All posts by Tate Dwinnell

I’m Looking for Top Stocks, What’s the Best Way to Find Them In the Breakout Tracker?

Question:

I like what you have put together at SI and it seems thru the breakout center and alerts I can more easily get what I am looking for.   I would like to spend less than 30 minutes each night and 2 hours on the weekends finding candidates, review existing positions, journal trades, etc.  All orders would be entered after market close as a buy stop limit order. What I am looking for are stocks that generally meet the following criteria.  What’s the best way to find them using your site?:

Fundamentally strong (i.e. 80 or > EPS rank, C+ or better sales/margin/roe rank, etc.)
  • 200K or greater average daily volume
  • Base of at least 6- 8 weeks
  • Leading group (top third of all groups)
  • RS of 70 or greater – or at least rapidly increasing for the last month before breakout
  • Huge volume breakouts, 2-3 times for small caps and 1.5 times for large caps

My Response:

My fundamental score combines earnings/sales growth, margins, roe, management into one score.  I recommend sticking to stocks that are ranked 23 and above.  I don’t currently list daily trading volumes [update: daily avg trading volume is now provided in the Breakout Tracker.  You can filter the tables by Top Industries by clicking the button under the search field (this will display stocks that are part of top groups for 10, 20 and 30 day performance.  As for high volume breakouts, you can set your breakout alerts to above a certain % ,but I recommend not limiting yourself too much here. 

The stocks that meet all of your requirements will be found in the Breakout Watch and Hot Stocks tables, with the best near the top.  The power of this system is that it allows you to stay on top of stocks that have already broken out and returned to the pivot.  Don’t forget about these opportunities.  Notice that I don’t ofen purchase at the initial breakout and prefer to wait for the first pullback, especially in a choppy market.  Before creating this system, I noticed I was watching the breakout and then forgetting about it and moving on to the next set of "breakouts".   I wasn’t paying attention to the breakouts that were pulling back to the pivot.  This system has helped me tremendously to stay on top of these opportunities.
 
In addition, sign up for the premarket reports that give you a list of these stocks in your email box, in addition to the breakout alerts.
 
What I do is just start quickly going through the charts starting at the top with Hot Stocks, then Breakout Watch, then Play the 50 Day.  If you have a dual monitor setup (which I highly recommend) you can have your SI tables on one screen and entering the symbols quickly into your charting software on the other.  After going through the lists I may have a list of 20 stocks that i’m really focusing on.  What do I do from here?  Put that cream of the crop in my real time watchlist charting package (i use TCNET currently) so i can track in real time at certain times of the day.  I will also set real time alerts on those stocks that are near a breakout or pulling back to buyable range.
 
While I use real time alerts, I find the email alerts from the SI system very beneficial because once they are in the system I don’t have to set the alert.  There are certainly times when I have missed a stock in my research, forgotten to set an alert or my real time alerts just weren’t working.  In this business redundancy is very important.

Will You Add a Forum?

Question:

I think you talked of starting a user forum, is there interest for this?

My Response:

There was little enthusiasm for this when I took an informal poll last year.  I believe my time is better spent elswhere right now.  There are so many stock forums out there.. i didn’t want to add to the mix.   I am  toying with the idea of setting up either an internal live chat system or setting one up on yahoo so SI users can chat with each other .. i would join in at times as well, time permitting.  But this probably won’t happen until early ’06 if I decide to go ahead with it.
[update: 1/7/2007 – soon selfinvestor traders will be able to come together in a real time charting setting!)

Top Breakouts (10.16.05 – 10.31.05)

The number of breakouts picked up dramatically to close out October with 44 stocks clearing pivots in the period. However, the success rate was below average (average success rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 65%) with just over half (25) ending the period with a gain.

I’ve provided a screenshot of the first few top breakouts at the end of October.  As always, you may see a larger version of the screenshot of the database.

The biggest winner in the period was Wesco International (WCC), a large distributor of electrical parts, with a gain of 25% since breaking out on Oct. 17th.  It broke out to an all time high 3 days later with very heavy volume and is currently consolidating those gains.

