All posts by Tate Dwinnell

Today’s Earnings Movers: Grant Prideco (GRP) & Motorola (MOT)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers – there are several highly rated companies moving on earnings today

Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Grant Prideco (GRP) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] up 9%, so much for carving out a base.. breaking out from base with no handle formation
  • BlackRock (BLK) Investment Brokerage, fundamental rank [27/30] up 7%, big breakout from decent base today
  • Lufkin Industries (LUFK) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 5%, breaking out from base with no handle; some resistane at 70
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) Biotech, fundamental rank [28/30] up 4%, uptrend no longer in danger, reclaims support of 50 day moving average
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) Industrial Metals & Minerals, fundamental rank [26/30] up 4%, adding to yesterday’s strong breakout move

DOWN

  • Motorola (MOT) Communication Equipment, [26/30], down 7%, carving out right side of base; still has support of 50 day moving average
  • Seagate Technologies (STX) Data Storage Devices, [24/30], down 6%, base failing following today’s move
  • Wipro (WIT) Business Software & Services, [27/30], down 5%, breakout from base on hold for now; still has support of 50 day moving average; look for end of day bounce from here

Today’s Earnings Movers: Grant Prideco (GRP) & Motorola (MOT)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers – there are several highly rated companies moving on earnings today

Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Grant Prideco (GRP) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] up 9%, so much for carving out a base.. breaking out from base with no handle formation
  • BlackRock (BLK) Investment Brokerage, fundamental rank [27/30] up 7%, big breakout from decent base today
  • Lufkin Industries (LUFK) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 5%, breaking out from base with no handle; some resistane at 70
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) Biotech, fundamental rank [28/30] up 4%, uptrend no longer in danger, reclaims support of 50 day moving average
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) Industrial Metals & Minerals, fundamental rank [26/30] up 4%, adding to yesterday’s strong breakout move

DOWN

  • Motorola (MOT) Communication Equipment, [26/30], down 7%, carving out right side of base; still has support of 50 day moving average
  • Seagate Technologies (STX) Data Storage Devices, [24/30], down 6%, base failing following today’s move
  • Wipro (WIT) Business Software & Services, [27/30], down 5%, breakout from base on hold for now; still has support of 50 day moving average; look for end of day bounce from here

Today’s Earnings Movers: Grant Prideco (GRP) & Motorola (MOT)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers – there are several highly rated companies moving on earnings today

Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Grant Prideco (GRP) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] up 9%, so much for carving out a base.. breaking out from base with no handle formation
  • BlackRock (BLK) Investment Brokerage, fundamental rank [27/30] up 7%, big breakout from decent base today
  • Lufkin Industries (LUFK) Oil/Gas Equip & Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 5%, breaking out from base with no handle; some resistane at 70
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) Biotech, fundamental rank [28/30] up 4%, uptrend no longer in danger, reclaims support of 50 day moving average
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) Industrial Metals & Minerals, fundamental rank [26/30] up 4%, adding to yesterday’s strong breakout move

DOWN

  • Motorola (MOT) Communication Equipment, [26/30], down 7%, carving out right side of base; still has support of 50 day moving average
  • Seagate Technologies (STX) Data Storage Devices, [24/30], down 6%, base failing following today’s move
  • Wipro (WIT) Business Software & Services, [27/30], down 5%, breakout from base on hold for now; still has support of 50 day moving average; look for end of day bounce from here

Today’s Earnings Movers: Pharmaceutical Products Development (PPDI), United Health Care (UNH)

It seemed that it was just yesterday we were in full earnings reporting mode.. how time flies.  So, for the next several weeks I’ll once again be highlighting stocks moving on earnings each morning.

Here are today’s notable earnings movers:
Note: fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results

UP

  • Pharmaceutical Products Development (PPDI) Medical Laboratories & Research, fundamental rank [25/30] up 16%, so much for carving out a base.. today’s strong earnings report is sending the stock up past resistance and to a new all time high
  • East West Bancorp (EWC) Banks – Pacific, fundamental rank [26/30] up 8%, carving out the right side of a large base
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) Industrial Metals & Minerals, fundamental rank [26/30] up 7%, a strong breakout to another all time high this morning
  • Freeport Mcmoran (FCX) Copper, fundamental rank [23/30] up 6%, breaking out to new new all time highs from so so base.
  • HDFC Bank (HDB) Banks – Foreign Regional, fundamental rank [26/30] up 3%, also breaking out from base to new all time highs; some resistance at 60

DOWN

  • United Health Care (UNH) Health Care Plans, [25/30], down 3%, UNH just continues to get hammered; strong support at 50 though

Google of the Offline World?Focus Media Holdings (FMCN)

In the past few months I’ve felt that the blog has become a bit dry, so I’ve been thinking of ways I could create some more interesting posts.  I’ll  continue to provide a look at the overall market and provide watchlists of top stocks that have recently broken out, but I’d like to also take a closer look at individual stocks and how I’d trade them on a day to day basis.  From buy to sell and everything in between.  The first stock I’d like to take a look at is Focus Media Holdings (FMCN), currently the highest rated stock in my database.

