All posts by Tate Dwinnell

Weekly Market Review – Market In Holding Pattern, Looking for Resolution

I hope you had a great weekend.

Following a jobs number that was surprisingly positive, the market was able to stem the downward momentum that began the day before and keep the Nasdaq and S&P above their upward trend lines.  The Dow remains below this level and is currrently testing what is now a resistance area for the index.  It was another week in which the neither the bulls or bears could assert themselves, providing us with any clues as to which direction the next leg of the market will take.  For now we remain in a holding pattern and just may stay there for awhile as the market awaits more clues about the health of the economy.  On Tuesday the Fed will make a rate decision but as usual it will be the wording of the Fed and not the decision itself that may move the market.  Rates are expected to hold steady.  On Friday, we get another glimpse of inflation data with the CPI number.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

In terms of the number of transactions, it was a quiet week for the Model Portfolio, with just 2 new long quick strike profit plays initiated and no sells or covered shorts.  In terms of performance, it was huge week for the portfolio as it soared 8% during the week, bringing the YTD performance to 27.1%.  The portfolio is currently being led by long positions in Google (GOOG) – up 18%, Allis Chalmers (ALY) – up 22% in just a week and Comtech (COGO) – up 23%.  While I’m currently leveraged with margin (using 30% of available), a decent portion of that is in short positions (all which remain profitable), providing a bit of a hedge.  Should the S&P and Nasdaq join the Dow and take out their upward trend lines this week I’ll begin scaling back the long positions and may add another short position.   Current allocation of the portfolio stands at 77% long and 23% short.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Long Distance Carriers                     7.50%
2. Home Health Care                              7.02%
3. Internet Service Providers                 6.50%
4. Drug Stores                                       6.00%
5. Tobacco Products                             5.80%
6. Resorts & Casinos                             5.60%
7. Metal Fabrication                                5.15%
8. Drug Delivery                                     4.50%
9. Recreational Goods                           4.45%
10. Gaming Activities                             4.45%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Silver                                                     -3.30%
2. Personal Computers                              -3.15%
3. Semi – Specialized                                 -2.45%
4. Auto Parts Wholesale                            -2.00%
5. Gold                                                       -1.75%
6. Trucking                                                 -1.75%
7. Broadcasting – Radio                             -1.75%
8. Farm Products                                        -1.55%
9. Independent Oil & Gas                            -1.15%
10. Music & Video Stores                           -1.05%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. US Oil Fund (USO)                                  6.30%
2. SPDR Energy (XLE)                                5.55%
3. Ishares Energy (IYE)                              5.40%
4. HLDRS Oil Services (OIH)                      5.25%
5. PowerShares Dynamic Energy (PXE)    4.80%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Ishares Commodity Trust (GSG)                     -4.05%
2. StreetTRacks Gold (GLD)                               -3.25%
3. Ishares Gold (IAU)                                          -3.25%
4. Central Fund of Canada (CEF)                        -2.85%
5. Unites States Oil Fund (USO)                          -2.70%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. Altra Holdings (AIMC): designer of a wide range of motion control products, such as industrial clutches and brakes, enclosed gear drives, open gearing, couplings, and other items,. Set to start trading Friday.

2. Cal Dive International (DVR):  marine contractor providing manned diving, pipe laying, and pipe burial services to the offshore oil and natural gas industry.  Trading set to start Thursday.

3. Double Take Software (DBTK):  provider of affordable software that cuts downtime and protects data for business-critical systems.  Trading set to start Friday.

4. Genesis Lease Limited (GLS):  Ireland-based company, was recently formed to acquire and lease commercial jet aircraft and other aviation assets.  Trading set to start on Friday.

5. IPG Photonics (IPGP):  developer of a broad line of high-performance fiber lasers and amplifiers used in various processes, including the production of medical stents and memory chips.  Trading set to start on Thursday.

6. NewStar Financial (NEWS): commercial finance company providing customized debt financing to middle-market businesses and mid-sized specialty finance companies, as well as to issuers of asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed securities, and commercial real estate borrowers.  Set to start trading on Thursday.

