All posts by Tate Dwinnell

IPO Lockup Dates (June 5 – 8)

The IPO lockup period is a legally binding contract between the underwriters and the company undergoing the initial public offering that probits company insiders from selling their shares.  The expiration of the lockup period can be very important because it can result in downward pressure share price as insiders cash out a portion of or all of their position.

The following is a list of companies with expiring IPO lockup periods for the coming week:

Note: An * indicates those tracked by SelfInvestors in the new IPO Tracker database.. a database of only the best IPO’s coming to market.

6/5/2007: Aegean Marine Petroleum Network (ANW) *, Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) *, Heely’s (HLYS) *

6/6/2007: Sourcefire (FIRE) *

6/8/2007: Fortress Investment Group (FIG) *

Stock Spam Promotion in Major Financial Publications! Guangzhou Global (GZGT)

A couple days ago I was reading Investors Business Daily and something caught my eye  – no it wasn’t a great piece on technology trends or the next hot company.  It was a full page ad from growthstockguru.com promoting a pink sheet penny stock, Guangzhou Global (GZGT)!  I read a lot of financial publications and don’t ever recall seeing a full length ad with the same kind of flashy promotion you get in your junk email.  Is the desperation for ad dollars this great?  To me it’s unbelievable that respected publications like Investors Business Daily would put their credibility on the line for a few bucks like this.  IBD isn’t the only one.  Apparently Forbes, Fortune and BusinessWeek were running these ads as well but I haven’t seen them.  The IBD ad is right in front of me on page A13 of the Friday edition (the ad is running yet again on page A15 of the weekend edition).  Shame on you IBD and other publications for being a part of the stock spam problem and not a part of the solution.  How do you live with yourselves knowing that some of your readers may have naively jumped into this stock before the big dump.

The IBD ad ran in the Friday edition.  After all the pumping from these slick ads, Guangzhou Global (GZGT) began the big dump with a little more than an hour to go in  trading Friday.  A nearly 38% drop.

gzgt stock spam
chart via MSN

I would like to commend Kiplinger’s for being responsible and not running these ads.  According to Thomas Anderson of Kiplinger, they were also approached and declined to run the ad.  There is some interesting background in this article about the relationship between growthstockguru.com, GZGT and the advertiser as well as the financials of the company.  Some highlights:

– The editor of growthstockguru.com, Aharon Bronfman doesn’t show in a search of private and public databases.  It’s entirely possible this person doesn’t even exist! Do a search in Google and you’ll see what I mean.  Fifteen years of investment experience and this guy is invisible?  Also interesting to note that the website went online just days before GZGT started trading.  So much for the hype in the ad that claims Aharon’s 3 recent stock picks went on to extraordinary gains. 

I’ve taken this a step further and uncovered the following:

– The listed address for GrowthStockGuru.com is

Growth Stock Guru
1461 A First Avenue, # 360
New York, NY 10021-2209
USA

If you do a Google search for the address 1461 A First Avenue, #360, New York, NY 10021-2209 you start seeing other unsavory companies with the same address such as

– A Witherspoon, Seymour & Robinson Inc which looks to be a fairly shady company in its own right. 

– Is it coincidence that another investing site tradesoeasy.com with rumored links to a german spammer has the same address?  I think not.  It appears that the address used by growthstockguru.com and many other unscrupulous companies is some sort of address forwarding service. 

It’s unclear just who owns what and all the parties behind the pump and dump scheme.. but the bottom line is that Business Week, Forbes, Fortune and Investors Business Daily, whether they realized it or not,  all were a part of that.  That is mighty disturbing.  Could they not do a simple background check as I have done and realize this was most likely a classic pump and dump scheme? Or was the desperation for ad dollars too  great to pass up? 

I don’t have the time or resources to research this any further but the moral of the story is to be careful out there avoid those pink sheet stocks!

S&P500 Recaptures Trendlines, Market Remains Fatigued; China Solar IPO – Yingli Green Energy (YGE)

I think I’ve mentioned before that this is beginning to feel like a game of musical chairs, trying to squeeze out a few more profits on the long side before the music stops.  On Wednesday morning, the jukebox received a jolt after China’s attempt to curb the speculative, trading mania which sent a quick shiver to world markets.  However, just as has been the case over the past few months, the music continued to play and bulls were dancing.  How long can buyers aggressively buy these dips?  Nobody can say for sure, but as I mentioned in a report several days ago, the market was indicating significant fatigue.  (see  https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/weeklyafter-stock-market-review-archives/the-selling-was-coming-you-were-ready/) I mentioned in that report that the S&P had taken out its upward trend line with volume but that I wouldn’t be suprised if the market shrugged off this technical damage once again.  It did and the S&P reclaimed that trendline this week.  Go figure.  However, the fatigue is still in place.  One thing that stood out to me last week was the high volume price churn on Thursday which can be a good indicator of a market top.  Here’s a look at the S&P:

You see on the daily that the S&P did reclaim that upward trend line.

