Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Aquantive (AQNT), Keystone Automotive (KEYS)

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Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Aquantive (AQNT) Advertising, fundamental rank [26/30] up 20%, bouncing off support around 20 and looking to carve out right side of base; still faces resistance though
  • Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH) Business/Software & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] up 7%, attempting breakout move
  • Holly Corp (HOC) Oil/Gas Refining & Marketing, fundamental rank [26/30] up 4%, continues running to all time highs
  • Garmin (GRMN) Scientific & Technical Instruments, fundamental rank [26/30] up 2%, retreating from resistance of 50 day moving average; well off highs of this morning

DOWN

  • Keystone Automotive (KEYS) Auto Parts Wholesale, fundamental rank [23/30] down 12%, well off morning lows but still well below 200 day moving average
  • J2 Global Communications (JCOM) Internet Software & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] down 8%, turned away from 50 day moving average, will test 200 day in coming days
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers

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Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • CE Franklin (CFK) Industrial Equipment Wholesale, fundamental rank [25/30] up 5%, Trying to move up the right side of a new base but still faces resistance of 50 and 200 day moving averages

DOWN

  • Zevex International (ZVXI) Medical Appliances & Equipment, fundamental rank [22/30] down 22%, still has support of 200 day moving average
  • AM Castle & Company (CAS) Wholesale(other), fundamental rank [25/30] down 13%, base might be failing although still has support of 50 and 200 day moving averages
  • Expeditors (EXPD) Air Delivery & Freight Service, fundamental rank [25/30] down 11%, testing support of 200 day moving average
  • Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) Railroad, fundamental rank [25/30] down 11%, another railroad down the wrong track..taking out support of its 3.5 year trend line
State of the Stock Market

Dow Also Surges Above Downward Trend Line, But Market is Flashing Red Flags

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Last Tuesday, the S&P500 became the first major index to rise above resistance of its downward trend line.  On Friday, the Dow too, was able to follow in the S&P’s footsteps.  Time to jump into long positions right?  Not so fast.  There are some glaring red flags indicating that this market is still on shaky ground.  The big concern is volume (more on that in a minute), but there are also problems with the number of high quality successful breakouts.  Friday, I remember scanning my database as well as other info sources for high quality breakouts.. outside of PVTB, I wasn’t seeing much that interested me.    A run down of the charts revealed many moves were ocurring off oversold conditions and many of those moves lacked volume.  Clearly, high growth stocks have lost their luster of late.  Not what you want to see in a market rally.  With big pharma, cigarettes, select banks, utilities and some large cap names like AT&T (T) and Comcast (CMCSA) doing well, traders continue to put money into the more defensive areas.

The biggest concern is the lack of volume behind the latest market rallies, most notably last Tuesday and again on Friday as the Dow also broke through resistance of its downward  trend line.  I for one am becoming increasingly skeptical of this two week surge in the market.  With more resistance levels on the horizon, it pays to remain largely on the sidelines until we get a big price AND volume move.  That would signal that the big fellas have come to play the long side.. and a signal for you to follow their lead. 

Taking a look at the chart of the S&P 500 below, you see that the index made some key moves last week by clearing 3 resistance levels of the 50/200 day moving averages and the downward trend line.  It also remains above the 2 year trend line I’ve discussed in previous reports.  That’s the good news.  The bad news as I mentioned above is that lack of volume (in addition to looming resistance areas somewhere between 1280 -1290).  Looks like we’re going to see some selling very soon.  Pay attention to volume levels on the sell side.  Are institutions using the rally to dump shares?  That would show up in increasing sell volume levels in the coming days.

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Not surprising, the Dow looks very similar.  It too cleared several resistance areas last week but looks shaky up here (at least in the short term) with a lack of momentum behind the move as it faces another round of resistance. 

The Nasdaq has long a way to go before you could declare a new uptrend.  It has yet to clear any resistance levels and still remains submerged below that 2 year trend line I have discussed in past market reports.  It’s difficult to have a sustained market rally without the Naz involved.

Weekly/After Stock Market Review Archives

Weekly Market Review – Pricing In End to Rate Hikes, Now What?

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On the surface, we had a great week last week, with the major indices having their best week since ’04 and clearing several resistance levels in the process (at least in the Dow and S&P500 – have a look at the latest market report released just a few hours ago: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/dow_also_surges.html).  With Bernankes recent comments, lower GDP and jobs numbers and a cooling housing market, traders are pricing in an end to rate hikes.  The concern is that what are traders going to focus on once the end to rate hikes euphoria wears off?  There aren’t too many positives out there.  The Middle East situation will be closely watched and some think that the situation will be resolved quickly.  Quickly?  They’ve been fighting for 50 years.. it won’t end quickly.  Traders will soon get their wish of an end to rate hikes, but then we’ll need to see evidence of a soft landing in the housing market and in the economy in general all while keeping inflation in check.  It’s going to be a difficult tight rope to walk over the next several months.  No wonder traders are fleeing to defensive areas.