Founded in 2003, Focus Media is the leading out of home audiovisual media network in China, reaching high income individuals in over 20,000 commercial buildings (airports, shopping malls, golf country clubs, retail stores) in 44 major cities.  On Jan 9th , 06 Focus media acquired its largest competitor which makes them the dominant player in China’s office building advertising industry and has allowed them to raise advertising rates.  The buying didn’t stop there.  The company is moving into the mobile phone advertising industry in a big way with the acquisition of Dotad Media Holdings last month.  Dotad is  a leading mobile-phone advertising service provider in China that owns the largest WAP advertisement delivery platform through China Mobile and China Unicom and controls nearly 80% of this market.

Phillip Lin of the China Stock blog provides some thoughts on the Dotad acquisition.
http://chinastockblog.com/article/7491

This is a company expanding rapidly.  In the March ’04 quarter, FMCN posted sales of just 3.1 million.  A year later they more than tripled sales to 9.6 million and are on pace to triple sales again in the ’04 to ’05 period.  Earnings growth has been equally impressive by nearly tripling in the same time periods.

There are some valid concerns over government regulation and competition which readers of the China Stock Blog recently expressed in a post several days ago.
http://chinastockblog.com/article/8184

Since I’m a shorter term trader that relies (for the most part) on the action of the chart, I personally don’t concern myself much with how the company might be regulated or how the competition could steal market share a year or two from now.  While, a regulatory announcement could certainly hit the stock overnight, the likelihood of that anytime soon is remote.  What is of importance to me right now is that the company continues to post impressive growth and the chart continues to look outstanding.  Currently, I have FMCN as the highest rated stock in the world and it’s why I have a long position in it.   Let’s take a look at the chart.

After triping in price in less than a year following the IPO in summer of ’05, FMCN has traded fairly quietly in a channel to start of ’06 and recently broke out of that channel for the first time on March 31st with decent volume.  It stalled a bit at 60, but it didn’t take long for the stock to clear that source of minor psychological resistance.  Note this is where I initiated an entry in the stock.  Since that breakout the stock has formed a mini triangle pattern (always a bullish pattern), setting up the move for another surge higher.  As I write this post, the stock is breaking out from this mini consolidation this morning.  While the market is on shaky ground here, I’ll continue to hold the position as long as this pattern holds.

The Tipping Point.. Again

It was just a couple of weeks ago that the the major indices broke to new multi year highs and were at least in position for a sizable, sustained move up from there.  After today’s move, that optimism has faded as the market again finds itself up against a wall.  Just a wall of worry?  A temporary pitstop before breaking to new multi year highs once again? Perhaps.  But with key support levels being threatened, now is not the time to be making large bets in either direction.  Leadership in commodities which are at sitting at lofty levels?  I’d much rather see strength in tech and medicals, which have been anything but strong.  Tomorrow will be an important day.  Let’s take a look at the charts.

The Nasdaq is the strongest of the major indices and still hovers above significant support where the upward trend line and the 50 day moving average converge around 2300, but the emerging weakness in telecom and networking (see my post at ETF Central) is a concern.

The Dow sits right at key support where the upward trend and 50 day moving average converge.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market continue with downward momentum at the open tomorrow, but its how it closes that’s important.  Another high volume move below this key support level tomorrow would be significant and signal further selling in the coming weeks.

The weakes of the major indices is the S&P, which will have to muster some significant strength in a hurry to avoid a meltdown.  You can see that it has already taken out support of the upward trend line and is barely hanging on to support of the 50 day moving average as sell volume picked up significantly today.  There is minor support at 1275, but another high volume move down tomorrow would most likely signal a move to 1250 in the coming weeks.

Hot Stocks

The following table is a screenshot of a portion of the SelfInvestors.com "Hot Stocks" screen. SelfInvestors Hot Stocks are stocks showing big demand and within a buyable range (5% from breakout), near a breakout or within 5% of the 50 day moving average.

