All posts by Tate Dwinnell

I’ve Lost My Confidence!


Hi Tate,
How are you doing investing?  I feel like I have lost my confidence and am having a hard time getting back into it.  We are primarily in cash right now.  I actually picked up AUO again on Friday.  After I saw it starting to climb and seeing the IBD article.  I originally had 1500 shares previously and now I only have 500.  I am on a fence about it. Why so much selling?  On one hand I feel that it has a lot of potential but on the other I also am scared by the selling pressure. It seems so hard to find a leader these days.  I sometimes think that my investing days might be over. It can drive you crazy.  I just think if I could make one good gain.  I will have my confidence back.  The market seems so unsteady right now though. It’s frustrating though.  I have a friend that every stock he picks turns to gold.  He tells me about them but they seem lackluster and then they are stars so soon.  He bought SAFM and I think it is up like 17 pts. in a month.  When he told me I thought (Mad cow scare is over and it might be too high because of the scare, well I was wrong.) He bought CTSH and made 8K.  It wears on you.  Hearing the good news and looking at your portfolio and being in the red.  I just always wish it could be me.  Do you have any advice?  I’d appreciate any that you could give me.  I could start small and learn as I go.

My Response:

I certainly understand where you’re coming from… I have been in your shoes
at one time or another.  Yes, the market can drive you crazy!  Don’t get
discouraged! If I go through a period of unsuccessful trades, I’ll take a
step back and look at the trades I made.  I’ll look at the chart and ask
myself why I made the trade.. usually if it’s a bad trade is because I
thought I was "missing" out if I didn’t get in right now even though the
chart didn’t look great or it was a bit extended.  Be patient and always
wait for your price, because it will alway come.  Also, be careful about
trying to make all your money back in one trade.  After experiencing a big
loss, it’s natural to want to try and find the "big winner" that will make
it all back.  Don’t get caught in this trap.. continue to invest in the best
companies with great looking charts.  But more importantly only stay
invested when the market is strong and try to stay invested in industries
that are leading the market.  Currently, its finance, medical and oil.

You’re right that the market is unsteady.. after signaling a breakout on
Wednesday it turned tail and reversed sharply.  You don’t see that too
often.  It’s good you’re primarily in cash right now.. you’ll be ready when
this market makes another good run. 

Highly Rated Joy Global (JOYG) and Bitstream (BITS) Miss Badly, Sell Off


  • Amerisafe (AMSF) Insurance – Accident & Health, fundamental rank [24/30],  up 8%, getting kick off 50dma and into new all time highs
  • Interdigital Comm (IDCC) Wireless Communication, fundamental rank [25/30],  up 4%, sold off hard at open and dipped below 200dma before roaring back above 50dma


  • Bitstream (BITS) Application Software, fundamental rank [27/30],  down 29%, some support at 6 but this stock won’t be going anywere for a long time (I recently featured BITS as a stock of the day and it rated highly fundamentally and technically – not after its latest report.  Another reason to avoid holding a stock through earnings.
  • Joy Global (JOYG) Farm & Construction Machinery, fundamental rank [28/30],  down 13%, once promising setup for a run higher is now broken
  • Integra Life Sciences (IART) Biotech, fundamental rank [26/30],  down 5%, breaking support of 50dma with huge volume