Company Earnings

Notable Earnings: HouseValues.com (SOLD), Dynamic Materials (BOOM)

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Good morning – here are a two top companies that could move today on recently reported earnings announcements.  Scores in brackets are the proprietary fundamental score from SelfInvestors.com.

[26/30]

  • Housevalues.com (SOLD), the provider of internet based marketing for the real estate market reported a very strong quarter yesterday afternoon which should provide a bounce off support of a nice looking base.  EPS growth surged 129% over the year ago quarter with revenue growth of 82%. The company recently launched a very cool tool for consumers and real estate professionals called HomePages.com which combines the power of aerial maps, neighborhood information and real estate listings.

    The company has 6 pending patents covering novel aspects of its mapping technology applicable to real estate and various other commercial industries.  The company also recently announced the acquisition of The Loan Page Inc.  The Loan Page provides consumers with competitive offers from up to four lenders. The company markets these consumer requests to enterprise-level customers, including some of the nation’s largest banking and lending institutions. The Loan Page’s mortgage lead generation platform is expected to allow HouseValues to expand its mortgage offerings and meet a broad variety of mortgage industry needs by offering a comprehensive menu of online products.  The stock is up more than 10% in premarket trading.

  • Dyanamic Materials (BOOM) , which is engaged in high energy metallurgical bonding, isn’t showing any signs of slowing with another outstanding quarter reported this morning. The company reported EPS growth of 225% with revenue growth of 68% over the year ago quarter.  Margins increased in the quarter as well as the backlog of orders.  The stock broke out of a 6 month consolidation yesterday and may add to those gains this morning.

State of the Stock Market

Nasdaq Makes Biggest Move Since August ’04

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I know when my real time watchlist is a sea of green and the prices are flickering rapidly it’s a big day with volume.  However, it wasn’t until I took a look at the chart of the Nasdaq over the past year and a half that I realized how big the move was.  You have to back to the big rally of August ’04 to see the kind of price/volume move made today in the Nasdaq.  It’s certainly the kind of move that can propel the market past the next level of resistance and set up a showdown at multi year highs. 

While today’s move was big, the Nasdaq still faces an important test before making a run at multi year highs.  The downward trend line – an area it had been unable to clear on two previous occasions.  However, just as resistance at the 200 day moving average, 2100 and the 50 day moving average have proven insignificant, I believe the Nasdaq will have no trouble clearing this resistance level in time.  It may happen tomorrow, it may happen in two weeks.  But it will happen.

The S&P has shoved resistance levels aside as buy volume picks up substantially.  In addition, the market has been getting stronger as the trading day goes on and closing near the high.  All signs of a very healthy market.  The S&P may also face some resistance at the downward trend line.

..last and certainly least are the dogs of the Dow, which continue to lag its smaller, faster growing brethren.  I still hear people talking about a big blue chip rally, just as they have for the past few years.  I suppose if they just keep talking about it, they will eventually be right!!  How much money has Microsoft made you in the last 5 years?  Answer: zero, zilch.  Maybe the avalanche of new products can make their shareholders a little money in the next year.. we shall see. How about for IBM over the last 6 years?  You’re down about 40% and haven’t made a dime during the bull market that began in ’03. Wow!   Anyway, you can see the dismal Dow, where the 50 day conintues to lag under the 200 day moving average and strong resistance remains at 10,500.  On Monday the Dow closed in the lower half of the trading range and today, it lagged the Nasdaq and S&P significantly with much lighter volume. 

Company Earnings

Moving on Earnings: CB Richard Ellis (CBG) & Aspect Medical (ASPM)

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Good morning – I’m changing the format of the earnings posts for the morning due to time constraints.  Being on the West Coast doesn’t allow me much time to pour through a dozen earnings reports before the market opens, so I’m going to just post top companies that are moving on earnings in the morning.  I will continue to post more detailed reports on companies reporting after  the bell though.  Again, the fundamental rank will be displayed in brackets.