While the number of stocks ending the period with a gain was less than average, no stock ended the period with a loss of 8% or more, which would indicated a failed breakout.  The 2 worst performing breakouts in the period belong to Oxford Industries (OXM), a clothing retailer and NDS Group (NNDS), a fast growing provider of solutions for the secure delivery of entertainment and info to television set top boxes and IP devices.  Each ended the period with a 5% loss, but both continue to look OK technically and remain above support of the 50 day moving average.

If you’d like to see the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracking database in action and get the full list of breakouts before they happen, you can try it out for free for 30 days with PayPal.  SelfInvestors.com free members may sign up by logging into there profile page or you may create a new account and sign up for the premium membership trial.

Top Breakouts (10.01.05-10.14.05)

Another dismal two weeks for breakouts just as it was at the end of September with a total of just 10 breakouts.  The two top ranked stocks breaking out in the first two weeks of October, HDFC Bank (HDB) and Netlogic (NETL) reversed sharply after breaking and are 13% off the pivot point.  However, half of the breakouts managed to produce gains led by Nutrisystem (NTRI), which ended the period up 11% from the pivot.

As always, you may see a larger version of the screenshot of the database.

The stocks that did breakout and remain in a buyable range.. Online Resources (ORCC), Healthextras (HLEX), IRIS International (IRIS) and Adams Respiratory Therapeutics (ARXT) all look strong and may provide an opportunity for quick profits during a relief rally.

Top Stock Breakouts (9.15.05 – 9.30.05)

I would have liked to have posted this over the weekend, but… ok, I won’t make excuses.  Better late than never.  Considering the volatile market at the end of September, which ultimately ended with little change in either direction, breakout stocks fared quite well.   In the period, there were a total of 30 breakouts from consolidation, with 21 ending the period with a gain.  This was about in line with the number and success of rate in the first part of September.

As always, please click here for a much larger screenshot image of the top breakouts screen.

As far as specific industries, it was quite varied for the most part, but the clear winner was steel related stocks just as it was in the first part of September when 5 steel stocks broke out (although in the last 2 days they have all taken a beating).  This time around, Quanex (NX), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), Companhia Siderurgic (SID) and Posco (PKX) broke out of bases.

The biggest winner was Kongzhong Corp (KONG), the Chinese provider of wireless interactive entertainment, which ran up 15% soon after breaking out.  The stock also happens to be the highest rated breakout (along with Gilead Sciences) for the period. The biggest loser was Resources Connection (RECN), which sold off after reporting earnings and ended the period down 4%.

Two stocks showing the greatest demand, as indicated by their DI Scores were Global Payments (GPN), an electronic transaction processing company AND Zygo Corp (ZIGO), a supplier of optical components and modules for the telecommunications and semiconductor industries.  Both stocks are well out of a proper buy range though.

For more on the DI scores and other tracking data of SelfInvestors.com, you may like to have a look here.

I want to take a quick look at a couple of nice charts.  First one is of Kongzhong (KONG), which broke out for a second time in the right side of its base and took off like a rocket (another leader in this space, Netease (NTES) has been doing the same).  There are times when a stock will offer a couple of different buy points, so if you missed the first one, keep an eye on the stock for a pivot higher up in the base.  .. and if you missed that, many stocks will pull back to the breakout point offering yet another chance.  It pays to keep an eye on past breakouts.  Also, notice the nice support at the 50 day moving average.

The wireless telecom stocks have been having a nice run and one of the nicest looking breakouts in this industry comes from Comtech Telecom (CMTL).  Although the stock formed a nice looking, shallow, double bottom base, I wouldn’t have purchased on a break above the middle peak because the volume just wasn’t there.  A high volume gap up above the handle formation offered a better entry point.  The breakout remains healthy despite heavy selling in the market the past 2 days.  These are the kinds of stocks you want to pay attention to because if the market turns around, it’s these stocks that will be the first to take off. 