7. US BioEnergy (USBE):  Minnesota-based producer and marketer of ethanol and distillers’ grains.  Trading set to start Friday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (12/11/06- 12/15/06) :::

Monday:        Wholesale Inventories
Tuesday:       FOMC Rate Decision, Trade Balance, Treasury Budget
Wednesday:  Business Inventories, Retail Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Export Prices, Import Prices, Initial Claims
Friday:           CPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs (GS)
Friday: j2 Global Communications (JCOM)

::: Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them! :::

– SelfInvestors Blog –

None

** Anything you’d like to see in this report or have suggestions?  Just hit your reply button and respond.  I’m all ears!

After Market Report – A Little M&A Leads to Momentumless Move; Stock of Day – Team Inc (TMI)

::: Today’s Market Action :::

A somewhat surprising move to start the week following a week which saw the major indices trip up a bit.  In what is typically bullish action, the market accentuated the positive today focusing on a drop in oil prices, M&A activity and an absense of market moving economic reports instead of the company specific Pfizer disaster.  On the surface today’s action looked a bit more bullish than it actually was.  Price movement was excellent and the S&P moved to a new multi year high, but volume levels did not indicate a big institutional buying today.  Clearly, there remains some hesitation ahead of economic reports in the coming days.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day Dec 4th 2006

Nasdaq: UP 1.46% today with volume 3% ABOVE average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.37%, volume 19% BELOW average
Dow: UP .74%, volume 13% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP .61%, volume 19% BELOW the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP .76%, volume 23% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP 1.98%, volume 14% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks did quite well today in terms of price action, but like the overall market there wasn’t much volume behind the move.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 354 to 53.
* Advancers were up an average of 2.31% today, with volume 4% BELOW average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.03% with volume 30% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP 1.88% today with volume 1% ABOVE the average

* Where’s the Money Flowing *

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/09/wheres_the_big_.html

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Home Construction, HomeBuilders, Real Estate, Gold, Consumer Services
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Broadband

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Internet Infrastructure, Retail, Semis, Technology, Biotech

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Pharma and Oil

** Stocks **

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Oil stocks have begun to breakout and one highly rated SelfInvestors oil play was one of them today.  The company is Omni Energy Services (OMNI).

ABOUT:  OMNI Energy Services Corp. (OMNI) is a service company that provides a range of onshore seismic drilling, operational support, permitting, and survey services, and dock-side and offshore hazardous and non-hazardous oilfield waste management. Environmental cleaning services are also offered, including tank and vessel cleaning and safe vessel entry, for oil and gas companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico. At December 31, 2005, OMNI operated in two business divisions: Seismic Drilling and Environmental Services. In November 2006, the Company completed the acquisition of Rig Tools, Inc.

FUNDAMENTALS:  With the exception of a bad year in ’04 in which the company lost money, it’s a company that has posted excellent growth over the last several years.  Both margins & ROE are excellent and continue to get even better.  Management owns 40% of the company.

TECHNICAL:  Other than the fact the base is too deep, it’s a very good looking chart.  The stock broke out of a fairly long handle formation today with good volume and looks poised to tackle the highs of the left side of the cup around 12.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 50/60 (26/30 for fundamentals, 24/30 for technical), OMIN is in the upper echelon of SelfInvestors oil plays.

Weekly Market Review – Market Holding Steady Despite Economy Concerns

Following a round of less than stellar economic numbers, renewed fears that a soft landing won’t take place crept into the market later in the week.  Despite the fear, the market held up remarkably well.  That was apparent in Friday’s action when large, early losses were largely erased by the end of trading.  What could have been an ugly day of distribution ended up as healthy, consolidating action.  While all the major indices have taken out first support levels of their upward trend lines, support of the 50 day moving averages remain.. an area where i’d expect a test of within the coming week.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

The Self Investors Model Portfolio was off a bit for the week, down 1.2% .. bringing the YTD performance to 19.2%.   In a bit of a strategy shift, I’ve begun to utilize quick strike profit plays more frequently looking to capitalize on quick profit gains in swing type trades (I highlighted a few more of these types of plays in a bonus premium report to you last week).  While the core of the portfolio will remain focused on longer term, fundamentally superior companies, breaking out of sound bases, I plan to allocate around 25% of the portfolio for quick strike profit plays which have the potential to really accelerate portfolio returns.   During the week, I closed out 6 small QSP trade positions:  DSTI (+17%), VSE (+10%), CTDC (+5%), NPSP (+5%), CHNR (-2%) and SYNA (-3%).  With the market entering a correction phase, I’ve begun to move more of the portfolio to the short side by initiating 3 new short positions during the week, bringing the total number of short positions to 4.  Current allocation of the portfolio stands at 72% long, 28% short. 