S&P500

Looking at the price/volume action in the S&P over the course of the week, I’d call it net neutral.  A bullish reversal on Wednesday, followed by that churn day on Thursday.. Tuesday and Friday were fairly meaningless.

My motto remains the same – be careful out there right now. While there remains short  term trading opportunities on the long side, it’s not a bad idea to sit in cash.  Avoid the feelings of potentially "missing out".  Patience.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

The portfolio remains a bit out of synch with this market and continues to have trouble gaining any traction as  I continue not making large bets on the long side and holding steady with some short positions.  While my approach has been unsuccessful over the past several weeks, there will be better times ahead.  Such is trading.  The important thing for me is to trust my analsyis and realize I won’t be right all the time.  Trying to make up for a lack of performance with aggressive buying at this stage could be a recipe for disaster.  During the week, there were a few minor transactions in the portfolio.  I closed one position when I  covered my GTI short for a 4% loss.  On the long side, I added to my long term Google position which now represents about 15% of the portfolio.  I will be looking to up that to 20% if it can break out and hold above its all time high of 513.  I also added a short term long trade, looking for a quick 10 – 15% profit.  Current allocation of the portfolio stands at 51% long, 29% short and 20% cash.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. REIT – Residential: 10.90%
2. Technical Services: 9.20%
3. Copper: 8.90%
4. Nonmetallic Mineral Mining: 8.65%
5. Steel & Iron: 8.05%
6. Silver: 7.65%
7. REIT – Hotel/Motel:  7.60%
8. Processing Systems & Products: 7.50%
9. Electronic Stores: 7.20%
10. Industrial Metals & Minerals: 6.70%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Residential Construction: -2.80%
2. Long Distance Carriers: -1.10%
3. Toy & Hobby Stores: -.30%
4. Broadcasting Radio: -.30%
5. Jewelry Stores: -.25%
6. Drug Manufacturers Major: -.25%
7. Music & Video Stores: -.20%
8. Education & Training Services: .05%
9. Toys & Games: .10%
10. Mortgage Investment: .15%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Korea Fund (KF)  9.00%
2. Ishares Brazil (EWZ) 9.00%
3. Ishares Latin America (ILF) 8.40%
4. HLDRS Internet Infrastructure (IIH) 8.10%
5. Latin America Discovery (LDF) 8.05%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. US Home Construction (ITB)  -2.25%
2. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) -1.45%
3. Chile Fund (CH) -.95%
4. HLDRS Pharma (PPH) -.40%
5. Ishares Italy (EWI) -.20%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

Surprise, surprise, yet another chinese solar IPO!!

1. Yingli Green Energy (YGE): Yingli Green Energy is green from top to bottom. The vertically integrated photovoltaic (PV) manufacturer makes polysilicon wafers and ingots that it uses to create PV cells and modules, which it incorporates into solar energy systems that turn sunlight into clean energy. The company, with an annual production capacity of 95 megawatts of polysilicon ingots and wafers, 90 megawatts of PV cells, and 100 megawatts of PV modules, is one of the few companies in China involved in all stages of PV manufacturing, sales, and installation. Its customers are mainly in Germany, Spain, China, and the US.  Trading set to begin on Friday.

2. Starent Networks (STAR): Starent Networks makes infrastructure equipment used by wireless carriers to offer enhanced voice and data services like video, multimedia messaging, and Internet service. Its ST16 Intelligent Mobile Gateway helps cellular companies as they transition from second- to third-generation networks. Carriers that have deployed Starent’s equipment include Verizon Wireless, Virgin Mobile, and China Unicom. Founded in 2000, the company has received funding from Matrix Partners, North Bridge Venture Partners, and Highland Capital Partners, among others. It has operations in Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US. Starent filed to go public in 2007.  Trading set to begin on Wednesday.

