Notable Earnings: Coach (COH), LCA Vision (LCAV), Chicago Mercantile (CME)

OK, time to roll up the sleeves.. earnings are pouring in today.  This morning I just have time to highlight the 3 highest rated companies reporting, but will try and post an update later this morning and list stocks that are moving as a result of their earnings report.

[27/30]

Coach (COH), the high end retailer, posted a very strong quarter again this morning and beat estimates by a penny. Earnings growth improved 53% over the year ago quarter as margins continue to rise, while revenues increased 30% for the same period.  In addition the company has raised guidance for next quarter and the full year.  The stock is currently holding steady above support of the 200 day moving average and in process of carving out a base.  Today’s earnings report should spark the stock into a significant move up the right side of a base,  The stock is up nearly 5% in premarket trading.

Chicago Mercantile (CME), the derivative market operator for futures and options, beat by a penny as earnings grew 29% per share with revenue growth 22%.  That’s a strong quarter for any company, but when your stock has risen more than 100% in a year and eight fold since its IPO in 2002, anything less than a blow out quarter can lead to some profit taking.  The stock is down just a bit after hours.  It should be noted that the stock has a history of selling off after earnings, but bounces back quickly. 

Chicago

turned it around in 2001, but really ramped up its growth in 2004.  However the company is showing some signs of slowing down.  The stock broke out from a base back in the middle of December and is currently marching higher after testing the 50 day moving average. What stock will hit 400 first?  Google or Chicago?

LCA Vision (LCAV) Blow Out Earnings!, the leader in laser eye surgery centers, posted earnings of .37/share which smashed estimates of .30/share.  That’s quarter over quarter growth of 118% as revenue grew 51%.  Margins increased in the period and the company raised ’05 guidance significantly.  After an amazing run in which the stock price nearly quadrupled in a year, the stock has been carving out a base since July and is currently breaking out of the downtrend to form the right side of a base.  That breakout will continue with force today – the stock is up 15% in premarket trading.

Notable Earnings: Google (GOOG), XTO Energy (XTO), Getty Images (GYI)

The big report after the bell today came from Google (GOOG) (fundamental rank 29/30) and they smashed estimates, with no evidence of any summer slowdown.  I can’t imagine what they will report after this quarter which is typically the busiest time for internet times.  Just incredible numbers.  Excluding one time charges, the company posted earnings of 1.36 share on revenue (after traffic acquisition costs) of 1.05 billion, good for an increase of 116% and 110% respectively.  It will be interesting to see how Google’s numbers hold up as MSN, Yahoo (soon to release PPC system for small publishers called YPN) and many Google wannabe’s launch similar products.  Google will have to continue to improve the Adsense and Adwords program and keep it innovative in order to defend its turf in this area and maintain this kind of growth.  Especially considering it’s more than 90% of the company’s revenue.  It will be very interesting to see how this industry unfolds in the coming years.  No surprise that Google soared after the close and will break out to all time highs tomorrow.

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One of the highest ranked oil and natural gas companies in the database reported after the bell today. XTO Energy (XTO) [27/30], beat both wall st. estimates as well as the whisper number by reporting earnings growth of 95% on revenue of growth of 90%.  The company has posted accelerating growth in the last 3 quarters.  As is the case with just about every oil company, the stock is having trouble staying above the 50 day moving average, but should get a boost tomorrow.  The stock is up just .25/share in after hours trading though.

The online image business appears to remain very strong as Getty Images (GYI) [rank 26/30] posted a 46% increase in earnings from the year ago period citing higher prices and volume.  That beat analyst estimates by .03/share.  Revenue was also strong in the quarter at 20% growth and topped analyst estimates by 1.4 million.  The company continues to grow profit margins and has done so for the past 3 years.  The stock is a bit after hours and is currently carving out a base on base pattern, but remains below support of the 50 day moving average.