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration          5.25%
2. Oil & Gas Equip. & Services              4.85%
3. Residential Construction                    4.30%
4. Silver                                                  4.10%
5. Oil & Gas – Independent                     4.05%
6. Air Services – Other                           4.00%
7. Oil & Gas – Refining & Marketing         3.65%
8. Gold                                                    3.60%
9. Oil & Gas – Major Integrated               3.35%
10. Consumer Services                          3.30%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. General Entertainment                           -5.70%
2. Department Stores                                -5.20%
3. Pollution & Treatment Controls              -4.65%
4. Major Airlines                                        -4.50%
5. Investment Brokerage                           -4.00%
6. Sporting Goods                                     -3.60%
7. Internet Info Providers                           -3.55%
8. Rubber & Plastics                                  -3.45%
9. Toys & Games                                      -3.40%
10. Office Supplies                                   -3.20%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. US Oil Fund (USO)                                  6.30%
2. SPDR Energy (XLE)                                5.55%
3. Ishares Energy (IYE)                              5.40%
4. HLDRS Oil Services (OIH)                      5.25%
5. PowerShares Dynamic Energy (PXE)    4.80%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Ishares Broker/Dealer (IAI)                             -5.40%
2. HLDRS Internet (HHH)                                     -4.95%
3. PowerShares Nanotech (PXN)                       -4.25%
4. India Fund (IFN)                                               -4.20%
5. HLDRS Semiconductors (SMH)                       -3.75%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. Allegiant Travel (ALGT): a Las Vegas-based provider of low-cost airline passenger services linking travelers in small cities to world-class leisure destinations, such as Las Vegas, Orlando, and Tampa/St. Petersburg. Set to start trading Friday.

2. Heely’s (HLYS):  Texas-based designer of action sports-inspired footwear products for the youth market. The company’s primary product, HEELYS-wheeled footwear, is dual-purpose footwear that incorporates a stealth, removable wheel in the heel that allows the user to transition from walking or running to skating by shifting weight to the heel.  Heelys sells its products through distribution channels, including full-line sporting goods retailers such as The Sports Authority, Modell’s, and Dick’s Sporting Goods, specialty apparel and footwear retailers, such as Journeys and Bob’s Stores, and select department stores, such as Nordstrom and Mervyn’s.  Trading set to start Friday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (11/20/06- 11/24/06) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       Productivity (rev.), Factory Orders
Wednesday:  Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Credit
Friday:           Hourly Earnings, NonFarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

None

::: Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them! :::

– SelfInvestors Blog –

1.  Dow and S&P Break Upward Trends
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/11/dow_and_sp_brea.html

** Anything you’d like to see in this report or have suggestions?  Just hit your reply button and respond.  I’m all ears!

Dow and S&P Break Upward Trend Lines

Following a little Thanksgiving intermission, traders were in no mood to continue their buying spree.   A declining dollar, civil unrest in Iraq, a valuation question of Google and poor sales results out of WalMart all provided good reasons for good old fashioned profit taking.  Ok, well it was a little more than just profit taking today as both the S&P and Dow broke their upward trend lines and will most likely test their 50 day moving average in the coming days.  If there is a silver lining it’s that volume, while heavier than Friday’s holiday trading, was just a bit above average.  In addition, the Nasdaq is holding the upward trend .. just barely.  Today’s move was certainly not surprising and the action up to this point remains healthy.

The Nasdaq stops just short of breaching that upward trend, but it would take a miracle for it to not bust through that level tomorrow.  Ultimately, I’d expect theNasdaq to test that 50 day moving average at around 2350.  How it does around that level would be a great indication just how much of a pull back/correction we’ll get up here.

The S&P wasn’t so lucky and broke its upward trend, making it likely it will test the next level of support in the area of 1350.

A similar story for the Dow and it too looks poised to test the next level of support around the 50 day moving average which happens to be around 12,000.

