All posts by Tate Dwinnell

Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earning’s Movers – Inventiv Health (VTIV); 51Jobs (JOBS)

Leave a comment

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Inventiv Health (VTIV) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 12%, today’s move sets up beginning of right side of new base
  • Blackbaud (BLKB) Business Software & Services, fundamental rank [27/30] up 11%, back above 50 day moving average; will probably spend a few more weeks carving out a base
  • Gigamedia (GIGM) Internet Service Providers, fundamental rank [20/30] up 5%, carving out right side of nice looking base
  • AMN Healthcare (AHS) Staffing & Outsourcing Services, fundamental rank [23/30] up 5%, continuing bounce off recent test of support; early July breakout remains intact

DOWN

  • 51job Inc (JOBS) Staffing & Outsourcing Services, fundamental rank [23/30] down 24%, holding at 50 day moving average; any hopes of carving out a great great looking base now gone
  • NDS Group (NNDS) Diversified Electronics, fundamental rank [23/30] down 10%, taking out support of 200 day moving average; any hopes of carving out new base any time soon gone
  • Universal Compression Holdings (UCO) Oil/Gas Equipment & Services, fundamental rank [23/30] down 4%, holding at 50 day moving average; late June breakout remains intact
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Guess (GES), Starbux (SBUX)

Leave a comment

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Guess (GES) Apparrel Clothing, fundamental rank [27/30] up 10%, breaking out from long base today to new all time high
  • DJO Inc (DJO) Medical Appliances & Equipment, fundamental rank [24/30] up 6%, broke out to new all time high today but is well off those highs; probably spends a few weeks forming a handle from here
  • Wellcare Health Plans (WCG) Health Care Plans, fundamental rank [25/30] up 4%, took a big dive at the open but has reclaimed support and then some with a big reversal

DOWN

  • Starbux (SBUX) Specialty Eateries, fundamental rank [27/30] down 8%, well off morning lows and there should be some support around 30
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Resorts & Casinos, fundamental rank [27/30] down 8%, continuing the basing process; I’d be real tempted to pick this up off the 200 day moving average
  • Scientific Games (SGMS) Diversified Computer Systems, fundamental rank [25/30] down 8%, not coming back for a very loooong time; maybe good short if tests resistance of 200 day moving average
  • Tower Group (TWGP) Property & Casualty Insurance, fundamental rank [27/30] down 4%, taking out support of 50dma again.. go on to form triple bottom?
  • Oceaneering Intl (OII) Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration, fundamental rank [23/30] down 4%, a successful test of the 50 day moving average today, keeping uptrend intact
Stocks

Breakout Highlights (7.16.06 – 7.31.06) [Bancorp (TBBK) & Gilead Sciences (GILD)]

Leave a comment

With the market staging a rally in the last half of July, the number of breakouts picked up significantly and the success rate was much higher.  New leaders are emerging in banking, telecom and health/drug related issues as the market tries to pull itself out of the correction.  Oil stocks also continue to do well as most continue to report record profits. 

IN the last half of July, there were total of 41 breakouts tracked in the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracking database, with 22 finishing the period with a gain, 2 with no gain and 11 with a loss.  Just 2 stocks dropped 8% or more, indicating a failed breakout.  That’s a darn good success rate.  If you were in oil and banking stocks you did well at the end of the month, with about half of the breakouts occurring in these industries (10 in banking, 8 in oil). 

The biggest breakouts, with gains of 18% from the breakout occurred in Grupo Simec (SIM), a Mexican steel producer; Datalink Corp (DTLK), a data storage solutions provider and Flag Financial (FLAG), a small bank holding company providing banking, mortgage, investment and insurance services.  The biggest loser was no contest – Baidu.com (BIDU) plummeted 27% during the period and is currently testing support of its 200 day moving average.

Below is a screenshot of the database with shows the top 8 breakouts for the last 2 weeks of July.  Please click here to see the larger image.

The top 2 highest rated breakouts for the period just happen to remain in a buyable range (although technically Gilead Sciences should get a new pivot point sine the break above the handle on 7/26 was with weak volume).  It would provide a nice entry on a break from current consolidation above 63.  The top breakout in the period was once again a bank stock!  If you haven’t had a chance you may like to see the last Breakout Highlights report, in which I highlighted one of the highest rated bank stocks in the database – Cascade Bancorp (CACB).  It’s currently well extended past a proper buy point, but may consolidate soon. 

Let’s have a look at the charts of a couple top ranked breakouts – Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Bancorp (TBBK).

TBBK first broke out on July 19th and it looked like at the time it would be off to the races like other high quality bank stocks.. but the very next day it reversed course and has been meandering quietly since.  I thought that its earnings report yesterday would be more of a catalyst for movement in either direction, but it continues trade quietly.  Although it remains in a buyable range and above key support of the 50 day moving average, I’d be hesitant to initiate a position here before the next Fed meeting.  I"m holding off on this one until after the Fed meeting unless it stages a big high volume move out of this consolidation before then.