It was another ho hum week for the Model Portfolio as I continue to sit largely on the sidelines.  I was forced out of one short trade in TWGP for a 7% loss and initiated a new long trade with an oil play that is currently up 3%.  For the coming week I’ll be considering some short term short entries and may initiate another long if the "stars are aligned".

** Best/Worst Performers **

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Semiconductor – Memory             8.55%
2. Silver                                            8.15%
3. Copper                                         7.80%
4. Drugs – Generic                           6.70%
5. Drug Related Products                 6.60%
6. Auto Manufacturers                     6.45%
7. Industrial Equipment Wholesale    6.40%
8. Computer Based Systems            6.10%
9. Oil/Gas Drilling & Exploration         5.90%
10. Heavy Construction                    5.90%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Consumer Services                    -10.80%
2. Music & Video Stores                  -9.05%
3. Health Care Plans                         -8.70%
4. Lodging                                         -7.65%
5. Manufactured Housing                 -7.20%
6. Resorts & Casinos                       -6.25%
7. Air Delivery & Freight Service      -6.20%
8. Food Wholesale                            -5.80%
9. Office Supplies                             -4.65%
10. Trucking                                      -4.10%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. HLDRS Telecom (TTH)                      5.70%
2. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)  5.70%
3. HLDRS Oil Service (OIH)                   5.60%
4. HLDRS Semis (SMH)                         5.60%
5. Ishares Semis (IGW)                         5.50%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Ishares Transportation (IYT)             -3.15%
2. HLDRS Internet (HHH)                       -2.70%
3. PowerShares Retail (PMR)               -1.65%
4. HLDRS Retail (RTH)                            -.70%
5. India Fund (IFN)                                  -.65%

**  There are no IPO’s worth watching for the coming week **

** Upcoming Economic Reports (7/31/06- 8/4/06) **

Monday:        Chicago PMI
Tuesday:       ISM Manufacturing, Personal Income, Construction Spending, Retail Sales
Wednesday:  Petroleum Status, Mortgage Apps
Thursday:      Money Supply, Factory Orders, ISM Non Manufacturing, Monster Employment  
                       Index, Jobless Claims
Friday:           Employment Situation, Public Debt

** Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them!**

– SelfInvestors Blog –

1. Dow Surges Above Downward Trend Line, But Market Flashes Red Flags (July 30th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/dow_also_surges.html

2. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (FORM, RACK) (June 28th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable__3.html

3. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (AKAM, KNDL) (June 27th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable__2.html

4. Today’s Notable Earnings Movers (TRMB, CHH) (June 26th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable__2.html

5. S&P Clears Resistance, Dow Next? (June 25th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/sp_clears_resis.html

6. Today’s Notable Earnings Mover’s (HOLX, NTRI) (June 25th)
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/07/todays_notable_.html

Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – FormFactor (FORM), Rackable Systems (RACK)

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Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • FormFactor (FORM) Semiconductor – Broadline, fundamental rank [24/30] up 19%, continuing bounce off 200 day moving average after a failed breakout attempt
  • Phase Forward (PFWD) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 18%, beginning move of right side of base?
  • Digital River (DRIV) Internet Software & Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 9%, continuing push up right side of nice looking base
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Waste Management, fundamental rank [25/30] up 8%, carving out right side of base

DOWN

  • Rackable Systems (RACK) Diversified Computer Systems, fundamental rank [23/30] down 39%, adios RACK
  • Baker Hughes (BHI) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [25/30] down 5%, most likely headed to retest lows of correction
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Kendle International (KNDL)

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Here are today’s notable earnings movers… there are quite a few moving today

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so
  won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Internet Software & Services, fundamental rank [27/30] up 24%, nearing breakout from base; looks like it will have enough momentum to clear a new multi year high tomorrow
  • Core Laboratories (CLB) Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 12%, carving out right side of base (near a breakout to new all time high)
  • VCA Antech (WOOF) Personal Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 10%, breaking out to all time high
  • Harsco Corp (HSC) Conglomerates, fundamental rank [23/30] up 10%, back from the dead; clearing resistance of 50 and 200 day moving averages
  • Dr Reddy’s Labs (RDY) Drug Manufacturers, fundamental rank [22/30] up 9%, continuing to bounce off 200 day moving average and push through resistance of 50 dma; carving out right side of base
  • Questar Corp (STR) Gas Utilities, fundamental rank [25/30] up 7%, continuing to carve out right side of long base; near breakout to all time high
  • LKQ Corp (LKQX) Auto Parts Wholesale, fundamental rank [25/30] up 7%, carving out right side of base
  • ICT Group (ICTG) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 7%, trying to carve out right side of base but being turned away at resistance of 50dma today
  • Raymond James Financial (RJF) Investment Brokerage, fundamental rank [23/30] up 7%, nice bounce off 200 day moving average today; also clearing resistance of 50dma
  • America Movil (AMX) Wireless Communications, fundamental rank [25/30] up 5%, carving out right side of base
  • Commscope (CTV) Communication Equipment, fundamental rank [22/30] up 5%, touched new all time high briefly this morning before pulling back; probably forms handle from here