Top Stock Breakouts (9.1.05 – 9.14.05)

It’s time again for another rousing edition of top breakouts for the past two weeks.  Are you ready?  I know you can hardly wait, so lets get right to it.  The past two weeks saw a nice pick up in breakouts after a dismal last 2 weeks of August in which there were only 7 breakouts in my tracking system.  In fact the first 2 weeks of September saw a nearly 5 fold increase from the previous 2 weeks with a total of 33 breakouts..

Leading the way were big breakouts in Neoware Systems (NWRE) with a gain of 26% and Minas Buenaventura (BVN) with a gain of 18%.

On the downside, Stryker Corp. (SYK) led the way with a 7% loss as it reversed sharply after breaking out and has slipped below support of the 50 day moving average.

In looking at the data for the last 2 weeks, one industry group that stood out was steel.  Four steel related issues broke out in the first 2 weeks of September – Nucor (NUE), Commercial Metals (CMC), Quanex (NX) and Gerdau (GGB).  5 out of the top 10 breakouts listed below are metal related.

Here’s a snapshot of the top 10 breakouts (it should be noted that there were several companies with a total rank of 48 that broke out and the companies that appear in this image aren’t necessarily in better shape than those that don’t appear).  To see a larger, readable image please click here.

Topping the list this time around is Mechel Steel (MTL), the Russian steel provider.  The stock broke out a few days ago, but it was not an impressive breakout.  Just because a stock is highly ranked and looks good technically doesn’t mean it’s an automatic buy.  The volume at the breakout just wasn’t there, so this is a position I would have avoided.

 

Of the stocks on this list that remain in a buyable range, I think Pioneer Drilling (PDC) looks like a solid play at this point as does Essex Corp (KEYW), but I’d want to see Essex break above 25 convincingly.  It cleared the left side of a cup formation without forming a handle last week, but it appears it will form a high handle from here (so I’ll be adjusting the pivot in the database to reflect this).  Anyway, here’s a chart of Pioneer Drilling… it broke out of a range between 14 and 17 this week to all time highs and buy volume is good.  In fact, the buy volume vs. the sell volume has been very good over the past couple months after carving out that funky looking base.  That ugly base took the stock out of consideration for me a few months ago, but the action since then has been quite good.  An opportunity worth considering.

**********************************************************************************************************************

If you’d like to see the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracking database in action and get the full list of breakouts before they happen, you can try it out for free for 30 days with PayPal.  SelfInvestors.com free members may sign up by logging into there profile page or you may create a new account and sign up for the premium membership trial.

***********************************************************************************************************************

Overbought/Oversold Conditions in the Market

Question:

Every now and then people mention caution in a market because of an overbought or oversold condition. I’ve never used this as another tool but have noticed that you have also referenced this indicator now and then. Which overbought/oversold indicator do you use and how do you use it?

My Response:

Honestly I dont use anything but price, volume and support/resistance levels when gauging the health of the market.  I like to keep it as simple as possible.  If you remember, I sent out an email to premium members at the end of July warning of an overbought condition.  I was basing this just on previous resistance levels and the magnitude of the run (which nearly mirrored the length of the previous run from April to June – although the stochastics, which measures overbought/oversold would have confirmed this as well).  Investing can be complicated enough without having to track several different indicators.  My feeling as that indicators such as stochastics (to determine overbought/oversold conditions), MACD (to signal a change in trend), OBV, etc.is just another way of looking at the core components that make up a stock move (price and volume) and how it relates to its movement in the past. 
 
That being said, these indicators can provide another visual picture of whats going and can confirm what you see in the chart.  If interested in learning more about the most common indicators used by technical analysts there are some great free tutorials around from Stockcharts.com and Clearstation.com
 
http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/index.html
http://clearstation.etrade.com/education/reading_graphs.shtml

How Does SelfInvestors Differ From Other Sites?