After Market Report – Dow and S&P Break Upward Trends, Stock of Day – Team Inc (TMI)

Disclaimer: Please excuse any poor grammar or sentences that make absolutely no sense.. still recovering from a cold and heavily medicated 🙂

::: Today’s Market Action :::

Following a little Thanksgiving intermission, traders were in no mood to continue their buying spree.   A declining dollar, civil unrest in Iraq, a valuation question of Google and poor sales results out of WalMart all provided good reasons for good old fashioned profit taking.  Ok, well it was a little more than just profit taking today as both the S&P and Dow broke their upward trend lines and will test their 50 day moving average in the coming days.  If their is a silver lining it’s that volume, while heavier than Friday’s holiday trading, was just a bit above average.  In addition, the Nasdaq is holding the upward trend .. just barely.  Today’s move was certainly not surprising and the action up to this point remains healthy.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day Nov 27th 2006

* Accumulation (institutional buying) today in the S&P and Dow

Nasdaq: DOWN 2.21% today with volume 3% ABOVE average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) DOWN 2.22%, volume 40% ABOVE average
Dow: DOWN 1.29%, volume 5% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): DOWN 1.28%, volume 20% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): DOWN 1.38%, volume 20% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): DOWN 2.24%, volume 42% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks of course did not fare well at all today.  I’ve mentioned in previous reports that health of leading stocks has been deteriorating and that was no exception today.

Summary:

* Decliners led Advancers 374 to 31.
* Advancers were up an average of .97% today, with volume 5% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 2.67% with volume 11% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was DOWN 2.39% today with volume 10% ABOVE the average

* Where’s the Money Flowing *

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/09/wheres_the_big_.html

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Home Construction, Realty, Gold, Real Estate, Technology, Consumer Services
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Health Care Providers, Oil, Broadband

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Not a one today.

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Fairly broad selling today – Broker/Dealers, Internet, Realty, Real Estate, Biotech and Energy

** Stocks **

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Despite all the selling today, there was a diamond in the rough – Team Inc (TMI), a thinly traded company that gapped up with heavy volume and flirted with a breakout.

ABOUT:  Team, Inc. (Team) is a professional full-service provider of specialized industrial services, including on-stream leak repair, hot tapping, fugitive emissions control monitoring, field machining, technical bolting, field valve repair, field heat treating and non-destructive testing/examination (NDE) inspection services. These services are provided throughout the United States in over 50 locations. The Company operates in two segments: industrial services, and equipment sales and rental. The Company conducts operations through international locations in Singapore, Aruba, Canada, Venezuela and Trinidad. In addition, Team licenses its techniques and materials to various companies outside the United States and receives royalties based upon revenues earned by its licensees. In August 2004, Team acquired the business assets of Cooperheat-MQS, Inc., a Houston, Texas-based company with two primary service offerings: field heat treating and NDE inspection services.

FUNDAMENTALS:  With the exception of a couple quarters of poor earnings results at the end of ’04 and beginning of ’05, TMI is a company that has posted big time growth in the past couple years.  30% growth is expected to continue.  Margins are poor, but ROE is excellent and continues to rise.

TECHNICAL:  The stock did break out today from a decent looking base with good volume on a gap up and managed to hold the gains well.  Relative Strenght is lagging a bit, but overall a decent looking chart.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 50/60 (26/30 for fundamentals, 24/30 for technical), TMI is a solid SelfInvestors breakout candidate.

Weekly Market Review – Charging Along the Upward Trend

It’s been a couple weeks since the last market review.  At the time, the market was showing some signs of weakness, but ultimately the bears were unable to grab any control.  The profit taking was mild to say the least and the major indices bounced off the first levels of support (the bottom of their upward trendlines) and charged higher, keeping the trend intact.  Technically, there is currently no reason to believe the trend can’t hold.  The market continues to look very strong heading into what is typically the strongest time of the year for the market.  The major indices remain firmly in their upward trends with some room to run before hitting resistance.

On the economic front, traders are turning their attention from inflation fears to "is the economy slowing too much".  At this point, it doesn’t appear to be curbing the spending habits of consumers but that could change.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

Following a week in which the Model Portfolio rose nearly 4%, it was a bit of a ho hum week this week as the portfolio pulled back a bit.  Despite hitting a rough patch in the past few weeks, the YTD performance remains at a respectable 17.5% return.  The strategy of the portfolio has changed a little recently as I aim to capitalize on profits in shorter time frames – there were four new quick strike profit plays intitiated this week.  I’m not willing to ride most positions up at these levels, nor am I willing to to leverage with the aggressive use of margin (although I have been dipping into margin just a bit).  On the short side, I was forced to cover 3 positions in the Semis Holders (SMH), American Medical (AMMD) and Claires Stores (CLE).. the combined trades basically amounted to a wash.  I still continue to hold one short trade holding its gain and may initiate one or two more should the market show any signs of deterioration. 