Cutera (CUTR) [25/30] up 20%
CB Richard Ellis [25/30] up 10% and breaking out
Hologic (HOLX) [24/30] up 7%
Blackboard (BBBB) [25/30] up 7%
Aspect Medical (ASPM) [24/30] up 7% and breaking out
HCC Insurance (HCC) [24/30] up 7%
Eagle Materials (EXP) [26/30] up 7%
Cal Dive (CDIS) [26/30] up 4%
EOG Resources [26/30] up 4%

Company Earnings

Notable Earnings: Panera (PNRA), Cal Dive (CDIS), Eagle Materials (EXP), ValueClick (VCLK), Cutera (CUTR) & Blackbooard (BBBB)

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Wanted to highlight a few top companies that delivered great results after the bell today.  The number you see in brackets is the Fundamental rank for the company, a proprietary indicator of SelfInvestors.com.

[26/30]

  • Panera Bread (PNRA), the fast growing producer of all things bread posted another great quarter, but didn’t smash estimates after the bell.  Growth was in line with estimates but year over year EPS growth of 31% stops the streak of accelerating earnings growth at 4 consecutive quarters.  Revenue growth came in at 32%.  The stock is in the process of forming a handle and may break out tomorrow… but I have a feeling it won’t.

  • Cal Dive Intl (CDIS) Blow Out Earnings!, another top tier oil company posted outstanding results.  No surprise here.  EPS growth from the year ago quarter came in at 78% which smashed estimates.  Revenue growth was equally impressive at 59%. The stock is currently carving out an ugly looking base and is up a bit a bit after hours.

  • Eagle Materials (EXP), Blow Out Earnings!, the manufacturer of basic materials cement and gypsum wallboard smashed estimates after the bell by .18/share and increased from the year ago period by 49%.  Revenues increased 36% in the same period.  The company guided in line for next quarter and ’06.  The stock is currently carving out a new base after running up 50% from May ’05.

  • ValueClick (VCLK), the provider of online advertising services reported a strong quarter and beat analyst estimates by a sizable margin, but 4th quarter guidance didn’t impress.  The company posted EPS growth of 31% with revenue growth of 87%.  However, the company is forecasting EPS of just .12 for next quarter and analysts were expecting .14.  Either way, the company is expected to posted negative earnings growth next quarter.  Clearly, ValueClick is no Google.

[25/30]

  • Cutera (CUTR) Blow Out Earnings!, the developer of light based products for aesthetic treatments blew away estimates and beat by .06/share, which was good for a quarter over quarter increase of 286%.  Revenue growth continues to accelerate and grew 49% over the year ago period.  Looking to next quarter the company sees EPS 61% higher than current analyst estimates and 38% higher for the full year ’05.  Shares are soaring after hours 20%.  The stock is well extended past a proper buy point.

  • Blackboard Inc (BBBB), the provider of software applications for the education industry, posted strong results after the bell and beat EPS estimates by .03/share.  Earnings growth over the year ago quarter came in at 56%, while revenue increased 21%.  The company guided a bit above consensus for next quarter and full year ’05.  Shares are up 3% in after hours trading.  The stock looks outstanding technically, but is currently out of a buyable range.

Company Earnings

Notable Earnings: Oshkosh Truck (OSK)

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Good morning! Notable earnings reports returns this morning .. just too much going on last week to to report here on all the earnings pouring in.  I want to highlight one outstanding company here this morning – Oshkosh Truck (OSK).

Oshkosh Truck [fundamental rank 26/30] is a designer and manufacturer of a broad range of specialty commercial, fire/emergency and military trucks.  It’s a company that grows earnings every year with consistency and has seen a big increase in growth since ’03.  Strong growth continued last quarter as the company beat earnings by a penny (growth of 42%) with revenue growth of 26%.  The company’s growth has been helped largely by the Pentagons’ need for replacement parts and servicing for heavy duty trucks.  Look for a potential breakout today from a long base.