DOWN

  • Kendle International (KNDL) Drug Manufacturers, fundamental rank [25/30] down 22%, taking out support of both 50 and 200 day moving averages

  • Baidu.com (BIDU) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [26/30] down 19%, healthy looking base destroyed; likely headed to 200dma
  • Smith Micro Software (SMSI) Application Software, fundamental rank [25/30] down 12%, gaps down below 50 day moving average setting up long basing period
  • Penn National Gaming (PENN) Resorts & Casinos, fundamental rank [25/30] down 11%, well off the lows of the morning but still below support of 200 day moving average
  • Palomar Medical Tech (PMTI) Medical Appliances & Equipment, fundamental rank [27/30] down 10%, may be finding support at 200 day moving average
  • TheStreet.com (TSCM) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [28/30] down 10%, turned away at resistance of 50 day moving average; looks like decent short
  • Kirby Corp (KEX) Shipping, fundamental rank [24/30] down 6%, trying to hold at 200 day moving average
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Trimble Navigation (TRMB), Choice Hotels International (CHH)

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Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Hologic (HOLX), NutriSystem (NTRI)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note: * fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
         * earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so
           won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Trimble Navigation (TRMB) Scientific & Technical Instruments, fundamental rank [25/30] up 11%, carving out right side of nice looking base
  • Homex Development (HXM) Property Manage/Development, fundamental rank [26/30] up 7%, carving out right side of sharp V base
  • General Cable (BGC) Industrial Equipment, fundamental rank [24/30] up 7%, carving out right side of base

DOWN

  • Choice Hotels International (CHH) Lodging, fundamental rank [26/30] down 23%, currently testing 200 day moving average
  • Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [23/30] down 14%, significantly off morning lows after bouncing from support at 25, but still well below 200 day moving average
  • Carpenter Technology (CRS) Steel & Iron, fundamental rank [27/30] down 14%, on its way to testing 200 day moving average
  • Hydril (HYDL) Oil & Gas Equip/Services, fundamental rank [25/30] down 9%, turned away at resistance of 50 and 200 day moving averages; well off lows of morning though
  • Under Armour (UARM) Apparel Clothing, fundamental rank [25/30] down 5%, holding above 50 day moving average keeping late June breakout intact despite today’s heavy selling
State of the Stock Market

S&P Clears Resistance On Follow Through, Dow Next?

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After yesterday’s big move with surprisingly little volume, it appeared that the market would once again turn tail at important resistance.. and that was the case in early trading this morning following a run up in oil and some poor earnings results.  However, by the end of the day, with oil prices retreating, we were looking at a nice little confirmation move in the S&P above key levels.  Today, the S&P became the first major index to clear important resistance of the 200 day moving average AND the downward trend line with volume higher than the day before.  It’s not a blow out bullish move and much work is left in the Dow (which sits right at resistance of the downward trend line) and Nasdaq (not even close to first major resistance of downward trend line), but it’s another step in the right direction.  Keep an eye out for new leaders in emerging industries.  Certainly, those small banks can’t be ignored and oil stocks made a big move today as oil companies begin to report big profits once again this quarter.

Note the formation of the W shaped double bottom bases in the charts below.  I would have liked to see both the Dow and S&P under cutting the first leg down, which would increase the likelihood that we have put in a  bottom.  Also note that with today’s move, the S&P has a new support level at the downward trend line around 1260.  Let’s see if the Dow can follow the S&P lead tomorrow and clear that downward trend line.

Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Hologic (HOLX), NutriSystem (NTRI)

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Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note: * fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
         * earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so
           won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Hologic (HOLX) Medical Appliances & Equip, fundamental rank [26/30] up 10%, nearing breakout from base
  • Precision Castparts (PCP) Steel & Iron, fundamental rank [25/30] up 10%, carving out right side of base
  • Jacobs Engineering (JEC) Heavy Construction, fundamental rank [23/30] up 7%, looks to have found a bottom and preparing for next leg up
  • Anixter Intl (AXE) Electronics Wholesale, fundamental rank [25/30] up 5%, carving out right side of base
  • Smith International (SII) Oil & Gas Equip/Services, fundamental rank [246/30] up 5%, continuing bounce off 200DMA and looking for breakout from long channel
  • AT&T (T) Domestic Telecom, fundamental rank [23/30] up 4%, nice breakout from base

DOWN

  • NutriSystem (NTRI) Personal Products, fundamental rank [28/30] down 16%, likely headed for previous low of base and 200 day moving average
  • Forward Air  (FWRD) Trucking, fundamental rank [26/30] down 10%, breakout of early July continuing to fail
  • LCA Vision (LCAV) Medical Practitioners, fundamental rank [28/30] down 9%, continues to breakout down below 200 day moving average but strong support at 40

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