All posts by Tate Dwinnell

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – LifeCell (LIFC)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers:
Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

It’s all down for today.

DOWN

  • LifeCell Corp (LIFC) Biotech, [27/30], down 11%, reversing sharply following yesterday’s breakout, but still maintaining support above 50 DMA
  • Allis-Chalmers Energy (ALY), Diversified Machinery, [24/30], down 10%, taking out support of 50DMA once again, but still has support around previous breakout point around 14.70 for now
  • Logility (LGTY), Application Software, [23/30], down 8%, breakout from short base with no handle failing.. not much of a surprise there.  However, still has support above 50DMA
  • GFI Group (GFIG), Investment Brokerage, [24/30], down 5%, holding up at support of 50 day moving average and in the process of carving out a base

The Big Squeeze: Something’s Gotta Give

Are you ready for the final days of frustration, ready for this bull/bear battle to resolve itself?

With the market getting squeezed between an intermediate upward trend line and upper resistance, I think it happens very soon.  When a bull and bear are backed into a corner with nothing between them but a 16oz. tenderloin, something has got to give right?. (OK my analogies need some work, but it may be better than the dead cat bounce)

Here’s another bold prediction…  I have no idea where this market is headed.  While I’m still moderately bullish considering major support levels are intact and we’re making higher highs and higher lows, the market has failed to follow through on rally attempts twice now in the last couple of weeks and selling volume is beginning to overshadow buy volume.

Lets take a look at the squeeze on the charts.

You can see in the Nasdaq we’re right on that upward trend line which continues to squeeze the Nasdaq up to resistance.  We’re running out of room creating the likelihood of a big move in either direction very soon.  My feeling is we sell off a bit tomorrow morning but continue to hold up at that trend line for at least a few more days.  But time is running out….
(apologies for the grainy charts, the screenshot was taken a bit too wide)

The "squeeze" is also evident in the S&P as we sit right on that upward trend line as well.  Strong support at 1275 (notice the 50 day moving average converges there as well, adding strength to the support).

While there isn’t a well defined area of resistance around the highs of the Dow like there is in the S&P and Nasdaq, there is a clearly defined upward trend line.  It was discouraging to see that the Dow wasn’t able to hold up at 11,000 today, but it still has some support at the 50 day moving average as well as that upward trend line.

ETF Portal Launched!

I’m very pleased to announce the rollout of ETF Central, a site I’ve been working on in bits and pieces over the last several months.  I never thought the darn thing would get done but now it’s complete!   

If your at all interested in supplementing your portfolio with exchange traded funds, I think this information and tracking portal will be of great benefit to you.  ETF Central provides links to recent news stories, recent blog entries from top ETF blogs such as ETFinvestor.com and ETFTrends.com, links to books and resources as well as my own chart analysis and some built in screens for tracking top ETF’s. 

There is lots of information there, so have a look around and let me know what you think!

Today’s Earnings Movers – Men’s Wearhouse (MW), Chicos Fas (CHS)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers:
Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Men’s Wearhouse (MW) Apparel Stores, fundamental rank [25/30] up 11%, carving out right side of long base
  • Aldila (ALDA) Sporting Goods, fundamental rank [26/30] up 5%, maker of golf club shafts continuing to make new all time highs after breaking out on Feb 21st
  • Tenaris Steel (TS) Steel & Iron, fundamental rank [27/30] up 4%, a stock mentioned here back in December before breaking out, up about 30% since and hitting another all time high today
  • Bancolombia (CIB) Banks – Foreign Regional, fundamental rank [25/30] up 4%, continuing its steady trend higher and showing no signs of slowing down

DOWN

  • Chico’s Fas (CHS) Apparel Stores, [28/30], down 12%, breakout failure, headed to next support around 40
  • Central European Distribution (CEDC), Wineries & Distilleries, [26/30], down 6%, holding up at support of 50 day moving average and in the process of carving out a base