Notable Earnings: Amgen (AMGN), Satyam (SAY)

Lots of earning to run through tonight.. i’ll be fairly brief.  Lots of research to do and new features to implement over at the member site.  Once again I start with companies with the best fundamental score and will then highlight the best of the rest (Note: these scores don’t include the latest results)

Companies with Fundamental score of [26/30]

Satyam Computer (SAY), the Indian outsourcer reported earnings and revenues that beat analyst estimates handily with revenue and net profit increasing 34% from the year ago period.  Satyam looks very good technically and may bounce nicely off the 50 day moving average tomorrow.  However this is a group that is very week.  Its competitors (INFY, WIT, CTSH) all look more and more like short opportunities every day.

Amgen (AMGN) is getting hit in after hours trading after posting revenue growth below estimates.  Excluding one time charges the company posted earnings of .85/share which beat analyst estimates of .83/share as well as the whisper number of .84/share.  That’s a 33% increase over the year ago period.  The problem is in the revenue, which just missed analyst estimates by 40 million and rose by just 16% from the year ago period.  It marks the first time in several years that the company posted quarter over quarter revenue growth below 20%.

Navteq Corp (NVT), a GPS maps/navigation company, beat revenue estimates, but missed on earnings by a penny when excluding a one time tax benefit.  The stock had been strong technically, but looks like it may knife through the 50 day moving average tomorrow, at least at the open.

Best of the Rest

LifeLine Systems (LIFE) [25/30] a leader provider of personal response services, grew earnings 24% and revenue 17% from the year ago period which beat analyst estimates.  This is an incredibly consistent company and this kind of result has been automatic for the last several years.  The stock is currently forming a good looking long shallow base.

Labor Ready (LRW) [24/30] beat both revenue and earnings estimates with growth in earnings and revenue of 40% and 22% respectively.  The stock is soaring over 25% after hours.  The didn’t blow out estimates, so not sure why the steep rise, but gross margins continued to improve in the quarter and also raised guidance.

Harman Intl (HAR) [24/30] blew out estimates and beat by .12/share, but revenue growth continues to come in on the light side with quarter over quarter growth of just 9%.  Revenue was shy of estimates.  But appears Wall St. likes the earnings as well as in the increased guidance for ’06.  The stock is up over $4 and may break out of consolidation tomorrow.

Covance (CVD) [24/30], a contract pharma testing company, posted earnings growth of 24% (in line) on revenue growth of 15%.  Margins increased and the company raised guidance for ’05.  Results this quarter were solid, but it marked the end of 5 straight quarters of accelerating earnings and revenue growth.  The stock is currently carving out the right side of a base on base pattern and looks strong technically.

Massive Capitulation

Wow, the market never ceases to surprise does it.  Just yesterday the Nasdaq hit resistance as institutions favored selling once again which led to yet another day of distribution (for the sixth time this month).  That momentum continued in the first hour or so of trading.  I remember looking at the SelfInvestors Leading Stocks Index over there on the right and seeing decliners outnumbering advancers by 4 to 1 with heavy volume.  Looking over there now and you can see it has completely reversed!  This kind of move most likely signals that a bottom has been put in (at Nasdaq 2025, Dow 10233, and S&P 1168).  However, the indices still face resistance.. and very soon, possibly tomorrow.  It will be very interesting to see how the Dow handles 10,500, the Nasdaq 2100 and the S&P 1200.  Those are key resistance levels.  I would imagine that the indices will retreat from those areas with light selling volume and will need a few tries to finally push back above those levels.  Pay close attention to which stocks/industries/sectors lead in the coming days.  They will be your leaders should the market stage a year end rally.  I’ve got my eye on anything medical related and still feel like we haven’t seen the end of the oil run.  Take a look at one of the first oil companies to report this earnings season – Lufking Industries (LUFK).  Whether oil is at 70, 60 or 55, they will continue to make huge profits.

