All posts by Tate Dwinnell

ETF Movers

ETF Movers of the Month

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The following table shows the ETFs with greatest demand (as measured by price and volume movement over the past 20 trading days).  The DI score (for 20 and 40 trading days) is a proprietary indicator of SelfInvestors.com and measures price and volume movements.  The higher the score, the healthier the demand.  Of course this indicator is best used in conjunction with other information, such as where the price is in relation to key support and resistance levels (such as the 50 and 200 DMA), which can be seen in the last 2 columns. 

For example, BHH is showing great demand over the last 2 months, but currently sits below resistance of the 200 day moving average.  This could indicate that a bottom has been found, but probably still too early to initiate a position.  Particularly of interest to me are the ETF’s showing great demand, above both support levels, but very near the 50 day moving average.  So I’ll pull up the charts of IGW, LQD, IGE, EWM, EWA and GLD to see if the price is moving up from below or dropping to meet support of the 50 day moving average.  I focus on stocks/ETF’s that are dropping to meet support after rising above.  The only ETF I would eliminate from considering for a long position is LQD which has to prove itself above resistance of the 50 day moving average.

Of the group, the Ishares Semiconductor ETF (IGW) looks the most promising to me, surprisingly enough.  Both the Ishares (IGW) and Holders Trust Semi (SMH) have held up very well during the recent downturn and continue to look strong.

Ticker Name Current Price DI20 DI40 % From 50DMA % From 200DMA
BHH HLDRS B2B Internet 2.16 17 19 1.89 -13.25
EWJ Ishares Mcsi Japan 11.06 6 8 6.04 5.74
IGW Ishares Semis 57.44 5 11 1.06 8.42
EWO Ishares Austria 26.18 3 3 5.56 13.43
IYZ Ishares Telecom 23.52 3 4 -1.05 0.13
LQD Ishares Bond Fund 110.99 3 3 0.29 0.02
IGE Ishares Natural Resources 81.95 3 2 2.04 13.76
EWM Ishares Malaysia 7.35 2 25 1.24 3.38
EWA Ishares Australia 18.4 2 1 2.11 6.98
GLD streetTRACKS Gold Trust 43.61 1 3 1 1.8

The following table is a list of ETF’s showing the least demand.  Not surprising to see real estate ETF’s at the top of this list.  Using this list could provide some short candidates by looking at those below support and fighting resistance.  In fact, both Ishares Realty ETF’s (ICF and IYR) look like promising short candidates with good liquidity.

Ticker Name Current Price DI20 DI40 % From 50DMA % From 200DMA
ICF Ishares Realty 72.59 -27 -30 -1.02 7.3
IYR Ishares US Real Estate 63.77 -23 -26 -1.92 5.11
EWZ Ishares Brazil 26.67 -12 -11 4.1 15.4
BDH HLDRS Broadband 17.42 -11 -11 5.38 12.03
EWY Ishares South Korea 34.71 -10 -9 0.26 9.29
IYC Ishares Consumer Services 59.4 -10 -10 -2.04 0.07
EWW Ishares Mexico 29.09 -7 -5 1.39 13.37
RTH HLDRS Retail 96.14 -6 -8 -3.18 -0.5
TTH HLDRS Telecom 26.79 -6 -4 -2.48 -2.72
XLY SPDR Consumer Discretionary 33.45 -6 -5 -1.39 -0.42
State of the Stock Market

Look Out Below

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In the past several days, the major indices have been hanging on to support by a fingernail.. until yesterday afternoon.  A late day surge in crude and renewed inflation worries sent stocks reeling and the major indices below key support levels once again, settting the stage for further deterioration.  With the number of distribution days beginning to pile up (3 in last 2 weeks and 5 this month by my count) its clear insitutions have been taking profits off the table in August, typically not a good month for the market.  Despite the overall weakness, leading stocks have actually fared quite well (if you’ve been looking at the SelfInvestors.com Leading Stock index lately you’ve noticed that selling volume to the downside has been light), but if yesterdays move isn’t just a quick head fake, then it wont be long before market leaders take a significant beating as well.  Don’t be on the wrong side of that move.  Be vigilant about preserving cash for next move up.  Happy trading!