Others that are moving up this morning on earnings:

GOL,CAS, RVSN, NNDS, VTAL

State of the Stock Market

A BIG step

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Falling crude prices, strong consumer spending, a little M&A… it all led to a decent follow through following Friday’s rally.  The resiliency that the market has shown in the past 2 days following the distribution at resistance of last Wednesday is impressive.  It appeared that the market would need more time and come closer to testing the lows of the correction, but true to form over the course of October, it whipsawed back the other way. .. essentially putting us right back in the same position we were in last week.   While the market is much healthier than a week ago and gaining strength, strong resistance remains in all indices.  On any pullback from here, watch to see if old resistance acts as new support, which would provide further clues of a strengthening market.

Looking to tomorrow, the Fed meeting probably won’t be much of a catalyst for movement considering they have laid out their intentions over and over.. and over in the last few weeks.  Further rate hikes are already priced in and no suprises are expected tomorrow.  Negative comments from Dell will most likely lead to a lower open, at least initially.. keep an eye on those resistance levels. 

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Once again, the Nasdaq had no trouble with resistance around 2100 but much stronger resistance at the 50 day moving average (where it closed today) as well as the downward trend line are on the horizon.

The S&P made a significant move today by clearing the first hurdle of resistance at 1200.  However, it also faces resistance of the 50 day moving average and possibly a downward trend line above that.

The move in the Dow today could almost be called distribution in that it closed in the lower half of the trading range.  It has been the weakest of the indices for some time and faces significant resistance at 10500 and then again at 10700, if it can clear that level.

Stocks

Top Breakouts (10.16.05 – 10.31.05)

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The number of breakouts picked up dramatically to close out October with 44 stocks clearing pivots in the period. However, the success rate was below average (average success rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 65%) with just over half (25) ending the period with a gain.

I’ve provided a screenshot of the first few top breakouts at the end of October.  As always, you may see a larger version of the screenshot of the database.

The biggest winner in the period was Wesco International (WCC), a large distributor of electrical parts, with a gain of 25% since breaking out on Oct. 17th.  It broke out to an all time high 3 days later with very heavy volume and is currently consolidating those gains.

While the number of stocks ending the period with a gain was less than average, no stock ended the period with a loss of 8% or more, which would indicated a failed breakout.  The 2 worst performing breakouts in the period belong to Oxford Industries (OXM), a clothing retailer and NDS Group (NNDS), a fast growing provider of solutions for the secure delivery of entertainment and info to television set top boxes and IP devices.  Each ended the period with a 5% loss, but both continue to look OK technically and remain above support of the 50 day moving average.

If you’d like to see the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracking database in action and get the full list of breakouts before they happen, you can try it out for free for 30 days with PayPal.  SelfInvestors.com free members may sign up by logging into there profile page or you may create a new account and sign up for the premium membership trial.

State of the Stock Market

Distribution @ Resistance

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It was a real battle at resistance levels today with the market swinging back and forth all day.  But eventually the bears won out as volume picked up on the sell side.  Today’s distribution at resistance sets up the possibility of retesting support levels of this most recent correction.  I happen to disagree with IBD’s assessment of a new rally confirmation last Wednesday.  Yes, technically there was confirmation, but its still too soon to declare a new rally.  While the market has firmed a bit, selling volume still dominates and major resistance looms.  Until a breakout occurs above keys resistance levels I’m taking a very cautious approach on the long side.

Today the Nasdaq hit the wall at the 50 day moving average.  Today’s move sets up more weakness in the short term with a possibility of retesting the lows of this correction around 2050.  The 200 day moving average is also an area to watch, but has been an insignificant source of support and resistance.

The S&P has been lagging the Nasdaq of late.  It looked as if it might break above resistance at 1200 today, but failed after lunch.  It’s a significant move and sets up further weakness in the coming days, with a possibility of retesting the area around 1175.  Look for a trend change if it does.  Light volume selling would indicate a market that is increasingly getting stronger and set up a move for a stronger run at resistance.