3. Infinera (INFN): The buzz on this company is that it designs photonic integrated circuits (PICs) intended to replace much larger components within optical networks. It also offers networking equipment built around these chips. Infinera’s chips are made from indium phosphide, a specialized compound semiconductor material that offers light-years faster performance than standard silicon. Customers include cable system operators, Internet service providers, and telecommunications carriers, such as freenet, Global Crossing, Level 3 Communications (60% of sales), Qwest Communications, and XO Communications.   Trading set to begin on Friday

4. Limelight Networks (LLNW): Limelight Networks wants to be the center of attention for digital content providers. Founded in 2001, the company offer services for delivering media content via the Internet for more than 700 customers such as DreamWorks, Akimbo, and Belo Interactive. As the demand for digital content grows, media providers need to find more ways to cater to larger audiences. Limelight Networks’ clients provide content through a variety of devices, including PCs, mobile phones, and digital video recorders.  Trading set to begin on Friday.

5.  FBR Capital Markets (FBR): an indirect taxable REIT subsidiary of FBR Group. The company was formed to be the holding company for FBR Group’s capital markets business, including investment banking and institutional sales, trading and research, and asset management business.  Trading set to begin on Wednesday

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/4/07 – 6/8/07) :::

Monday:        Factory Orders
Tuesday:       ISM Services
Wednesday:  Productivity (rev), Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit
Friday:           Trade Balance

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: Guess (GES)
Wednesday: DSW Inc (DSW)
Thursday: Bio Reference Labs (BRLI)

::: In Case You Missed It – Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. Google (GOOG) Gaining Strength; Breakout Imminent
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/stocks/google-goog-gaining-strength-breakout-imminent/

2. Bulls Running on Fumes; Stock of Day – Heico (HEI)
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/weeklyafter-stock-market-review-archives/bulls-running-on-fumes-stock-of-day-heico-hei/

Bulls Running on Fumes; Stock of Day – Heico (HEI)

It’s days like today that really reveal the weakness or in this case strength of a market.  China’s continued attempt to slow its market brought the bears out from hiding, but as we’ve seen over the past few months they just couldn’t exert any control.  Traders continue to see these dips as buying opportunities rather than a signal to head for the exits.  It wasn’t long before the entire gap down was erased and hawkish Fed statements (no life in housing, concerns over inflation) added fuel to the fire on renewed hopes of a rate cut.  That sent shorts scrambling and the Dow to a new all time high.  While volume levels weren’t all that impressive (just a hair above average), today’s action does constitute a day of accumulation.  So, was last Thursday’s big distribution just an aberration?  Considering selling volume on that day and the trend towards distribution over the past couple weeks, the answer is no in my opinion.  I still believe this market is running out of gas, but how long it will run on fumes is anyone’s guess.  With an avalanche of economic data coming in the next two days, we’ll have a much better idea.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day May 30th 2007

Accumulation in all indices.

Nasdaq: UP .80% today with volume just a hair ABOVE  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP .81%, volume 25% ABOVE average
Dow: UP .83%, volume also just a hair ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP .78%, volume 44% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP .81%, volume 23% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP  .56%, volume 8% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks fared well today and beat the performance of the major indices.  However, there wasn’t a ton of conviction behind the move in leading stocks today.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 320 to 100
* Advancers were up an average of 1.67% today, with volume 2% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.32% with volume 12% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP  .95% today with volume 4% ABOVE the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/si/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Semiconductors, Transports, Agriculture, Networking, Nanotech, Aerospace/Defense
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Gold Miners, Biotech

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Real Estate, Telecom, Materials, Utilities

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Gold, Semis

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Today’s stock is Heico (HEI), which broke out to a new all time high following an impressive earnings report.

ABOUT:  HEICO Corporation (HEICO), through its subsidiaries, is a manufacturer of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)-approved jet engine and aircraft component replacement parts, other than the original equipment manufacturers and their subcontractors. HEICO is also a manufacturer of various types of electronic equipment for the aviation, defense, space, medical, telecommunications and electronics industries. It operates in two business segments: The Flight Support Group and The Electronic Technologies Group. HEICO’s Flight Support Group consists of HEICO Aerospace Holdings Corp. (HEICO Aerospace) and its subsidiaries, which accounted for 71% of its net sales during the fiscal year ended October 31, 2006 (fiscal 2006). Its Electronic Technologies Group consists of HEICO Electronic Technologies Corp. and its subsidiaries, which accounted for 29% of its net sales in fiscal 2006. In May 2006, HEICO, through its HEICO Aerospace Holdings Corp. subsidiary, acquired Arger Enterprises, Inc.