Want access to this screen and many others everyday?  Try out the SelfInvestors.com premium membership today at no risk!

(see the larger image here)

Here’s a rundown of the charts….. its important to remember that just because a stock is technically in a "buyable range", doesn’t mean that it’s an automatic buy.  Always consult the chart before making a buy or sell decision. You want to give yourself the best chance of success.  If a stock doesn’t provide you with a great entry point, move on to the next one.  There are too many opportunities to accept anything less than a great entry point.

ICON is showing great demand in its chart which is characterized by high volume buying and low volume selling.  Additionally, price action is tight throughout which is always a positive.  Wide, loose price action indicates too many are watching the stock or too much manipulation.  I tend to avoid these kinds of stocks.  ICON broke out of a much larger base late last year and recently broke out from a much shorter base recently as buy volume continues to surge higher.  Due to the shortness of the base and the fact it didn’t form a handle I would not have touched this one after it moved to a new all time high.  Instead, I want to see it consolidate quietly back to the point of the breakout around 14.50 or so.

SHFL is a very good example of a stock within a buy range, but not a great buy right at this moment.  The stock has run up more than 50% in just a couple weeks and needs time to digest those gains.  Why not be patient and see if a better buy point is offered?  Maybe it will return to the breakout point around 34.

VIVO recently broke out from a short base around 26 and has been bouncing around between that breakout point and the all time high around 28.  There are a couple of ways that I would play this thing.. one way is to buy as close to the pivot as possible around 26.  Another option is to wait patiently and see if the stock forms another handle around the highs .. look for a strong breakout above all time highs at 28 as an opportunity.

While SCSS has had a tremendous run over the past several months, the technical action remains very bullish.  The stock recently broke out from a flat base and has been treading quietly since.  Again, I’d play this a couple ways if the original breakout was missed.  I could wait for a pull back to the breakout point (assume it’s an orderly pull back) to around 38 or wait for a break out from the current consolidation above 40 (although I wouldn’t be initiating large position up at these levels).

SWSI looks like a real promising oil play.  Again, I don’t like initiating positions in stocks that break out without first forming some kind of handle as is the case here.  I’m looking for a quiet return to around 30 as an opportunity to possibly initiate a position.

Same situation here as with SWSI.. break out without handle.  I’m wating for a return to the break out point around 42.50.

Another break out without a handle here too with a nice high volume gap up (very bullish action).  Again, I would look to play this two ways, depeding on what the stock gave me.  One way is too pick up shares on a return to the breakout point around 41 or you could pick up a small position on a break out from current consolidation.  I don’t think this drops to 41 but continues to consolidate in a bullish pennant like formation and breaks out from there.   Certainly one to keep an eye on.

Nothing too fancy here.. just looking for a high volume move above the handle.

STRL has carved out a base that is a bit on the sloppy side in the left side but the action has been impressive recently with buy volume picking up.  It’s currently carving out a handle formation.  Should the stock blow through 25 with volume, it may offer a nice opportunity.

RIMM, the former high flyer held down by legal troubles is beginning to emerge again and is well positioned for a strong breakout. 

I’m not a big fan of the insurance stocks, but TWGP is one of the best and recently made another all time high.  Having never formed a significant handle during its runup over the past month, it is now digesting those gains in a quiet, constructive manner.

When I drew up this chart last night I though the stock would settle in aroun 20 before moving higher, but today the stock is getting hit a bit hard and appears headed for the next level of support around the 50 day moving average (18.50 – 19).  The action in this stock is a bit sloppier than I prefer, but CLRK is an outstanding company in an emerging field (LED lighting).. one to keep an eye on.

VOIP & Wireless Broadband – It’s a Small World After All

The following post is provided via the Gary Scott newsletter.  Gary lives and conducts business in a small town in Ecuador for a portion of the year, providing great insight into the ways technology is providing opportunities that were once impossible.  It truly is becoming a much small(er) world after all..

Technology Trends

We are traveling with a full house this week on our Import-Export Expedition. Yet wherever we go one great thing is that we are never far from home because of two evolving technologies.

With our tiny 12 inch by 12 inch, three pound plus laptops Merri and I can call my Mom, our kids, our friends or almost anyone, almost anywhere in the world, almost for nothing.

This is a trend that is transforming the utility of many people and places. This shift will create fortunes

We are visiting markets where one can buy organic Andean and Amazonian spices at low prices to pack and resell at high markups as part of our Import Export expedition right now.  We hope you will join us for our next expedition April 23-30.  Learn ways to have your own international business. See http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/expedition.html

We have turned an out-of-the way Blue Ridge Farm and a tiny Andean village into international business centers with this technology. Land that used to be worth a little is now worth a lot.  You too can cash in, if you figure out these dynamics before everyone else does.

