The highly touted, the much anticipated and overly hyped Visa IPO is set to debut tomorrow under the ticker symbol "V". It priced tonight above the expected range of $37 – 42 at $44/share. Not much of a surprise there. I get more emails regarding the Visa IPO then I have total in the 4 years of running this site. Everyone one wants to know when and how they can get a piece of this action, some that don’t have a broker and have never traded a stock in their life. Does that tell you about the demand in this thing? It’s overboard.
I prefer IPO’s that lurk behind the scenes and double while nobody is watching.. By the time the masses are interested you’re out with big gains. It’s how the game works. I don’t like the Visa IPO out of the gates tomorrow for this simple reason. Everyone talks about how well Mastercard (MA) did after it’s IPO, but nobody ever mentions that Mastercard (MA) had a fraction of the hype that Visa did and actually traded sideways for two months after its IPO before breaking out in late summer of 06 for a tremendous run.
Don’t get me wrong. I think over time Visa will produce outstanding returns, but jumping in out of the gates tomorrow for fear of "missing out" is a big mistake.
There are other "off the radar" IPO’s that will produce far greater returns than the Visa IPO over the 6 months and I’m willing to bet a steak dinner on it. Here’s the bet. Of the list of IPO’s below that are showing the greatest demand over the past 30 days, I’m willing to bet that the average return of 8 of those will outperform Visa over the next 6 months. It’s game on for the first person to take the bet in the comments section below.
This is a snapshot of the IPO Tracker here at SelfInvestors.com which shows IPO’s with highest DI score over the past 30 days. DI is a proprietary indicator I use to measure the demand in a stock using price and volume. It’s a database of only the highest rated IPO’s over the past 18 months or so in terms of fundamentals (earnings/sales growth, ROE, margins, management ownership, debt/equity).
I"m currently offering a no obligation 30 day free pass to the tracker for those that join the new IPO community, which you can join below the banner above if you’d like. I’m working hard to create the #1 private, moderated community exclusive to the best IPOs. For more on the IPO Tracker, you might like to have a look at a new video demo I put together a few nights ago. It’s what I like to call low fi production but hey it gets the job done. I’m thinking of adding cheesy music from 80’s movies in my next videos so enjoy the barebones version while it lasts.
AND with that I present to you the top 15 IPO’s showing positively, absolutely, earth shattering demand over the past 30 days. Most of these are off the radar and I can assure you nobody will ever email me asking how then can get in.. and that’s just the way I like it.
Now I choose my Great 8 (in equal parts) to beat the return of the Visa IPO.
OK scratch BLOG it was bought out by BMC. Next. Ok STV. Now we’re getting somewhere. I’m buying hand over fist between 17.50 and 20 with a stop out level below 15. Big move up after earnings last week and looks ready to go again. This is bottom dwellers land down here but the accumulations signals more down days then up over the next few months. I’ll put it in my list of 8 to outperform the Visa IPO over the next 6 months.
Another China display advertiser VISN, but this one is going up unlike FMCN. Risky but technically looks good. Broke out at the end of February and pulling back to that area with a bounce off the 50 day moving average. I’ll add it to the list of Great 8 to outperform the Visa IPO.
Insurance? Yuck. Don’t like insurance. Insurance stocks are for Buffet aficionados. .. but CISG is interesting. Might include it.
Gushan Environmental – Chinese, Biodiesel, Environment, Energy, IPO. What’s not to like? Ok, well maybe the earnings aren’t the greatest in recent quarters.. I can’t take them all. I’m already taking STV and VISN in my Great 8. GU Out.
I’ll make a long story short – taking all solar plays in my Great 8. LDK, TSL, SOL and FSLR. I’ll even throw Rubicon Technologies (RBCN), a play in the LED space to complete the "green" play picture and round out my Great 8 to beat the performance of the Visa IPO.
So here’s the bet one last time. The 8 IPO’s that I’ll take from this list (STV, VISN, CISG, LDK, TSL, SOL, FSLR, RBCN) will on average beat the performance of the Visa IPO over the next 6 months. You don’t think so? Chime in and let’s put a steak dinner on the line.
Disclaimer: I don’t yet own any of the positions mentioned above, but soon, very soon.
I agree that there is alot of hype surrounding the Visa IPO, but I don’t agree that STV, SOL, LDK, and your other picks will beat out Visa. I have already owned and lost money on STV, SOL, and LDK. A friend of mine did make money on LDK, but it has really gone down in price compared to a few months ago. STV has really plunged too. I remember when it came as an IPO in October. It shot up quickly the first few days and that was when the money could have been made. I do not like any Chinese stocks, because I have lost money on every single one that I have owned. I do agree with your advice to stay away from GU. I also owned that one and took a loss on it. I haven’t yet grabbed Visa because I am hoping it will come down to around $50. However, I feel Visa will do well. We’ll see in 6 months.
Are you throwing your hat into the steak dinner ring Mary? 🙂 Remember that most IPO’s take a beating during a market correction.. in fact most growth stocks do. When the market starts turning south you want to jump off of the IPO profit train. However, when the market begins to turn around IPO’s produce big time gains. Most of the IPO’s in that list are still growing rapidly and when they turn, they will turn big. I particularly like STV down here but it is a risk until it breaks the downtrend. The bottom line is that these stocks are unloved and forgotten about because many probably lost money on them fearful of getting back in. That’s the fear factor! .. which creates the setup for a new base and a new run.
Thanks for all of your advice regarding stocks and the 15 IPO’s that you think will beat out Visa. Now that I think about it more, you may be right if you are just setting the time to 6 months. However, I think in the long run, like 1 – 2 years, Visa will do much better than these Chinese IPO’s. China’s inflation rate has been so high and I heard it is affecting the economy negatively because the prices of food and household goods have gone up so much. I have only been in the stock market game since August, but I talk about it quite a bit with friends at work who have many years of experience. Most of them say to stay away from the Chinese stocks, and like I said in my previous posting, I have lost money on every single Chinese IPO so far. No more Chinese stocks for me. I changed my price for Visa to $60 now. I hope to grab it this next week. I also like the fact that Visa will pay a dividend. None of the Chinese IPO’s I had paid any kind of dividend.
Mary, I certainly would have stayed away from Chinese stocks towards the end of last year and haven’t touched any of them for months now. The correction was long overdue and anyone caught in it would have lost a fortune. After correcting 50% since mid October, I’m beginning to like some of the best China companies again. I’m not calling a bottom just yet because china is still in a downtrend but over the next 6 months I think they will outperform. Please be advised I’m not recommending these stocks.. all should be researched invidually.
RBCN giving me some problems and should have taken GU but still like the chances here. VISN looks great as do the solars.