All posts by Tate Dwinnell

Notable Earnings For July 19th: Yahoo, Intel, Amgen, Ventana, USANA…

Earnings season is really beginning to ramp up and tomorrow will be the busiest day yet.  IBM reported stellar reports after the bell today and earnings reports from big names like Yahoo, Amgen, Intel and Juniper will come tomorrow.

Morning Reports:

The big guys will report after the bell, but a slew of lesser known names will kick things off in the morning.  Two companies I’ll be watching with interest are Ventana Medical Systems (VMSI) and Peabody Energy (BTU).  I have VMSI as the highest rated company reporting tomorrow with an overall rank of 52 (out of 60).  However, the stock has already had a tremendous run and technically looks a bit shaky here.  It’s probably due for a correction and tomorrow’s earnings report may just be that catalyst.  We shall see.  Ventana Medical Systems, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets instrument-reagent systems that automate slide staining in anatomical pathology and drug-discovery laboratories worldwide.

Another company I’ve got my eye on tomorrow morning will be Peabody Energy (BTU).  The coal producer has seen accelerating growth in recent quarters and continues to look good technically despite recently breaking out of a late stage base.  The stock is currently extended from a proper buy point.

Other companies reporting in the morning include: ARMHY, GLYT, RVSN, PCH, LSS and JEF.

I’ll take a quick look at all the companies reporting after the bell on Tuesday, July 19th in a post tomorrow morning. Remember: Be cautious during earnings season. 

Notable Earnings for July 14th

There are several earnings reports to keep an eye on tomorrow, all coming before the bell or soon thereafter.  The one I’ll be watching closely comes from United Health Care (UNH).  The managed health care companies have had a tremendous run over the past few years and the earnings and sales growth aren’t likely to slow anytime soon.  I’ve been holding Wellcare Health Plans (WCG) in the SelfInvestors.com Model Portfolio for the past few months and the report out of UNH will undoubtedly have an affect on this and other HMO’s tomorrow.  It’s been a steady climb for UNH as the stock has cotinued to find support at the 200 day moving average and most recently at the 50 day moving average.  It looks like it will test that level once again tomorrow.

Two companies that recently broke out of great looking bases will also report tomorrow – MDC Holdings (MDC), a home builder and Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO), a provider of under – car repairs and tire service.  Both companies exhibit outstanding fundamentals as well. 

Also reporting tomorrow are two fast growing banks, one of which was highlighted in the last Breakout Highlights reportHDFC Bank (HDB), India’s fastest growing bank (time of reporting for HDB could not be verified – it’s difficult to get reliable earnings info for ADR’s) and Commerce Bancorp (CBH), a leading bank on the east coast which is attempting to carve out the right side of a year long base.

Finally, Genzyme (GENZ) will report before the bell tomorrow .. a solid company in the same league as Amgen (AMGN) in terms of fundamentals, but RS has been lagging for a couple years below 60.

Notable Earnings: July 13th – All Eyes on Apple

One of those earnings reports that everyone will be watching.. yes, that’s right, it’s time again for Apple (AAPL) to report.  Last quarter, "selling on the news" led to the first correction in many months despite a strong report.  Since the stock has been carving out a base for the past couple months, the odds of a spike up in the stock come Thursday morning are much better than the last go around.  Consensus estimates call for a .31/share, but the whisper number comes in at .36 which would represent a 400% increase over the year ago quarter and continue the streak of accelerating earnings growth to 4 quarters.   Most likely, Apple would have to miss badly for the stock to break below that 200 day moving average.  If I’m in the stock I’m holding, but wouldn’t be a buyer here.  I like to wait until after earnings to evaluate a position for purchase.  Apple will report after the bell.

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Another earnings report worth mentioning comes in before the bell from AAR Corp (AIR).  AAR Corp is an independent provider of products and services to the worldwide aviation/aerospace industry.  The stock has had a great run, rising around 50% in the last 4 months alone.. and for good reason.  Quarter over quarter sales growth has been accelerating in the last 3 quarters with growth of 9%, 12% and 24% respectively.  Earnings growth has been equally impressive in the same time frame with quarter over quarter growth of 999%, 999% and 114%.  Despite the recent run, the stock has yet to clear a 5 year high – the stock has been rebounding after the company lost money in ’02 and ’03.

Taking a look at a 3 year chart and you can see the recent move is the right side of a long base.