You see the first breakout attempt with poor volume, so a purchase there should have been avoided.  GILD is a great company and has formed a decent looking base, but it’s a bit on the severe side in the left of the base.. I would probably avoid this one at the breakout unless it was showing volume at least double the average.

Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Aquantive (AQNT), Keystone Automotive (KEYS)

Leave a comment

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Aquantive (AQNT) Advertising, fundamental rank [26/30] up 20%, bouncing off support around 20 and looking to carve out right side of base; still faces resistance though
  • Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH) Business/Software & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] up 7%, attempting breakout move
  • Holly Corp (HOC) Oil/Gas Refining & Marketing, fundamental rank [26/30] up 4%, continues running to all time highs
  • Garmin (GRMN) Scientific & Technical Instruments, fundamental rank [26/30] up 2%, retreating from resistance of 50 day moving average; well off highs of this morning

DOWN

  • Keystone Automotive (KEYS) Auto Parts Wholesale, fundamental rank [23/30] down 12%, well off morning lows but still well below 200 day moving average
  • J2 Global Communications (JCOM) Internet Software & Services, fundamental rank [28/30] down 8%, turned away from 50 day moving average, will test 200 day in coming days
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers

Leave a comment

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • CE Franklin (CFK) Industrial Equipment Wholesale, fundamental rank [25/30] up 5%, Trying to move up the right side of a new base but still faces resistance of 50 and 200 day moving averages

DOWN

  • Zevex International (ZVXI) Medical Appliances & Equipment, fundamental rank [22/30] down 22%, still has support of 200 day moving average
  • AM Castle & Company (CAS) Wholesale(other), fundamental rank [25/30] down 13%, base might be failing although still has support of 50 and 200 day moving averages
  • Expeditors (EXPD) Air Delivery & Freight Service, fundamental rank [25/30] down 11%, testing support of 200 day moving average
  • Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) Railroad, fundamental rank [25/30] down 11%, another railroad down the wrong track..taking out support of its 3.5 year trend line
State of the Stock Market

Dow Also Surges Above Downward Trend Line, But Market is Flashing Red Flags

Leave a comment

Last Tuesday, the S&P500 became the first major index to rise above resistance of its downward trend line.  On Friday, the Dow too, was able to follow in the S&P’s footsteps.  Time to jump into long positions right?  Not so fast.  There are some glaring red flags indicating that this market is still on shaky ground.  The big concern is volume (more on that in a minute), but there are also problems with the number of high quality successful breakouts.  Friday, I remember scanning my database as well as other info sources for high quality breakouts.. outside of PVTB, I wasn’t seeing much that interested me.    A run down of the charts revealed many moves were ocurring off oversold conditions and many of those moves lacked volume.  Clearly, high growth stocks have lost their luster of late.  Not what you want to see in a market rally.  With big pharma, cigarettes, select banks, utilities and some large cap names like AT&T (T) and Comcast (CMCSA) doing well, traders continue to put money into the more defensive areas.

The biggest concern is the lack of volume behind the latest market rallies, most notably last Tuesday and again on Friday as the Dow also broke through resistance of its downward  trend line.  I for one am becoming increasingly skeptical of this two week surge in the market.  With more resistance levels on the horizon, it pays to remain largely on the sidelines until we get a big price AND volume move.  That would signal that the big fellas have come to play the long side.. and a signal for you to follow their lead. 

Taking a look at the chart of the S&P 500 below, you see that the index made some key moves last week by clearing 3 resistance levels of the 50/200 day moving averages and the downward trend line.  It also remains above the 2 year trend line I’ve discussed in previous reports.  That’s the good news.  The bad news as I mentioned above is that lack of volume (in addition to looming resistance areas somewhere between 1280 -1290).  Looks like we’re going to see some selling very soon.  Pay attention to volume levels on the sell side.  Are institutions using the rally to dump shares?  That would show up in increasing sell volume levels in the coming days.

se

Not surprising, the Dow looks very similar.  It too cleared several resistance areas last week but looks shaky up here (at least in the short term) with a lack of momentum behind the move as it faces another round of resistance. 

The Nasdaq has long a way to go before you could declare a new uptrend.  It has yet to clear any resistance levels and still remains submerged below that 2 year trend line I have discussed in past market reports.  It’s difficult to have a sustained market rally without the Naz involved.

Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – FormFactor (FORM), Rackable Systems (RACK)

Leave a comment

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • FormFactor (FORM) Semiconductor – Broadline, fundamental rank [24/30] up 19%, continuing bounce off 200 day moving average after a failed breakout attempt
  • Phase Forward (PFWD) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 18%, beginning move of right side of base?
  • Digital River (DRIV) Internet Software & Services, fundamental rank [26/30] up 9%, continuing push up right side of nice looking base
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Waste Management, fundamental rank [25/30] up 8%, carving out right side of base

DOWN

  • Rackable Systems (RACK) Diversified Computer Systems, fundamental rank [23/30] down 39%, adios RACK
  • Baker Hughes (BHI) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [25/30] down 5%, most likely headed to retest lows of correction
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Kendle International (KNDL)

Leave a comment

Here are today’s notable earnings movers… there are quite a few moving today

Note:

* fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
* earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so
  won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Internet Software & Services, fundamental rank [27/30] up 24%, nearing breakout from base; looks like it will have enough momentum to clear a new multi year high tomorrow
  • Core Laboratories (CLB) Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 12%, carving out right side of base (near a breakout to new all time high)
  • VCA Antech (WOOF) Personal Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 10%, breaking out to all time high
  • Harsco Corp (HSC) Conglomerates, fundamental rank [23/30] up 10%, back from the dead; clearing resistance of 50 and 200 day moving averages
  • Dr Reddy’s Labs (RDY) Drug Manufacturers, fundamental rank [22/30] up 9%, continuing to bounce off 200 day moving average and push through resistance of 50 dma; carving out right side of base
  • Questar Corp (STR) Gas Utilities, fundamental rank [25/30] up 7%, continuing to carve out right side of long base; near breakout to all time high
  • LKQ Corp (LKQX) Auto Parts Wholesale, fundamental rank [25/30] up 7%, carving out right side of base
  • ICT Group (ICTG) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [25/30] up 7%, trying to carve out right side of base but being turned away at resistance of 50dma today
  • Raymond James Financial (RJF) Investment Brokerage, fundamental rank [23/30] up 7%, nice bounce off 200 day moving average today; also clearing resistance of 50dma
  • America Movil (AMX) Wireless Communications, fundamental rank [25/30] up 5%, carving out right side of base
  • Commscope (CTV) Communication Equipment, fundamental rank [22/30] up 5%, touched new all time high briefly this morning before pulling back; probably forms handle from here

DOWN

  • Kendle International (KNDL) Drug Manufacturers, fundamental rank [25/30] down 22%, taking out support of both 50 and 200 day moving averages

  • Baidu.com (BIDU) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [26/30] down 19%, healthy looking base destroyed; likely headed to 200dma
  • Smith Micro Software (SMSI) Application Software, fundamental rank [25/30] down 12%, gaps down below 50 day moving average setting up long basing period
  • Penn National Gaming (PENN) Resorts & Casinos, fundamental rank [25/30] down 11%, well off the lows of the morning but still below support of 200 day moving average
  • Palomar Medical Tech (PMTI) Medical Appliances & Equipment, fundamental rank [27/30] down 10%, may be finding support at 200 day moving average
  • TheStreet.com (TSCM) Internet Info Providers, fundamental rank [28/30] down 10%, turned away at resistance of 50 day moving average; looks like decent short
  • Kirby Corp (KEX) Shipping, fundamental rank [24/30] down 6%, trying to hold at 200 day moving average
Company Earnings

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Trimble Navigation (TRMB), Choice Hotels International (CHH)

Leave a comment

Today’s Notable Earnings Movers – Hologic (HOLX), NutriSystem (NTRI)

Here are today’s notable earnings movers…

Note: * fundamental rank in brackets does not include latest results
         * earnings movers only include those stocks in the SelfInvestors.com database at this time, so
           won’t include managed stocks that are technically damaged (ie. YHOO)

UP

  • Trimble Navigation (TRMB) Scientific & Technical Instruments, fundamental rank [25/30] up 11%, carving out right side of nice looking base
  • Homex Development (HXM) Property Manage/Development, fundamental rank [26/30] up 7%, carving out right side of sharp V base
  • General Cable (BGC) Industrial Equipment, fundamental rank [24/30] up 7%, carving out right side of base

DOWN

  • Choice Hotels International (CHH) Lodging, fundamental rank [26/30] down 23%, currently testing 200 day moving average
  • Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) Business/Management Services, fundamental rank [23/30] down 14%, significantly off morning lows after bouncing from support at 25, but still well below 200 day moving average
  • Carpenter Technology (CRS) Steel & Iron, fundamental rank [27/30] down 14%, on its way to testing 200 day moving average
  • Hydril (HYDL) Oil & Gas Equip/Services, fundamental rank [25/30] down 9%, turned away at resistance of 50 and 200 day moving averages; well off lows of morning though
  • Under Armour (UARM) Apparel Clothing, fundamental rank [25/30] down 5%, holding above 50 day moving average keeping late June breakout intact despite today’s heavy selling