something right.  That streak continued after the bell today as the company reported revenue growth of 23% which was in line with estimates.  On the earnings side, the company beat by a penny and posted growth of 32% from the year ago period.  WebEx also raised guidance for the full year ’05.  However, shares are down more than 2% after hours.

Technically, the stock broke out of a long, double bottom base (albeit not a great looking one) at the end of June and has worked its way up about 10% higher.  Considering this is not a great looking double bottom (second leg down doesn’t undercut the first) and earnings were fast approaching, this is not a stock I would have pulled the buy trigger on at the first breakout.  What I’d be looking for at this point is a pull back to support at the 50 day moving average as an opportunity to add a small position.  Keep in mind that the stock still has to face resistance at around 33.. an area where the stock may form a large handle.  Certainly, one to watch but probably not a great opportunity at this level.

Several companies with a rank of 50/60 reported after the bell…

  • Microsemi (MSCC): The maker of high end semis beat estimates after the bell, but just misses on rev estimates.  Company guides in line for Q4.  Shares down 6% after hours. 
  • Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS): The provider of inpatient behavioral health care services in the United States beat earnings estimates by .03/share and reaffirmed for ’05, but shares slipped just a bit after hours.
  • Webside Story (WSSI): The provider of on-demand Web analytics services reported and outstanding quarter that was in line with estimates and reaffirms guidance for next 3 quarters, but falls 6% after hours to $15/share.  Good support in the 14-15 range, worth keeping an eye on.
  • Netgear (NTGR):  The provider of home networking gear beat earnings estimates by a penny, but missed on sales targets.  Shares fell more than 7% after hours.  Technically, the stock looks outstanding and looks poised to break out to all time highs.  Watch support tomorrow at around 20.
  • Sonosite (SONO): The developer of hand carried ultra sound systems reported a wider loss this quarter (that was in line with estimates) than the year ago quarter due in part to a large marketing effort for the launch of the 3rd generation MicroMaxx which began shipping late last quarter.  Shares fell just a bit in after hours trading.
  • SS&C Technologies (SSNC): The provider of specialized software, business process outsourcing services and application solutions to the financial industry beat by a penny after the bell and also announced it was being bought out by a private equity firm.
  • Franklin Resources (BEN): The investment management company reported another outstanding quarter and beat estimates by .04/ share.

Best of the Rest (in order of rank)…

Radient Systems (RADS), Whole Foods Market (WFMI), KLA Tencor (KLAC), Techteam Global (TEAM), Standard Pacific (SPF), Baker Hughes (BHI), United Surgical Parners (USPI), American Medical Systems (AMMD), Cameco (CCJ), Invitrogen (IVGN), Charles River Labs (CRL), Community Health (CYH) and Guess (GES).

Notable Earnings: July 27th After the Bell (Pulte Homes, Cleveland Cliffs, Cogent Systems, Aldila)

Ahhh, make them stop.. so many earnings so little time.  Ok, just going to highlight a few of the stocks I think will be worth watching tomorrow as earnings reports are digested.  For more on the SelfInvestors.com ranking system, please see this page.) 

Rank 53/60

Right at the top of the list is Cogent Systems (COGT), a provider of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS) and other fingerprint biometrics solutions to governments, law enforcement agencies and other organizations worldwide.  Yes, this will be big business for years to come if not already.  Cogent Systems reported great results again this quarter beating earnings estimates by 3 pennies a share as well as revenue estimates.  That translates to an 89% year over year increase in earnings and a 130% increase in revenue.  The stock is up just a bit after hours.

"During the second quarter we grew revenues by 131% year over year, announced over $75 million in new contracts and orders and successfully completed our follow-on equity offering," commented Ming Hsieh, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cogent. "Our record quarter was driven by continued strong demand for our AFIS systems and services. During the quarter, we successfully expanded on our business with follow-on orders from existing customers and also diversified our client base with large orders from new customers. Our leading technology enabled us to win a number of important new contracts for border control, voting applications, law enforcement and point of sale applications for the fast growing commercial market. Looking ahead, demand for biometric solutions continues to rise, and we are seeing an increasing number of opportunities."

Cogent Systems is carving out its first base since going public last year.  Technically, its not an outstanding chart, but hey, few charts are.  The decline of nearly 50% in the base is too steep, but the up versus down volume in the right side is just what you want to see in a winning stock.  A breakout above 30 would offer an opportunity to initiate a position, but I’d probably be setting a tight stop just below the 20 day moving average (currently around 29).

  • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR): The supplier of silicon wafers said second quarter earnings fell 3 percent due to an industry wide inventory surplus, which the company predicts is finally coming to an end.  Earnings were in line with estimates and revenues beat, but the stock is down 4% in after hours trading.  The stock broke out at 14.42 on June 8th and didn’t waste any time soaring 30% in a short time.  Might be time for a pit stop at the 50 day moving average at around 16.

Rank 52/60

The leading designer of graphite golf shafts (i’m still convinced the reason my own golf game is poor is because of the equipment – there must be a slight bend or something in all of my clubs.. maybe time for an Aldila set!) continues to be off the radar of Wall Street analysts, but that may change with the latest quarter.  The company reported a revenue increase of 53% over the year ago quarter and an earnings increase of 68%.  The stock is soaring after hours, up over 20%.  I might be willing to nibble a bit should the stock consolidate quietly around the $24 – 25 range for a few weeks.  I don’t like the short base.. it needs more time to digest the big gains over the past year.

Rank 50/60

  • Pulte Homes (PHM): The good news from the home builders just keep rolling in.  Pulte announced a revenue increase of 31% and an earnings increase of 62% over the year ago period.  The company’s backlog rose 24%, they raised the ’05 outlook, increased the dividend and to top it off, set a 2 for 1 stock split.  Pulte is up a couple bucks in after hours trading.
  • Cleveland Cliffs (CLF): The producer of iron ore pellets absolutely blew out earnings after the bell today, whopping estimates by .43/share.. setting the stage for a possible breakout in a nice looking base.  Shares up over 5% in after hours trading.
  • Range Resources (RRC): I have this company as one of the highest rated oil stocks in the database and todays earnings report will keep them there.  However, they missed the lofty analyst estimates.  Not much change after hours.

Others notables that reported after the bell last night (in order of rank)..

Netlogic Microsystems (NETL)beats by .04, stock up 4% after hours
HealthExtras (HLEX)
– reports in line
Talx Corp (TALX) – beats by .02, guides higher, stock down 4% after hours
Internet Security Systems (ISSX) – reports in line, but indicated 3Q may fall short, down 7% hours
Witness Systems (WITS) – beats by penny, but guides lower for Q3, down 3% AH
Questar (STR) – beats by .02
Intermagnetics (IMGC) – beats by .01, shares down 7%
Roper Industries (ROP) – beats by .04, declares 2 for 1 stock split
BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI) – beats by penny
Harris Corp (HRS) – beats by .02, ups guidance, up 3% after hours
Manitowoc (MTW) –
beats by .07
Bell Microproducts (BELM) – misses by penny, beats on revenue, down 4% AH
Nautilus (NLS)
– reports in line, reaffirms guidance, down 3% AH