The Dow is the weakest of the indices and has much work to do if it hopes to make a run at Dow 11,000 by the end of the year, especially considering it couldn’t handle the first level of resistance at 10,400 today.  If it can clear 10,400 it will still face stiff resistance around 10500 and again at 10700, before tackling the the mother of all resistance – (insert drum beats and glowing lights here) -Dow 11,000.  Note that selling continues to dominate.

   

Company Earnings

Notable Earnings: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Ultra Petroleum (UPL) & NutriSystems (NTRI)

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It was busy after the bell today with several high quality companies reporting.  As usual I’ll list the companies in order of their fundamental rank.

[28/30]

  • Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA), the manager of portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables posted another very strong quarter after the bell today with earnings growing 32% and revenues growing 33% over the year ago quarter.  Both beat estimates.  Considering the outstanding results from this company for the last several years it’s surprising that the stock has remains stagnant.   It’s currently forming a long base on base pattern with resistance at 45.

  • Corporate Executive Board (EXBD), the research and analysis company for corporations, is another company that continues to post solid results quarter after quarter, year after year of around 25 – 30%.  No exception in today’s report as the company beat analyst estimates by a penny and reported earnings growth of 24% with revenue growth of 29%..  Executive also raised Q4 and ’05 guidance.  The stock is currently basing with strong support at 75..

[27/30]

  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Blow Out Earnings!, the surgical robot manufacturer (da Vinci), blew away estimates again this quarter just as they did last quarter and beat estimates by .26/share!  Revenues came in more than 20% higher than estimates.  Shares are soaring after hours more than 25%.  The stock had been basing after the big gap up following the last earnings report and will break to all time highs on a big gap up once again tomorrow morning.

  • Ultra Petroleum (UPL) Blow Out Earnings!, continues the streak of oil companies posting tremendous profit and revenue growth.  Seems like earnings growth of 100% is routine for the top oil companies these days.  Ultra smashed estimates of .32/share by posting .38/share, good for a 118% increase over the year ago quarter.  After running up 100% in just a couple months, the stock has been consolidating and is currently bouncing off the 50 day moving average.  It has held up remarkably well considering the big selling in oil recently.

[26/30]

  • NutriSystem (NTRI) Blow Out Earnings!, the manufacturer of weight loss products and services, is the fastest growing company in the SelfInvestors.com database. The company retains that label after posting another huge quarter after the bell today which beat estimates by .03/share.  NutriSystem swung to a big profit in the latest quarter after posting a small loss one year ago.  Revenues soared 743%.   The stock is down more than 5% after hours, but I would expect the stock to swing to a gain before the trading day ends tomorrow.  Just some knee jerk profit taking.

  • Akamai (AKAM), a provider of content delivery and application performance for ebusinesses, posted another outstanding quarter which matched estimates.  Earnings increased from the year ago period by 56% and revenues increased by 42% in the same time frame.  Akamai became profitable for the first time in ’04 and is emerging as a leading technology company.  It increased the number of customers with long term contracts by 45% from a year ago.. this from the CEO:  "Strong growth in our customer base reflects increasing trust in Akamai to accelerate the on-line delivery of mission critical content and Web-based applications by businesses and government agencies," Sagan said.   The stock is in the process of carving out a long 2 year base with overhead resistance just above 18.

  • HealthExtras (HLEX), a provider of pharmacy benefits management services, posted results after the bell which matched earnings estimates of .15/share.  That’s a rise of 46% over the year ago quarter.  However, revenue growth was a bit disappointing at 16%.. it’s the first time the company has posted growth of less than 20% in a couple years.  Looking to 2006, the company is raising guidance and expect revenues to exceed 1 billion.  The stock broke out of a flat base on Oct. 14th, but has been unable to hold those gains.  The stock bounced off the 50 day moving average today and remains in a buyable range.

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