My Response:

I basically started this site out of a need for a system that would spit out
a list of stocks near a breakout (complete with pivot point) or within a buyable
range ranked according to fundamental and technical analysis.  Think of this
site as a high end investing botique shop catering to a small number of investors
looking for a more personalized approach. Larger sites  will never publish
a list of stocks near a breakout ranked according to  fundamentals and technicals
because too many people would all be watching the same stocks and purchase
points. 

The result of a need for this kind of service is the Breakout Tracker.   Other sites
have databases of breakout stocks with rankings but the database here is
much more refined – every stock that makes it into the database is looked at
by me, not a computer.  This creates a much more valuable database void
of unprofitable opportunities.  Simple filtering will spit out a list of top ranked stocks
near a breakout or within a buyable range.  You can also see a list of
stocks pulling back to support of the 50 day moving average.

Information overload is a key barrier to successful investing and I believe
this service boils the information down so that you are focusing on only a
handful of stocks each week.

Of course the database is just one component of the service.  I also run a
model portfolio where you can follow a "real" portfolio in action,
complete with buy and sell alerts as well as updates throughout the holding
period (no hypothetical returns here!).  There are very few sites that put
their reputation on the line and implement a real portfolio – simply because
if they did they’d probably be out of business.  They prefer to highlight a few
outstanding recommendations and boast how much you would have gained
had you sold at the top.  Or their is my favorite investing newsletter marketing
tactic, showing pictures of satisfied customers who made 5,000 last week
using the service.  That’s fine and dandy, but what they don’t say is how large
of an account they are trading or how they did over a substantial time period.
What a joke.  Be careful out there.

Hope that helps.  The best way to see the difference is to try a 30 day free
trial through paypal.  You can cancel anytime within 30 days and won’t be
charged.  If you have questions during your free trial I would be happy to
open up a live chat session with you to walk you through the service.

Breakout Stock Highlights (7.19.05 – 7.29.05)

It’s about that time again to run through some breakout highlights of the past couple weeks.. and there have been many.  In the past two weeks (using the 10 trading days between July 19th and July 29th), a total of 61 breakouts have occurred and of those 61 breakouts, 47 currently have a gain (through Friday’s data).

The biggest gainer award belongs to LMI Aerospace (LMIA).  The manufacturer of aluminum and specialty alloys for the aerospace, tech and commercial sheet metal industries has vaulted 28% since breaking out on July 22nd and is at 6 year highs.

The biggest loser award belongs to Schmitt Industries (SMIT).  The manufacturer of electronic and mechanical components for machine tool products and laser measurement systems worldwide, reversed sharply after breaking out on July 19th and is down 18% from the pivot.

The following is a screenshot of one of the several filters of the SelfInvestors.com Breakout Tracker database, which allows you to pinpoint opportunities in the world’s fastest growing companies very quickly.  The screenshot belows shows breakouts of the past 2 weeks with a rank of 50 (out of 60) or better.  Of course, the more powerful screen is the screen that lists stocks BEFORE the breakout – that is available to premium members of SelfInvestors.com. 

(The larger pop up image is still a bit difficult to see, so I’ve created a separate page for viewing this screen.)

At the top of the list is Apple Computer (AAPL), which isn’t too much of a surprise.  The stock gapped up with heavy volume out of a "less than perfect" double bottom base after reporting strong earnings, which presented a first buy point.  Many stocks will provide a few different entry points while carving out the right side.  I like to initiate a position at the first entry point and possibly add smaller increments to a position upon further breakouts.  For example, in this case maybe I add a full position after the stock breaks out above 41, then add a smaller position to that should it break out above the handle that is currently forming at 44.48.   Another way to play this position is initiating a position on a return to the pivot around 41, if you missed the first entry point.  It just may provide that entry point, which would be low risk considering there is strong support there.

Considering USANA Health Sciences (USNA) exhibits outstanding fundamentals and one of the best looking bases i’ve come across recently, it’s also no suprise that it sits atop the "Top Breakouts" list.  The stock broke Friday and tacked on more gains today.. I second Paris Hilton when I say "that’s hot."  Did I just say that?