FUNDAMENTALS: Heico (HEI) has not only posted outstanding growth over the past three years (about 30% year over year), but it’s done so with consistency from quarter to quarter.  While growth is expected to slow just a bit, the company is expected to continue to post very good growth over the next 2 years of about 20%.   Add to that solid net margins and ROE of about 11% and strong management ownership of 30% and Heico is a company that should keep flying high.

TECHNICAL:  After reporting earnings that beat the whisper of .34 cents a share (they reported .35) and boosting its full year outlook, the stock broke out of a 6 month base to a new all time high.  With today’s volume coming in at nearly 4x the daily average, this is a strong breakout.  This kind of action typically signals further upside action in the coming weeks.  It should be noted that the stock is a thin one (trades just 61K shares a day on average), so it can be volatile at times. 

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 50/60 (26/30 for fundamentals, 24/30 for technical), Heico (HEI) is a very good breakout stock.

Full Disclosure/Disclaimer: The stock of the day is by no means a buy recommendation.  Please do your own research and make a personal decision based on your own tolerance for risk.  I currently do not own a position in Heico (HEI).

Google (GOOG) Gaining Strength, Breakout Imminent

Due to meandering action over the past several months, Google (GOOG) hasn’t been a hot stock in trader circles for quite awhile (as evidenced by the declining trading volume) and that’s just the way I like it.  After all, big breakouts occur when most people aren’t watching.  That big breakout is coming very soon in my opinion.  As volume dries up, price has been getting squeezed at around 475.  Eventually, it’s gotta give.  The most likely scenario in this kind of formation is a breakout in the direction of the preceding trend which in this case is up.  One more high volume move from Google (which would indicate a breakout from this bullish triangle formation) and look out above!

Note: this chart snapshot was taken yesterday – this morning Google is breaking out of this formation.  However, I wouldn’t get aggressive on the long side just yet with the market a bit shaky up here.  Good place to begin dabbling though.

Disclaimer: I do have a long term position in Google and will be adding more soon.

google goog stock chart breakout

Avalanche of Economic Data Looms; Utilities Break Down; Hot Solar IPO – LDK Solar

With two more days of distribution last week and 5 total over the past two weeks, the market is changing character and ripe for consolidation/correction.  The bulls made another impressive stand on Friday as bears were not able to follow through on Thursday’s fairly intense selling, but the light, pre-holiday trading volume rendered the move insignificant.  We’ll have to wait until later next week as trading volume returns to more normal levels and an avalanche of ecomonic reports hit the market.  For now, it appears the bulls are beginning to run out of gas.  As we head into a historically weak period of the market, now is not a bad time to be sitting on a large cash position waiting for the next round of opportunities to emerge.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

With the long awaited deterioration of the market setting in a bit, I positioned the portfolio to be more aggressive position on the short side (total allocation 35% on the short side) this week with 4 new small short positions.  During the week, 2 positions were closed for losses – one short position covered in BKS for a 10% loss and a long position in COGO closed quickly for a 5% loss after dropping below support of the 50 day moving average.  I will most likely sit with a 35% short position and look to add more long positions on any significant selling in the market.  I’m currently only 31% on the long side with a significant (34%) cash position.  After leaning the wrong way for much of the past several weeks, I’m still looking to get back in synch with this market after a strong performance in the first few months of the year.  With the YTD performance at 4% (compared to 6.9%), I’ve got my work cut out for me in the latter half of the year.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Gaming Activities: 6.05%
2. Resorts & Casinos: 4.95%
3. Long Distance Carriers: 4.95%
4. Computer Based Systems: 4.90%
5. Toy & Hobby Stores: 4.30%
6. Drug Delivery: 4.30%
7. Residential Construction:  4.05%
8. Building Materials & Wholesale: 3.20%
9. Pollution & Treatment Controls: 3.15%
10. Copper: 3.10%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Diversified Utilities: -4.05%
2. Electric Utilities: -3.85%
3. Semiconductor – Broadline: -3.50%
4. Tobacco Products: -3.25%
5. Department Stores: -2.90%
6. Data Storage Devices: -2.90%
7. Silver: -2.70%
8. Auto Parts Stores: -2.20%
9. Electronics Wholesale: -2.10%
10. Publishing – Periodicals: -2.05%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Chile Fund (CH)  7.80%
2. PowerShares Agriculture (DBA) 4.50%
3. Ishares Home Construction (ITB) 3.25%
4. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) 2.60%
5. Powershares Clean Energy (PBW) 2.50%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA)  -5.70%
2. Powershares Dynamic Utilities (PUI) -4.20%
3. SPDR Utilities (XLU) -4.05%
4. Ishares Utilities (IDU) -4.00%
5. HLDRS Utilities (UTH) -3.90%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

Seems like a new solar related IPO hits the market every week and LDK Solar is another one that should generate significant interest.