Lets take a look at the charts.

The Nasdaq violated its intermediate upward trend line several days ago, but has been finding support at the 50 day moving average.  With each day of distribution though, it becomes unlikely that the next level of support can hold.  While, the Naz is hanging on to the 50 day, yesterdays high volume reversal indicates that support level is in danger as well, setting the stage for a drop to the next important level – 2100.

The Dow just flat out looks ugly.  It broke key support around the convergence of the 50 and 200 day moving averages with heavy volume.  There may be support around 10,200, but that hasn’t been a major level of support in the past.  At this point, you certainly can’t rule out a 4 to 5% move to major support around Dow 10,000.  I’d certainly be betting that the Dow will hit 10,000 before it hits 11,000 at this stage of the game.

The S&P also violated a key support level yesterday, when it broke below the area around support of the 50 day moving average and the upward trend line.  The move makes it very likely that we will see a test of the next level of support in the area around 1190 – 1200.

State of the Stock Market

Indices Testing First Level Support

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After a fairly abrubt, unorderly pull back off the highs in the first couple days, this latest consolidation is actually shaping up to look fairly healthy.  Friday’s big drop wasn’t a major concern considering volume levels were below average and less than the day before.  In addition first level support levels are holding for now despite soaring crude prices which is very encouraging.  Let’s take a quick look at key support levels to keep an eye on for the following week. 

You see the Nasdaq bouncing off the first level of support of the upward trend line on Friday around 2150.  The Naz looks as though it will hold that level, but if not the area of previous resistance around 2100 becomes the next major level of support.

The Dow continues to trade in a fairly tight range and maintains a position above support where the 50 and 200 day moving average converge around 10,500.  I’d like to see the Dow break out of this range, providing a signal that the market is firing on all cylinders.

The S&P appears to be settling in at previous highs around 1225 and its shaping up to be a fairly strong level of support.  If it can’t hold here, keep an eye on that upward trend line, which would provide the next level of key support.

Insider Buying

What is George Soros Buying?

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An Insider Buying category has been added to the blog here and a  couple times a month I’ll be highlighting a company where insiders are putting their hard earned cash on the line, betting the stock will rise.  Nobody knows more about company prospects than insiders.  When they’re buying it’s a very good sign and a surging stock price is often not far behind.  Although I will typically stick to highlighting proven companies with great fundamentals, I thought I’d kick off the first insider buying post by highlighting a company that George Soros likes well enough to purchase 3 million worth of shares in.  It should also be noted that other insiders have been accumulating the stock heavily in recent months as well.

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company that develops and markets products for urology and sexual health. Auxiliummarkets one product through its 100-person sales and marketing organization and has three primary products in development. The Company’s marketed product, Testim, is a topical 1% testosterone gel indicated for the treatment of hypogonadism.

Their first commercial product is Testim, which is a topical gel used for the treatment of hypogonadism.  In english, that translates to men with low testosterone levels which is linked to a decrease in energy, muscle mass, bone density, libido and sexual function as well as depression.

While the company is not yet profitable and doesn’t appear to be on the brink of profitability any time soon, sales growth has been very good in the last couple years.  On the technical side, the chart looks outstanding here as it settles in at support of the 50 day moving after surging above there.

www.insidercow.com

Stocks

Breakout Highlights 8.1.05 – 8.12.05

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As the market retreats from the highs, the number of breakouts have been cut in roughly half compared to the last 2 weeks of July.  Also, the success rate has dropped from 77% to 47%.  In the first 2 weeks of August, 34 stocks broke out, with 16 currently holding a gain at the end of the 2 week period.

The biggest loser was Valley Forge Scientific (VLFG), which reversed course sharply after bolting out of a short base on very heavy volume.  It’s a high risk, high reward stock that didn’t reward traders this time around, losing 28% after breaking to new highs.  However, it appears the stock may be finding some support at $4/share.