Today’s Earnings Movers

Here are today’s notable earnings movers:
Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Joy Global (JOYG) Industrial Metals & Minerals, fundamental rank [28/30] up 11%, this one just keeps on chugging
  • Cal Dive International (CDIS) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [27/30] up 8%, latest results furhter confirmation that Cal Dive is a leader in the oil industry – currently carving out a new base
  • Southwestern Energy (SWC) Gas Utilities, fundamental rank [26/30] up 7%, carving out new base and continuing to hold up at 200DMA

DOWN

  • Housevalues.com (SOLD) Internet Software & Services, [26/30], down 27%, the breakout failed long ago in this one.. just more pain today and further confirmation of a slowing housing market
  • Fargo Electronics (FRGO), Business Software & Services, [23/30], down 11%, takes out support of 200DMA, but strong support at 16 where its bounced from today
  • Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Apparel Clothing, [24/30], down 7%, has long been an underperforming retailer.. another reason to stay away from the laggards and stick with the leaders like ZUMZ, CTRN and TRLG
  • Perficient (PRFT), Business Software & Services, [24/30], down 5%, holding above 50DMA and remains strong technically.. and fundamentally.

Breakout Highlights: 2.14 – 2.28.06

The last couple of weeks certainly hasn’t seen a flurry of breakouts with a total of 27 breakouts out of the nearly 800 stocks that I track.  A more typical 2 week period might see somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 – 50 breakouts.  However, the success rate was very good with 19 breakouts ending the period with a gain and none hitting an 8% loss.

As usual, here’s a screenshot of the top breakouts over the past couple of weeks with a link to a larger version (so you can actually read it – imagine that)

The biggest breakout of the period belongs to Kendle International (KNDL) with a 20% gain from the breakout point.  Kendle is a highly ranked provider of clinical research and drug development services to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries.

The big loser.. well, there really weren’t any.  Two ended the period with a 2% loss (ASF and WEBX) and 2 ended the period with just a 1% loss (RL and VTIV). 

With oils and commodities no longer leading the market, new industries appear to be emerging to take the lead.  Medicals continue to do well, especially in the biotech arena.  Pay attention to this area.  I’ve never been a big fan of buying bank stocks but they have been showing signs of life and I’ve been noticing a pickup in breakouts in this sector.  The problem is most of them are highly illiquid.  If you don’t mind trading bank stocks that trade less than 50K shares a day, you may be able to find quite a few opportunities.  There is one bank stock that I like, which I’ve highlighted in the past – Wilshire Bank (WIBC).  Wilshire is the highest rated bank stock that I track and it broke out this week from a nice flat base with very heavy volume.

In the medical space, two highly rated companies broke out to new highs in the last couple weeks – Kendle (KNDL), which I mentioned above and A.D.A.M (ADAM), a company engaged in the creation and delivery of interactive health information marketed to health and educational organizations.

As you can see in the chart below, I’m calling the first breakout point above 26.44 as the stock cleared what could be called the middle peak of a funky looking double bottom base.  No it’s not perfect.  The second opportunity occurred after the stock cleared a new all time high above 29.50.  I probably would have avoided purchasing here given the quick rise.  I’d be more confortable initiating a position on an orderly pull back to around the all time highs (29 – 30) with declining volume.  It may be on its way to do that now, possible setting up another opportunity.

ADAM is a stock I’ve been watching for some time and have continued to be impressed with the technical action.  It rarely gets better than this.  Fairly tight price action, outstanding up vs down volume.. clearly there continues to be great demand for the stock.  The move up on Friday occurred with disappointing volume but other than that it still looks very good.  The selling of the past 2 days has not been particularly intense.  I would not be surprised to see the stock return to the breakout point at around 10 in the coming days, possibly setting up an opportunity for those who may have missed the initial move.  Just keep in mind that earnings are coming up on March 14th which will undoubtedly create some increased volatility.