1. LDK Solar (LDK): The company, via subsidiary Jiangxi LDK Solar, turns polysilicon into multicrystalline wafers, which are used in the construction of solar cells and solar modules. The company’s wafers are between 180 and 240 microns thick. It also provides wafer processing services to solar cell makers and sells polysilicon scrap. LDK uses virgin polysilicon and recycled material in its production process; it’s capacity is about 215 megawatts (MW) annually. Major customers include Canadian Solar, Chinalight Solar, Solarfun Power, and Solland Solar though most of the company’s revenues come from Chinese buyers. Founder Xiaofeng Peng owns about 83% of LDK.   Set to start trading on Friday.

2. Response Genetics (RGDX): Founded in 1999, the company develops technology used in a variety of clinical diagnostic tests for treating cancer. Its products remove and analyse genetic information from about 30,000 genes taken from cancer tumor samples. The tests help predict a patient’s response to chemotherapy and recovery from surgery, as well as the potential for cancer recurrence. Among its clients are Eli Lilly, Taiho Pharmaceuticals, and Roche Diagnostics.  Trading set to start on Thursday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (5/28/07 – 6/1/07) :::

Monday:        Holiday
Tuesday:       Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:  FOMC Minutes, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, GDP (prelim), Chicago PMI, Construction Spending
Friday:           Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Personal Income, Personal Spending
                      Core PCE Inflation, ISM Index, Pending Home Sales, Auto Sales

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: Verifone Holdings (PAY)
Wednesday: Joy Global (JOYG), HEICO Corp (HEIC)

The Selling Was Coming & You Were Ready

::: Today’s Market Action :::

As subtle as it may be, the market always shows its hand.  It rarely plays out the way you think it will or when you think it will (I was a few weeks early), but it plays out… when many traders least expect it.  There have been all kinds of reasons given on CNBC and other investing sites as to why this market will rise higher – everything from more dollars chasing fewer companies (through M&A, which is ridiculous), to everyone expecting the market to correct, to… oh it doesn’t matter.  Why? Because you  are a savvy trader and knew better.   You don’t need to cloud your judgement with the opinions of others.  You relied on what the charts were telling you.  You noticed that this market ran straight up after a severe drop back in February and was getting into considerably overbought territory.  You noticed that 7 out of the past 10 days the S&P500 showed bearish action (which is a good measure of the broad market).  You noticed that the S&P was flirting with previous record closing highs, a significant source of resistance.  Suffice it to say.  You knew better.  You were ready.  You knew the selling was coming.

It’s hard to say just how far we fall from here.  Heck, I suppose this is just the beginning of another quick shakeout like we saw in February but I highly doubt it.  I don’t think the market falls off a cliff, but it’s not going anywhere for awhile.  The important thing is to get out of the way and let it ride out. 

The S&P has broken through its steep upward channel but the Dow has a ways to go before even testing that level (which indicates how overbought it was).  The Nasdaq was never as overextended and it is actually quite close to a critical support area of the February highs and the 50 day moving average (2500 – 2525).  We could hit these levels tomorrow.

Here’s a look at the S&P:

The daily chart shows the break down below the steep upward channel with heavy volume today.

S&P500 trendline break

Here’s a detailed look at the trading action of the past couple weeks, which has shown deteriorating action for the most part.  It began on May 10th with a big day of distribution and continued from there.  Most of the up days occurred with lower volume buying along with a few higher volume reversal days.  All in all, characteristics of a toppy market.  Is it coincidence that we were seeing this kind of action around the previous record closing highs of the S&P.  Not a chance.

I’ll have a look at all the major indices in a report this weekend..

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day May 24th 2007

Distribution across all indices today.