The biggest winner was United Therapeutics (UTHR), which gapped up to new highs with record volume after another outstanding earnings report in which the company smashed estimates.  It’s tacked on 22% from the previous high in the past 2 weeks.  The company also happens to be one of the highest ranked companies in the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracker database.

The following is a screenshot of one of the several filters of the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracker database, which allows you to pinpoint opportunities in the world’s fastest growing companies very quickly.  The screenshot belows shows breakouts of the past 2 weeks with a rank of 50 (out of 60) or better.  Of course, the more powerful screen is the screen that lists stocks BEFORE the breakout – that is available to premium members of SelfInvestors.com. 

(The larger pop up image is still a bit difficult to see, so I’ve created a separate page for viewing this screen).

 

Sitting atop the list of highest ranked breakouts is Quality Systems (QSII), the provider of software and services that enable the shift to electronic medical record keeping.  Its a stock I highlighted here before its earnings report several days ago and it remains outside of an acceptable buy range.  A return to the pivot, may offer a nice opportunity to initiate a position.

Apple Computer (AAPL)
appears once again here as it did in the last Breakout Highlights report.  A couple weeks ago I mentioned that it broke from a not so well formed double bottom base, which provided an initial entry.  Well, if you missed that opportunity, Apple offered another on Friday as it bolted to all time highs from a nice looking handle formation on very good volume.

Company Earnings

Earnings Highlights: Aug 11 Before the Bell

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The top ranking company reporting this morning with a rank of [54/60] is Urban Outfitters (URBN), without a doubt the best retailer around with outstanding, consistent growth every quarter for the last 3 years.  Management owns a good portion of the company (35%) and institutions continue to initiate new positions.  This morning the company is reporting inline at .36/share which is good for a 49% increase over the year ago period.  Total revenue grew 34% with same store sales growth of 10%.  The stock is down just a bit in premarket trading.

The Knot (KNOT) [Rank 50/60], is an online provider of everything wedding related and certainly a company to keep an eye on.  The company went public at the height of the dot com frenzy in December ’99, but didn’t see its first year in the black until 2003.  It struggled with consistency in 2004, but reported outstanding results for the first quarter in ’05.  Expectations are for the company to ramp up growth for ’05 and ’06 and there is no reason to think otherwise with great results posted again this morning.  The company beat the estimate of the lone analyst covering the company by .03/share by reporting .05 share, good for a 400% increase over the year ago period.  Revenues increased 25% in the quarter, driven by a 45% increase in advertisement spending.  Technically, the stock looks outstanding, although I’d like to see a bit more consolidation in the handle there.  At any rate, results should drive the stock this morning so its worth keeping an eye on.

Others reporting (in order of rank)…

Draxis Health (DRAX) & Centennial Communications (CYCL).

Company Earnings

Notable Earnings: August 9th Before the Bell

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A few high quality names are reporting earnings this morning, led by Hansen Natural (HANS) [Rank 52/60], which is reaping big profits thanks to soaring sales of its line of energy drinks.  This morning the company is reporting earnings of .62/share, smashing estimates on a post split basis by .17/share on sales of 85.4 million, also beating estimates by a wide margin.  That’s good for a 181% increase in earnings from the year ago period and an 85% increase in revenue growth.  The stock continues to march higher and hasn’t touched down at the 50 day moving average since last March.  The stock is up another 10% in premarket trading.

[Rank 51/60]

  • Berry Petroleum (BRY): The leading oil company beat estimates this morning by 2 cents a share on a revenue increase of 45% from the previous quarter.  The stock is currently carving out the right side of a fairly deep base.
  • Tower Group (TWGP): One of the fastest growing companies around.. and its an insurance company!  The company is matching analyst estimates for another outstanding quarter of growth, with earnings increasing 138% (.24/share) over the year ago period on revenues of 50.3 million (92% increase).  The stock broke out to all time highs on June 9th following the first base since the IPO late last year and looks outstanding technically.
  • Asta Funding (ASFI):  A leading consumer receivables asset management and liquidation company is reporting record quarter over quarter growth this morning and smashed estimates for revenue and earnings.  Earnings growth is up 52% over the year ago quarter while revenues soared 58%.  It appears the stock will get a big bounce off the 200 day moving average this morning as the stock is surging in premarket trading, up 10%.