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To wrap up this post I wanted to provide a link to the top breakouts of the first couple weeks in February.. it was a post I was in the process of writing before I developed the bursitus in the arm and never got a chance to finish it up.  Hope you find some opportunities in this list as well

Today’s Earnings Movers

Here are today’s notable earnings movers:
Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Netease.com (NTES) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [27/30] up 12%, adding gains to the breakout of a couple days ago
  • Quanex (NX) Steel & Iron, fundamental rank [25/30] up 9%, carving out the right side of an ugly base
  • Roper Industries (ROP) Diversified Machinery, fundamental rank [25/30] up 8%, making breakout move to all time highs after 7 month consolidation

DOWN

  • McGrath Rentcorp (MGRC) Rental & Leasing Services, [24/30], down 14%, reclaiming 200DMA after sharp sell off this morning
  • Interline Brands (IBI), Building Materials Wholesale, [24/30], down 5%, taking out support of 50DMA

Water World

This post provided via Gary Scott, who sent the following to his newsletter readers a few days ago. 

International investments in water makes great business sense. The product is something everyone needs — in fact, after a few days you die if you don’t have it. Its uses are nearly unlimited: industrial, recreational, culinary, medicinal. There’s a limited supply, and an unceasing demand.

This is why we have been looking at international investments and water on this site for over five years.

Big trends in water are treating, purifying and providing it. About 85 percent of drinking water, and an even larger percentage of waste water services are provided by municipal-owned systems. Under the 1996 Safe Drinking Water Act many of these municipalities have to renovate their often antiquated systems. Many cities don’t have the money or the access to capital, so they outsource to profit-making companies.   

This is why last November we looked at Insituform Technologies, a leader in trenchless water line replacement. (See http://www.spottingtrends.com/investment/investment_natural_resources_9.htm).

Insituform’s share price has risen from $19.20 to $25.30 in this last three months since we wrote about it.

Today’s focus is in Europe which has had water problems even longer than in the US and has many companies that provide water services globally.  It should come as no surprise that Europe have some of the largest water companies.

France is home to some of these large water companies. One of these firms is Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux, formed through a 1997 merger between Compagnie de Suez (the company that built the Suez Canal and then became a bank) and Lyonnaise des Eaux (a water company with operations in the United States, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Spain and more). After the merger, the company’s name became Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux and was subsequently shortened to Suez in 2001.

Suez, trades on the Paris Bourse under the ticker symbol LY and several years ago adopted American business management methods, sharpening its focus and aiming to benefit shareholders, not just employees and managers.

In the summer of 2002, Suez merged its water and wastewater services into a division called Suez Environment.
Its water and wastewater business , is the second largest in the world. Suez provides water-related services to more than 115 million people worldwide. Its other business areas are electricity, natural gas, water and waste management. Suez also maintains interests in television and broadband distribution. In 2001, Suez was ranked 99th on Fortune’s Global 500, and in the same year it was ranked 19th in the world among companies with the greatest international presence, according to the United Nations World Investment Report.

Suez Environment supplies sustainable solutions for essential environmental services (water, sanitation and waste services) to industrial and individual customers around the world.

Their water services include:

   * Design, construction and startup of water treatment plants (drinking water, desalination, wastewater, and sludge treatment).
   * Production, treatment and distribution of drinking water.
   * Sewage treatment and sludge recovery.
   * Rainwater collection and treatment.
   * Optimization and complete management of the industrial water cycle.

Their waste services include:

   * Collection of domestic waste, non-hazardous and hazardous industrial waste.
   * Sorting, recycling and biological recovery.
   * Incineration with waste-to-energy recovery.
   * Landfill disposal of household and industrial waste.
   * Urban and industrial cleansing.
   * On-site and polluted-soil treatment.

SUEZ Environment did EUR 532 million in 2005 and recorded a +5.1% organic growth rate vs. +1.6% in 2004. This growth was driven by water in Europe (EUR 162 million, +5.1%) and international activities (EUR 169 million). Waste services in Europe (EUR 83 million, +1.8%). The firm recorded increases of 3% in France and 3.6% in the UK, while activity in Germany grew during the 2nd half.

Suez shares are also traded in Frankfurt, Brussles, Zurich and Suez ADRs trade on the New York Stock Exchange with the code SZE. The ADRS have traded between $26 and $37 in the last year and are in the $35 range now.

Suez is a natural resource blue chip of the world.

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A followup message a few days later takes a look at an investment trust focusing on the water industry:

Our messages have been looking at the potential of water investments for over five years. Our belief is that water is an investment commodity and its value will grow.