Nasdaq: DOWN 1.52% today with volume 18% ABOVE  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) DOWN 1.43%, volume 79% ABOVE average
Dow: DOWN .62%, volume 6% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): DOWN .60%, volume 187% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): DOWN .91%, volume 75% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): DOWN  1.20%, volume 45% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  As expected, leading stocks got hit a bit harder then the overall market.

Summary:

* Decliners led Advancers 365to 55
* Advancers were up an average of 1.22% today, with volume 34% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 2.32% with volume 19% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was DOWN  1.85% today with volume 21% ABOVE the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/si/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Agriculture, Internet, Transports, Networking, Semis, Biotech
                                               
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Realty, REIT, Gold Miners, US Oil

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
None

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Gold Miners, Oil & Gas Services, Utilitities, Gold

::: Stocks :::

I’m short on time tonight so no stock of the day, but I will say the RIMM is showing very bullish action.  I’m a big fan of stocks that go up on days like today.  RIMM was just a handful of those.  Keep an eye on it.  It recently broke out from a lengthy consolidation.

How To Beat the Stock Market – Buy Companies High In Customer Satisfaction?

I came across an interesting story over the weekend at the Consumerist.com about a study published in the Journal of Marketing claiming well above average returns in the stock market by focusing on companies that score in the top 20% of the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI).  I don’t place much importance on theoretical gains based on backtesting and paper profits but from 1996-2003, the portfolio outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 93%, the S&P 500 by 201%, and NASDAQ by 335%.  I won’t go into the details of the study here, but the bottom line is that treating employees well leads to happy employees, leads to less turnover, leads to lower customer costs, leads to higher customer satisfaction which all leads to greater company profits and a higher stock price!  While customer satisfaction scores may be important for the long term, Warren Buffett style investor, I’ll stick to technical analysis for entries and exits.

So which companies are leading the way in customer satisfaction now?  I’ve listed only the top companies in each industry – you can get the full lists at the ASCI website

  • Restaurants: Olive Garden – it’s owned by Darden Restaurants (DRI) [score: 80]
  • Limited Service Restaurants – Starbux (SBUX) [78] and Wendy’s (WEN) [78]
  • Hotels – Marriot (MAR) [79]
  • Cable & Satellite – DirectTV [67]
         * interesting to note that Comcast which is the subject of frustration for many consumers scored near the bottom with   [56] although I’ve never had any problems with them
  • Cell Phones – Motorola (MOT) [72]
  • Fixed Line Phone Service- Verizon (VZ) [72] and Qwest (Q) [72]
  • Wireless Phone Service – Verizon (VZ) [71]
  • Airlines – Southwest (LUV) [76]
  • Express Delivery – Fed Ex (FDX) [84]
  • Energy Utilities – Southern Company (SO) [82]
  • Ecommerce – Ebay (EBAY) [80]
  • Internet Brokerage – Charles Schwab (SCHW) [80]
  • Internet Retail – Barnes & Noble (BKS) [88] & Amazon (AMZN) [87]
  • Internet Travel – Expedia (EXPE) [78]
  • Finance & Insurance – Wachovia (WB) [80]
  • Property & Casualty Insurance – GEICO [83] which is owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)
  • Department & Discount Stores – Kohl’s (KSS) [80]
  • Health & Personal Care Stores – CVS Corp (CVS) [78]
  • Specialty Retail – Costco [81]
  • Supermarkets – Publix Super Markets (private) [83]; Kroger (KR) is second with score of 76
  • Apparel – Sarah Lee (SLE) since when does Sarah Lee make apparel?
  • Athletic Shoes – Reebok [78] which is owned by Adidas and doesn’t trade in US market; Nike (NKE) is next best option
  • Breweries – Molson/Coors (TAP) [83]
  • Food Manufacturing – HJ Heinz (HNZ) [87]
  • Personal Care & Cleaning Products – Clorox (CLX) [86]
  • Soft Drinks – Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) [86] & Pepsi (PEP) [86]
  • Internet News – USATODAY.com owned by Gannet (GCI) [74] & CNN.com owned by Time Warner (TWC) [74]
  • Internet Portals – Yahoo (YHOO) [76]
  • Internet Search Engines – Google (GOOG) [81]
  • Automobiles – Toyota (TM) [87]
  • Appliances – Whirlpool (WHR) [82] & General Electric (GE) [82]
  • Personal Computers – Apple (AAPL)

That’s quite a list of outstanding blue chip companies!  I’ll have to revisit this post in a year and see how these companies did collectively vs. the S&P500.