VOIP (Voice Over Internet Protocol) and Wireless Broadband are changing the world. This knowledge is worth a fortune for more reasons than just the saved telephone tolls.

A few years ago I spoke at a seminar along with Ian Pierson the head futurist for British Telcom. One of the points he made was that he had advised BT (the largest phone company in the world) that within ten years they would not be able to charge for phone calls.

I wondered how this would take place. Now five years later, with VOIP, this is almost the case. Merri and I do not have a long distance carrier anywhere. We place all our calls through VOIP.

VOIP is a big part of the transformation, but wireless broadband is what really opens up this field.

We were lucky at our Blue Ridge farm because the telephone company decided to introduce DSL (telephone line broadband). This is because of the USDA (US Department of Agriculture) Rural Development Telecommunications Programs and Rural Development Broadband Loan and Loan Guarantee Program.

But most of the rural world does not have this type of politics at work. This is where there could be an even greater innovation, Wireless Internet Broadband (WIB).  WIB means that VOIP can be introduced quickly all over the world.

It is the combination of both technologies that give this evolution a one-two punch. WIB is the one of the two!

WIB is the best way to get broadband connectivity in rural and semi rural areas all over the world.

WIB is just like other internet plans, giving incredibly fast speeds and ‘always on’ features equal to cable or ADSL broadband technologies. However, the similarities stop there.

WIB customers connect to the internet wirelessly over the air, rather than through a phone line or cable. This means they get the benefits of broadband internet, plus freedom that only wireless internet can offer.

Years would have passed before wired broadband would have reached out tiny village of Cotacachi. Yet we have it now because all we have is a line-of-site radio tower.   

WIB is an ideal way for people who haven’t been able to get broadband otherwise. This is not satellite communication, but operates through tower transmitters just like cell phones. You get a very small dish pointed at a tower which may be miles away and viola! you have high speed always on internet.

This is great. I can communicate with you, my readers, all over the world through this amazing communications system. This is good enough but here is the #2 punch.

With VOIP my computer also becomes a phone. In North Carolina we use Vonage which provides a small computer box that connects to our computer and the phone.

In Ecuador we use SKYPE.  My computer and a headset is the phone.  We, in each case were allowed to choose a phone number anywhere in the world. We chose a Lakeland, Florida number so our daughter could call us with a local call.  But though she (or whoever) dials a Florida number, the phone (actually the computer) rings here in Ecuador (or wherever we happen to be) as long as we are connected to the internet.

Our calls out are extremely inexpensive. If we are calling someone who is also signed onto Skype, the call is FREE! Otherwise calling the US from Ecuador for example is about 2 cents a minute.

These two innovations change everything but I am not suggesting that you invest in VOIP or WIB businesses.

The big potential is from spotting how these two innovations change people, places and businesses. Look for distortions (as we have here) that are created by the change. For example, land here is cheap because it is viewed as remote.  Yet these technologies have erased the concepts of time and space! I can set up a business here with very low labor and real estate cost, but can serve clients in high cost areas! 

Here is another tip.  There will be two steps that take place in this evolution.  First, we will move from using computers to using interactive TV and the phone.

Too many people are afraid of computers because they are too user unfriendly. But everyone knows how to use the TV and the phone.

Second, we will shift from the typed word to voice. Not everyone can type but most of us can talk. These voice and gesture activated devices will be powerful in assessing your needs, sorting out data available and giving you a short list of useable information. You will no longer go to the net and ask a general question which may result in thousands of possible answers. You’ll be able to ask specific, personal questions and get personal, specific answers.

Look for ways that VOIP and WIB will change things and look for businesses that cash in on these easier to use interfaces.

These are trends that can make you rich.

It’s Been Confirmed – Nasdaq Breakout

It’s official, the Nasdaq has joined the breakout party enjoyed by both the Dow and the S&P over the past couple weeks…and it did so in impressive fashion as volume rose considerably higher than the day before.  If there was one area of concern, it was the lack of volume behind the advancing stocks in the SelfInvestors Leading Stock Index (the stats can be seen on the right there).  However, this is a big step towards a sustained breakout in the market… now lets see if the old resistance can be a new found source of support (another bullish indicator).  A few more moves like we had today and maybe the real estate speculators will continue to move money into the market!