Question:

So, how do I get informed of new additions and removals?  I noticed that there are quite a few that were introduced in the early 2004.  Would stock be removed from the watch list?

My Response:

You can sort by the Date Added column to see what stocks have been added recently.
I typically delete stocks from the breakout tracker if they’ve dropped below
the 200 day movig average.  That ‘s why you may see stocks in the database
for a long period without being removed.  Once the stock carves out a new
base, I change the pivot price and remove the B/O date to reflect the
current base.  I think in the future I will change the Date Added if I
change the pivot so those will be included in the stocks that were recently
added as well. 

Comments & My Response to one member

"I think it is better to find good stocks, then look for dips or a base."
That’s what the database is for.  It allows you to find top stocks very quickly and determine what stage they are at (ie. near B/O, already B/O, finding support, breaking down, etc.)  I know you aren’t a believer in technical analysis, but it’s the charts that reveal the future of the company.  Somebody always knows something and that shows up in price and volume levels.  In addition the common shapes of the charts reveal human emotions of fear and greed which never change.  Enron was thought to be a good company and good stock at one time, but the technical action revealed what was about to unfold.  A more recent example which I have discussed on this site several times in the past is DHB Industries.  Here was a company that was receiving order after order, yet insiders and some institutions were selling big time.  There was a clear divergence beteween the current fundamentals and news and what the chart was saying.  Fundamentals and news don’t tell the whole truth, charts almost always do.  On the other side of the equation, notice that some stocks will soar even though the fundamentals are awful.  What happens several months down the road?  You got it, the company starts announcing new products, improving sales and earnings.  The charts forecast the future – it’s as simple as that.
 
"Your return of 30% on your portfolio last year is impressive, but Jubak had a 29+% return on his"
I like Jubak and think he has some good suggestions, but it’s a weekly column and doesn’t give specific buy and sell points if I’m not mistaken.  It’s more of a hypothetical rather than an actively managed portfolio.  The focus on my service is teaching the investor while profiting.  That’s why I send detailed alerts, trading notes, technical analysis, etc.  I want investors to know why I’m selecting a particular stock and why I’m selling. 
 
"One concept I can’t get my arms around is drawing a line from some artifact on a chart 6 months back and trying extrapolate into the future"
Again, going back to what I said above, the reason this "technical analysis" works is because history repeats itself over an over again.  Why?  Because investor emotions of fear and greed will never change.  Support and resistance areas also manifest themselves because they are watched by so many investors – a self fulfilling prophecy if you will.  Technical analysis is absolutely critical.  Think of it this way.  You look at the fundamentals to choose a stock and use technical analysis to determine when to buy and sell that stock.  Short term traders use more technical analysis, while longer term buy and hold investors will base decisions more on the fundamentals.  I recommend something in between. 

Comment:

Thank you so much for your detail explanation.  It seems to have boosted my confidence a lot.  You know, sometimes, I think the system you have laid out is so straight  forward.  It makes me wonder ??. But, it seems to convince me that it should work.

My Response:

One thing you said caught my attention: " You know, sometimes, I think the
system you have laid out is so straight forward.  It makes me wonder ??.
But, it seems to convince me that it should work."

It doesn’t have to be complicated to be successful.  A big mistake that many
investors make is thinking that the more tools and indicators they have, the
more successful they will be.  You don’t need all the indicators and in my
biased opinion 🙂 I believe the only tool you need is the SelfInvestors
service!  If you have a firm understand of support/resistance and price/volume
movements along with discipline and the ability to master your emotions, you
WILL be successful.

1) I only buy from your list of stocks in the breakout tracker
2) I gather possibilities the prior evening and put them in a watch list using Medved Quote Tracker. This gives me real time tracking the next day. Real time alerts are also set in QT for my mental buy stops.
3) Unless the market is on a tear (I think I’ve forgotten what that is) I won’t buy until 30-60 minutes after the open. A couple of times I’ve gotten lucky because by the time I have gotten your buy alert the market has changed to a more favorable condition for my buy. I’m convinced you planned it that way for us amateurs.
4) Right after making a buy I set my sell stop at 5% or less. As soon as I make more than $20, I bring my sell stop to just above break even (including commissions and spread costs). If I can stay home and watch the market (which I can do a couple days a week) I keep adjusting my trailing stop by finding an intraday support and bringing my stop to just below that. Granted I have missed some great runs but the chance of finding one of those in the current market is pretty dismal.
5) Your hammering on money management finally woke me up to stop wishing the market would do what I want after I pull the trigger. I’ve only been holding positions for a short time — about six days on average, although the time gets shorter each week.