Bulls Charge Again; Hot IPO – Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE)

This is a much abbreviated report tonight – I’ve been focused on research, database updates and other projects this weekend.  Full report to resume next Sunday.

On Friday, the market surged higher on more merger mania.  This time it was Microsoft’s desperate attempt to play catch up with Google by shelling out 6 billion for online advertising services company Aquantive.  The move on Friday had conviction behind it and reverses several days of deteriorating action.  The Nasdaq broke out of a short downtrend,  the S&P reclaimed its steep upward channel and the Dow once again move to a new record high.  With more merger/buyout mania being announced just in the past few hours the market will undoubtedly surge again.  Wow.

* Hologic agreed to buy Cytyc for $6.2 billion in cash and stock, in a deal that combines two major players in women’s health care.

* UniCredit agreed to acquire Capitalia in a stock deal valued at $29.7 billion, creating the world’s fifth-largest bank by market value and highlighting the consolidation drive in Europe’s banking sector.

* China plans to invest $3 billion in private-equity firm Blackstone. The landmark deal signals the country’s determination to earn higher returns on reserves and could help restore some equilibrium to its accounts with the U.S

* TPG AND GOLDMAN SACHS are in the final stages of negotiating a purchase of wireless operator Alltel for about $25 billion.

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE): The company operates about 170 gas stations in the US and Canada where its 200 customers can tank up their fleet vehicles with compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). Clean Energy also helps customers buy and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain government incentives. The company buys CNG from local utilities and produces LNG at its 35-million-gallon-capacity plant in Texas. Clean Energy plans to use IPO proceeds to build a LNG plant in the Western US and to buy fleet vehicles that it will later sell to customers. Founder and billionaire oilman Boone Pickens owns about 73% of the company.    Trading set to begin on Friday.

2. RSC Equipment Rentals (RRR): RSC Holdings, which operates as RSC Equipment Rental, is one of North America’s top equipment rental firms. RSC supplies heavy equipment to contractors for road construction and commercial and residential buildings. It also serves industrial customers in the petrochemical, pulp and paper, and food and beverage markets. Along with its rental activities, the company sells used equipment and offers related tools, supplies, and support services. Trading set to begin on Wednesday.

3. Greenlight Capital (GLRE): Greenlight Capital Re (Greenlight Re) gives the go-ahead to insurance companies looking to offset their losses. Through operating subsidiary Greenlight Reinsurance, the company sells property/casualty reinsurance, specializing in writing customized contracts in underserved markets, including casualty clash, homeowners insurance in some states (particularly Florida), marine, and property catastrophe. It also provides medical malpractice and workers’ compensation reinsurance.  Trading set to begin Thursday.

4. B & G Foods (BGS): manufactures, sells and distributes a diverse portfolio of shelf-stable food products across the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. The CompanyGÇÖs products include hot cereals, jams, jellies and fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, spices, seasonings, marinades, hot sauces, wine vinegar, maple syrup, molasses, salad dressings, Mexican-style sauces, taco shells and kits, salsas, pickles, peppers and other specialty food products. It distributes these products to retailers through a direct-store-delivery sales and distribution system and through a nationwide network of independent brokers and distributors. The CompanyGÇÖs principal brands include Ortega, Cream of Wheat, Las Palmas, Polaner, Regina and All Fruit.  Trading set to begin on Wednesday

5.  Starlims Technologies (LIMS): leading provider of laboratory information management systems, or LIMS and have over 20 years experience in the LIMS market.  They develop, market and sell configurable off-the-shelf LIMS software solutions trade-named STARLIMS®. STARLIMS manages the collection, processing, storage, retrieval and analysis of information generated in laboratories. The software improves the reliability of sampling processes, supports compliance with domestic and international regulations and industry standards, and provides comprehensive reporting, monitoring and analysis capabilities.  One of the first LIMS vendors to offer a true web-based, configurable off-the-shelf, LIMS solution, which enables its customers to manage their globally distributed laboratories more efficiently and effectively.  Trading set to begin on Thursday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (5/21/07 – 5/25/07) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       None
Wednesday:  Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, Durable Orders, New Home Sales
Friday:           Existing Home Sales

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: GigaMedia (GIGM), American Eagle Outfittes (AEOS), Global Sources (GSOL), The9 Limited (NCTY)

Wednesday: Network Appliance (NTAP), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Ansoft (ANST), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Zumiez (ZUMZ)                                                     
                    
Thursday: CitiTrends (CTRN)