Notable Earnings: USANA Health (USNA) & Gilead Sciences (GILD)

Some big names reported after the bell today, namely Intel, Yahoo and Motorola, but these earnings posts will focus on some of the more obscure fast growing companies that don’t get the coverage. Again, SelfInvestors.com fundamental rank in brackets.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) [28/30]

The highest rated company reporting after the bell today with a SelfInvestors.com fundamental rank of 28/30 is Gilead Sciences (GILD).  This is a company that just consistently keeps posting solid growth every quarter.  This time around the company reported earnings of .38/share on revenue of growth of 493.5 million, good for growth of 52% and 51% respectively over the year ago quarter, which beat analyst expectations of .36/share and the "whisper number" of .37/share.

Highlights:

  • Sales of its new HIV drug Truvada grew 32%
  • Sales of its Hepititus B drug Hepsera grew 58%
  • Royalties earned on its antiviral drug Tamiflu, which countries have been stockpiling due to the potential of an avian bird flu outbreak soared to 12.1 mill, from 1.7mill in the year ago period (note: Gilead said Roche had breached the companies’ Tamiflu marketing agreement. The companies were unable to resolve the dispute and are currently in arbitration)
  • Company raised its outlook for 2005 sales of its HIV drugs

The stock is down a bit after hours.  Technically, it continues to look very strong despite a tough market.  It broke out of a base on 9/30 and remains in a buyable range.

USANA Health Sciences (USNA) [27/30]

USANA posted another good quarter but it wasn’t exceptional by any means.  The company beat analyst estimates with earnings growth of 31% on revenue growth of 20%, but that marks the 7th straight quarter of declining year over year revenue growth.  It appears the high growth days are over.  The company said 2006 revenue growth would be in the range of 15 – 20%.  A breakout of the stock failed at the end of September and has slipped back into a base, but above the 200 day moving average.  It’s trading down a bit after hours.

Top 10: Companies/ News Stories

I came across a couple interesting top 10 lists last night I thought I’d share here.  The first is the Forbes Top 10 Small Cap companies.

1.  Hansen Natural (HANS): monster energy drink
2. Cognizant Tech (CTSH): Indian outsourcer
3. Travelzoo (TZOO): online travel
4. Remington Oil (REM): oil and gas exploration, Gulf of Mexico
5. USANA Health Sciences (USNA): vitamin MLM company
6. Forward Industries (FORD): carrying cases for Motorolo Razr cell phone
7. Laserscope (LSCP): non invasive cosmetic procedures
8. Ceradyne (CRDN): body armor
9. American Healthways (AMHC): specialty medical services
10. Middleby (MIDD): commercial kitchen equipment, McDonald’s, KFC and Papa John’s

I would have to also add True Religion (TRLG), Infosys (INFY), Quality Systems (QSII), Google (GOOG) and Franklin Resources (BEN)

Here’s another Top 10 list for good measure.  It’s the the Street.com’s top 10 stories of last week.

1. Just Ahead: Dow 40,000?
A new breed of mega-bulls sees a monster-sized rally soon — here’s why they’re so optimistic.

2. Sea Change at Nortel
Admiral Bill Owens steps aside for Motorola veteran Mike Zafirovski.

3. Apple’s Next Big Thing
Above all, the expectation of future hot products will drive the company’s stock, say analysts.

4. Buy the Dip, Get Clipped
Traders eager to pounce on Apple-induced weakness quickly find themselves under water.

5. Bottom Drops Out of Nasdaq
Higher volume and a downside break spell more trouble. Plus charts of retail HOLDRs, Federated and more.

6. ‘RealMoney’ Radio Recap: Bottom’s Up? 
Market negativity is reaching its peak, says Cramer. Also, strong on Mister Softee.

7. Cramer’s ‘Mad Money Lightning Round’: Don’t Tax H&R Block
Cramer doesn’t understand the ‘opprobrium’ for this stock.

8. Biotech Ready to Deliver
Investors will soon see if their confidence is well-placed.

9. Cramer’s ‘Mad Money’ Recap: Riches in Cheap Threads
Cramer likes TJX, owner of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls discount retailers, when the consumer feels pressured.