Others worth watching (in order of rank):

Lo Jack (LOJN) – up 14% premarket, NDS Group (NNDS) – up 7% premarket, Salix Pharma (SLXP), Innkeepers USA (KPA) and Ralph Lauren (RL) – up 4% premarket.

Company Earnings

Notable Earnings: August 3rd After the Bell (Quality Systems, Atlas America)

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The highest ranked company (55/60) in the entire SelfInvestors.com database reported earnings after the bell today.  That company is Quality Systems (QSII), a key player in the push to digitalizing the health care industry.  Quality Systems continues to post strong results quarter after quarter, year after year.  In fact, the company was profitable in 1999 and has increased earnings every year in the 30 – 50% range with remarkable consistency ever since.  This evening the company reported another very strong quarter – beat on earnings by .04/share and on revenues by a couple percent.  As it should, the stock is reacting positivey after hours, up nearly 6%.  As far as the base goes, it’s a bit on the short side and I’d like to see more consolidation after a quick runup in the right side.  Other than that, the volume levels look outstanding and indicate heavy accumulation over the past couple months.

One of the highest rated oil companies, Atlas America (ATLS) will report results this evening.  Considering the kind of profits being generated by other leading oil companies, there’s no reason to think that Atlas won’t beat handily as well.  The stock has carved out a real nice looking base and broke out in heavy trade a few days ago, but remains outside of an acceptable range at this point.  By the way, when was that logo designed?  I’m thinking 1984.

The Best ‘O The Rest (in order of rank)

  • [49/60] Penn Virginia Resource Partners (PVR): Blow Out Earnings! Penn Virginia leases coal mines to 3rd party operators and the company absolutely blew past expectations and beat by .17/share, as earnings grew by 87% from the year ago period.  That came on soaring sales growth of 495% in the same period.  No reported change after hours, but this is one worth keeping an eye on tomorrow.  It’s currently carving out the right side of a large base.
  • [49/60] Perficient (PRFT): The e-business solutions provider to businesses reported nice growth from the year ago period and beat after the bell by a penny but guided lower for Q3.  Year over year earnings and revenue growth came in at 40 and 90% respectively.  No change to report after hours.  The stock broke out on July 14th, but remains in a buyable range and near support of the 50 day moving average.
  • [48/50] CNS Inc (CNXS): Blow Out Earnings! The developer of consumer health products, including the Breathe Right nasal strips is another company that blew away estimates after the bell today by reporting .27/share on revenues of 23.5 million (analysts expected .17/share on revenues of 20 million).  Strong earnings were the direct result of a doubling of sales of its chewable fiber tablets and an 86% increase in sales of Breathe Right strips internationally.  The stock is well extended from a proper base, but bounced off support yesterday and today.  After hours the stock is soaring more than 13%.
  • [48/50] Peets Coffee (PEET):  The high end coffee retailer reported another strong quarter with earnings rising 38% and revenues rising 24% from the year ago period.  They beat estimates by .02 a share, but the stock is down a few percent after hours.  The stock is hovering around key support of the 50 day moving average.
  • [47/50] Symmetry Medical (SMA):  The provider of implants, related instruments and cases to orthopedic device manufacturers posted solid results after the bell by reporting an earnings increase of 55% on revenues that were up 32% from the year ago quarter.  That beat estimates by a penny.  The company also uppped guidance for the full year ’05.  No change to report after hours.
  • [47/50] Barrett Business Services (BBSI):  A thinly traded stock off the radar of most investors, but nothing thin about earnings growth over the past couple years.  Earnings increased 253% in ’03 over ’02 (a year the company lost money) and increased earnings 243% the following year.  Growth in ’05 has slowed from those lofty levels, but the company reported another solid quarter after the bell by posting earnings growth of 55% and revenue growth of 25% from the year ago period.  That beat estimates by .03/share and the stock is up after hours by more than 7%.  The stock broke out on July 11th and sits just outside of an acceptable buy range.  Keep an eye on this one!