In the U.S. alone, water demand has tripled in the past 30 years, while the population growth has been just 50%.

The 2003 Needs Assessment indicates that community water systems and not-for profit non-community water systems need $276.8 billion over the next 20 years to install, upgrade and replace infrastructure.

There are many influences that should drive growth in U.S. water companies.

First, census figures show that the American population is growing strongly.  This increases the need for new or improved water infrastructure.

Second, there is a trend toward privatization and outsourcing of government water operations.

Third, the water industry is becoming increasingly sophisticated.

Fourth increased regulations regarding water creates opportunity in both the U.S. and abroad.

There is also growing consolidation in the water industry.

Water may be the most undervalued commodity in the market.

Plus this is a recession resistant, predictable and profitable industry. Yet which water companies should we choose?

Many investors prefer to leave the specific decisions to professionals. There are mutual funds and investment trusts that invest in water, such as the Global Water Equities Portfolio.

This is an investment trust focused on investing in the utility sector along with some foreign and small-capitalization companies, all doing business somehow related to water.

The trust is managed by Boenning & Scattergood, the oldest independent investment firm in the Philadelphia region.  This firm has been in business for over 90 years and has developed a particular expertise and knowledge of the water industry, including water utilities, filtration, equipment, chemical and engineering companies.

Boenning & Scattergood select the securities and provide ongoing support relating to the U.S. Water Equities Portfolio, looks for businesses that intend to operate in a socially and environmentally correct way. They search for those that earn primary revenues and growth from some aspect of the domestic potable water industry, including: water supply, pumps and pipes, machinery and equipment, filtration and purification, compliance and testing, utilities, metering and distribution, construction and engineering, wastewater treatment and recycling.

Recent portfolio holdings include:

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY    3.00% of Portfolio
POOL SCP Pool Corporation

H E A LT H C A R E 1                 .9 5 %
Millipore Corporation

I N D U S T R I A L S               66.0 3 %
3M Company
A.O. Smith Corporation
Danaher Corporation
ESCO Technologies Incorporated
Flowserve Corporation
Franklin Electric Company Incorporated
General Electric Company
IDEX Corporation
ITT Industries Incorporated
Lamson & Sessions Company
Layne Christensen Company
Lindsay Manufacturing Company
Mueller Industries Incorporated
Pall Corporation
Pentair Incorporated
Pico Holdings Incorporated
Roper Industries Incorporated
URS Corporation
Watts Water Technologies Incorporated

MAT E R IAL S                             9.97%
Arch Chemicals Incorporated
Calgon Carbon Corporation
NLC Nalco Holding Company

U T I L I T I E S                         1 9.0 5 %
American States Water Company
Aqua America Incorporated
California Water Service Group
Middlesex Water Company
SJW Corporation
Southwest Water Company

This trust is offered by Claymore Securities, Inc. www.claymore.com

The code for this trust is CGWEAX.

Investors who want a broad spectrum of water investments should investigate trusts such as this.

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Gary is a guest author here at the SelfInvestors blog and provides a look into investing trends, specifically in world markets.  If you’d like to sign up for his daily newsletter or one of several seminars throughout the year in Ecuador and North Carolina, you can get all the info at his personal site.

Today’s Earnings Movers

Here are today’s notable earnings movers:
Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Ctrip.com (CTRP) Resorts & Casinos, fundamental rank [27/30] up 14%, breaking out of base to new all time high; could be a record volume day
  • Eclypsis Corp (ECLP) Healthcare Info Service, fundamental rank [22/30] up 10%, continuing the bounce off the 50DMA
  • Mobile Mini (MINI) Metal Fabrication, fundamental rank [24/30] up 5%, continuing to march higher after breaking out from small base
  • Globalsantafe (GSF) Oil & Gas Drilling & Exp, fundamental rank [22/30] up 5%, reclaiming the 50DMA

DOWN

  • Amedisys (AMED), Home Health Care, [26/30], down 23%, moving average support lines taken out, next stop 28
  • Natco Group (NTG), Oil/Gas Equip & Services, [24/30], down 4%, January breakout continuing the falter