10. Top Line Bruises Apple
The company beats earnings estimates, but investors focus on light revenue and iPod shipments.

Notable Earnings: Peabody Energy (BTU), Genzyme (GENZ), Freeport Copper & Gold (FCX)

Today really marks the kick off of the avalanche of earnings, so i’ll be increasing the frequency of earnings posts in the next couple weeks.  This morning a few earnings reports that interest me come from Peabody Energy (BTU), Genzyme (GENZ) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX).  In the last round of earnings reports posts I noted the overall SelfInvestors.com score which included the technical rank of the stock’s base.  This time around I’m only going to include the fundamental rank, since the stock may or may not be in the process of basing or just recently breaking out from the base.  Fundamental rank will appear in brackets (generally any score of 25 or above is very good).

Starting off with Genzyme (GENZ) [25/50], the company is reporting revenues that are up 24% over the year ago quarter driven by increases in all product areas.  The company matched the whisper number and beat estimates by posting earnings of .61/share, good  for a 38% increase over the year ago period.  Gross margins increases and the company is continuing to expand its manufacturing capacity internationally.  The stock is currently in the process of carving out a base.

Peabody Energy (BTU) [24/28], matched analyst estimates of .84/share which amounts to a whopping 161% increase over the year ago quarter on revenue growth of 33%.  The company raised guidance for ’05 but said the numbers would be sensitive to transportation issues which have plagued the coal industry this year.  The stock is down just a bit this morning but remains technically very strong and bounced off the 50 day moving average with good volume on Friday.

Freeport Copper & Gold (FCX) [24/28] Blow Out Earnings!, reported a very strong quarter riding the wave of higher gold and copper prices.  Excluding non recurring costs, the company reported earnings that beat estimates by .16 share.  Growth surged 760% over the year ago on revenue growth of 64%.  The stock is currently up about 1% and continues its bounce from the 50 day moving average a few days ago.

Stock Screener: Above 50 Day Moving Average, RS Rating Above 70

Today marks the first post where I’ll take a look at a particular screen of the SelfInvestors.com database.  A couple times a month I’ll run my custom stock screener and spit out a few stocks that might be worth watching, based on various criteria such as support levels, earnings estimates, relative strength, fundamental rank, technical rank, demand, etc.  Today’s screen spits out stocks that are above the 50 day moving average with an RS rating of above 70. 

Stocks that have held up during this latest correction are most likely to lead the way when the market turns up, so you’ll want to keep an eye on these gems.  The list is sorted by Total Rank by default, but you can sort by any column within Excel.  Only a screenshot of the first few are available here, but in order to access the full Excel download of the screen you’ll need create an account with SelfInvestors.com.  It’s entirely free and only takes a second.. Anyway, you may see a much larger screenshot of the screen and sign up for the full excel download here if you wish.

I look forward to the day when we all have monitors that are several feet across.. only then can I fit everything I want on one page!

Top Breakouts (10.01.05-10.14.05)

Another dismal two weeks for breakouts just as it was at the end of September with a total of just 10 breakouts.  The two top ranked stocks breaking out in the first two weeks of October, HDFC Bank (HDB) and Netlogic (NETL) reversed sharply after breaking and are 13% off the pivot point.  However, half of the breakouts managed to produce gains led by Nutrisystem (NTRI), which ended the period up 11% from the pivot.

As always, you may see a larger version of the screenshot of the database.

The stocks that did breakout and remain in a buyable range.. Online Resources (ORCC), Healthextras (HLEX), IRIS International (IRIS) and Adams Respiratory Therapeutics (ARXT) all look strong and may provide an opportunity for quick profits during a relief rally.

ETF, IPO & Breakout Stocks Analysis, Tracking & Research