Notable Earnings For July 12th: Rocky Mountain Chocolate (RMCF), Horizon Health (HORC) and Universal Forest Products (UFPI)

I will have my eye on the earnings report out of Rocky Mountain Chocolate (RMCF) tomorrow after the bell.  It’s hard to imagine that a chocolate maker could increase more than 500% in the past two years and it looks as though there is room to run.  It’s a very small company still rapidly expanding.  The stock broke out of another base back on June 14th and never looked back, surging 40% from the breakout point. Traders are taking  profits today ahead of earnings and the stock has taken a bit of a hit today with an 7% decline on volume.

Two other notable earnings will be reported before the bell tomorrow morning – Horizon Health (HORC), a highly rated manager of psychiatric and physical rehabilitation programs and Universal Forest Products (UFPI), a leading manufacturer, distributor and and installer of lumber, composite, plastic and other building materials.  The thinly traded stock made a big move today and broke out to all time highs on very heavy volume.  Is someone expecting a blow out earnings report tomorrow?

Today’s ETF Movers: Small Caps Lead the Way

The market is following through nicely, adding to Friday’s gains.  It appears we’ll get another day of accumulation as volume on the major indices are ahead of Friday’s session.  Today, small caps lead the way as indicated by the movement in the small cap Ishares ETF’s.  As far as specific industries -technology, select emerging markets (Canada again!) and some basic materials/commodites are doing very well.  Nice move in Dynamic Materials (BOOM) today.  Add transportation to the mix as well. (Data as of 3PM EST)

Ticker Name Description Current Price Price Change %Vol Change RS % From 50DMA % From 200DMA
EWC Ishares Canada Canada 19.01 0.64 122 63 8.5 11.69
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust Gold 42.49 0.54 46 50 -0.28 -0.91
IJR Ishares S&P 600 Small Caps 57.44 0.97 99 60 7.51 9.6
IWO Ishares Russell 2000 Growth Small Caps – Growth 68.14 1.08 114 50 8.37 8.09
EWS Ishares Singapore Singapore 7.61 1.06 164 66 1.74 4.68
IWM Ishares Russell 2000 Index Small Caps 66.67 1.06 34 54 8.32 8.87
HHH HLDRS Internet Internet 56.61 2.18 140 54 0.98 -5.49
EPP Ishares Pacific Region International – Australia,
Hong Kong, New Zealand,
Singapore
93.68 1.36 43 62 1.9 4.96
SWH HLDRS Software Software 35.9 1.04 31 63 2.05 -0.86
EWZ Ishares Brazil Brazil 25 1.83 86 70 6.07 14.26
IWN Ishares Russell 2000 Value Small Cap Value 67.28 1.22 66 59 8.2 9.58
IYM Ishares Basic Materials Basic Materials 48.12 1.26 81 45 1.52 -1.39
IGV Ishares Software Software 39.84 1.09 347 60 3.53 2.36
BHH HLDRS B2B Internet Internet B2B 2.2 5.77 66 24 0.46 -13.04
IYT Ishares Transportation Transportation 65 1.06 194 70 2.14 0.95

Notable Earnings Announcements For July 11th, 2005

Earnings season is beginning to ramp up and kicking it off this week will be reports from Genentech (DNA) and Posco (PKX) (the Korean steel producer) on Monday.

Genentech will report after the bell.  Considering the big run up in the stock in the past few months, this is not a stock I would be willing to hold through tomorrows earnings report.  Although the company should report outstanding results once again, investors may be looking to take profits on the news regardless.  How about that move in Amgen (AMGN) last week.. looks more like a momentum stock rather than a big cap, blue chip!!

As for Posco, I wasn’t able to come up with the time they will report.  Steel stocks have begun to show some signs of life lately and Posco looks poised to begin to carve out the right side of a base starting with a nice move on Friday.  Many other steel companies have been warning of slowing growth of late, so it will be interesting to see what Posco has to say about the future outlook.

Top Breakouts (6.27.05 – 7.8.05)

Breakouts left and right.. 52 over the past 2 weeks to be exact.  The following screenshot was taken of the SelfInvestors.com premium database.  This particular filter displays breakouts for the past 2 weeks and the screenshot below displays the top 13 (with a Total Rank of 50 or above).  For more information on the SelfInvestors.com premium database and how it can help you find the best opportunities please have a look here.

(too much data, too little room – click here to see a larger image you can actually see)

Of the 52 total breakouts in the last 2 weeks, 37 are currently holding a gain, while 9 have a loss and 6 are holding the flat line.  Clearly, breakouts in small to mid cap growth stocks have been performing quite well despite an uncertain market.

Oil, property managers and banks have been leading the way in terms of number of stocks breaking out recently.  Two top rated oil companies, Berry Petroleum (BRY) and RPC Inc (RES) both remain in a buyable range although buy volume could be better in both of those positions.  Property managers/developers remain strong with another top rated breakout in this group from Levitt Corp. (LEV).  The chart looks outstanding, the stock is a bit extended after Friday’s move.  It might return to around 31 offering a better trade.  I’ve been holding two other leaders from this group in the SelfInvestors Model Portfolio for some time – CB Richard Ellis Group (CBG) and St. Joe Company (JOE) which continue to act well.

The top rated breakout in the database in the last 2 weeks has been HDFC Bank (HDB), a leading Indian bank.  The stock broke out on June 30th, but quickly reversesd and closed the day below the pivot point of 47.60.  However, the stock has recovered quickly, making its way to the next level of resistance right at $50/share.  While you could have purchased the stock at the formal pivot point, I’d be more comfortable getting into the stock after it breaks through 50 and then returns to that 50 level on decreasing sell volume, finding support there.  Considering the severe decline in the left side and the quick gains in the right side, it’s probably best to be patient and see how the stock digests recent gains in the coming weeks.

HDFC Bank reports earnings this Thursday, July 14th.

In terms of technicals (fundamentals aren’t too shabby either), the most promising breakout of the past two weeks (which broke out to all time highs on Friday) has to be in Grupo Aeroportuario (ASR) which operates, maintains and develops airports in southeast Mexico.

Today’s ETF Movers

The market continues to show its resiliency today and is battling resistance areas in the Dow (10440) and the Nasdaq at 2100.  However, volume is not particulary heavy today considering the magnitude of the move.  If the Dow and Nasdaq can hold above resistance levels and volume picks up significantly above the average levels in the last hour of trading, it would be a BIG step in the right direction.

Here’s a look at the ETF’s that are moving with volume today (data as of 2:30 EST):

Ticker Name Price Today Price Change % Vol Change From Avg DI20 DI40 RS % From 50DMA % From 200DMA
IBB Ishares Nasdaq Biotech 71.61 2.08 77 9 8 41 7.54 4.13
EWC Ishares Canada 18.85 1.4 93 5 5 63 7.84 10.88
RTH HLDRS Retail 98.88 1.14 56 -1 2 49 5.48 3.7
ILF Ishares Latin America 94.19 0.75 60 2 1 74 7.31 17.99
IGW Ishares Semiconductor 55.12 1.51 59 -2 0 49 5.39 7.11
PPH HLDRS Pharma 72.74 0.99 32 -1 -1 62 -2.43 1.07
EFA Ishares EAFE Index 52.4 0.87 60 0 -2 58 0.23 1.06
IJS Ishares S&P 600/Barra Value 63.25 1.09 133 -4 -4 61 6.05 7.79
IGV Ishares Software 39.22 0.87 46 -5 -6 60 2.08 0.85

You see that semis, healthcare related stocks and select software are doing well.  How about the Canada ETF!  It broke out of a nice looking base with volume yesterday and looks very strong.

Note: The DI 20 and 40 scores are proprietary indicators of SelfInvestors.com that measure demand in a stock based on price and volume movements over a period of 20 and 40 days.  The higher the score, the greater the demand.  It’s not surprising that the Biotech ETF (IBB) is showing the highest DI scores in the chart above.  Take a look at the chart and you’ll see high volume buying and low volume selling.  It has soared above resistance of the 50 and 200 day moving averages in the last couple of weeks.

Notable Eearnings: Research in Motion (RIMM) Reports After the Bell

After several quarters of tremendous growth, Research in Motion (RIMM)

is expected to begin to slow but still maintain solid earnings growth.  Their earnings report after the bell today should shed some light on the impact of recent lawsuits and the outlook in the months ahead. 

The chart of RIMM is not a thing of beauty and with an RS rating below 50, this is a stock I won’t be touching for some time. 

You see RIMM carving out the right side of a large, very choppy base.