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Sporting Goods Stores                     9.05%
2. Residential Construction                   8.85%
3. Major Airlines                                    7.95%
4. Semiconductor – Memory Chips        7.85%
5. Drug Related Products                      7.85%
6. Medical Practitioners                         6.65%
7. Manufactured Housing                      5.75%
8. Regional Airlines                                5.70%
9. Education & Training Services           5.58%
10. Semiconductor – Equip & Mat.          5.45%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Gold                                                       -4.00%
2. Copper                                                  -3.49%
3. Personal Products                                -3.40%
4. Industrial Metals & Minerals                  -3.39%
5. Silver                                                    -3.35%
6. Nonmetallic Mineral Mining                    -2.70%
7. Printed Circuit Boards                          -2.45%
8. Specialty Retail – Other                        -2.20%
9. Oil & Gas Drilling/Exploration                -2.00%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Ishares Home Construction (ITB)           7.50%
2. SPDR HomeBuilders (XHB)                     7.15%
3. HLDRS Broadband (BDH)                       5.70%
4. HLDRS Semiconductor (SMH)                5.05%
5. Ishares Semis (IGW)                              5.00%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Central European & Russia Fund (CEE)          -5.05%
2. ASA Gold (ASA)                                             -5.00%
3. U.S. Oil Fund (USO )                                       -4.45%
4. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)                -4.40%
5. Ishares South Africa (EZA)                            -3.40%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. AerCap Holdings (AER): sells and provides aircraft management, engine maintenance, and aircraft repair and disassembly services to about 100 customers in 50 countries.  The company is making good money, but growth isn’t exceptional.  Set to start trading Tuesday.

2. Spirit AeroSystems (SPR):  independent non-OEM designer and manufacturer of aerostructures. The company provides structural components such as fuselages, propulsion systems, and wing systems for commercial and military aircraft.  Trading set to start Tuesday.

3.  Wildan Group (WLDN):   provider of outsourced services to small and mid-sized public agencies in California and other Western states. The company operates a network of over 20 offices offering outsourcing services for civil engineering, building and safety services, geotechnical engineering, financial and economic consulting, and disaster preparedness and homeland security.  Set to start trading this week.

4. North American Energy Partners (NOA):  Canada-based provider of resource services to primarily Canadian oil and natural gas producers and other natural resources companies. The company offers mining and site preparation, as well as piling and pipeline installation services. Trading set to start Wednesday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (11/20/06- 11/24/06) :::

Monday:        Leading Indicators
Tuesday:       Retail Sales
Wednesday:  Consumer Sentiment (Final), Petroleum Status, Mortgage Apps, Jobless Claims
Thursday:      None
Friday:           Money Supply

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Tuesday: Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Ituran Location and Control (ITRN), Brocade (BRCD)

::: Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them! :::

– SelfInvestors Blog –

None

** Anything you’d like to see in this report or have suggestions?  Just hit your reply button and respond.  I’m all ears!

After Market Report – Big Selling, But Not a Concern Just Yet

::: Today’s Market Action :::

Tonight I give you an abbreviated report .. it’s getting late, it’s been a long day.  Not much more to say other than we got some much needed selling.  Not even a great quarter from CSCO could save the day today as oil spiked higher and concerns about Democrat intentions weighed on the market.  The selling certainly wasn’t ordinary today.. in fact it was the heaviest selling in months which is of some concern and probably marks a short term top.  The good news is that the indices still maintain their upward trends and it is just one day.  Let’s see how those upward trends hold up in the coming days.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day Nov 9th 2006

* Accumulation (institutional buying) today in the S&P and Dow

Nasdaq: DOWN .37% today with volume 20% ABOVE average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) DOWN .53%, volume 11% ABOVE average
Dow: DOWN .60%, volume 17% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): DOWN 55%, volume 20% BELOW the average
S&P ETF (SPY): DOWN .53%, volume 46% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): DOWN .91%, volume 10% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks didn’t get hammered today as selling volume wasn’t particularly intense in declining stocks, but overall it’s a good day.

Summary:

* Decliners led Advancers 265 to 121.
* Advancers were up an average of 1.69% today, with volume 72% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.67% with volume 4% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was DOWN .62% today with volume 25% ABOVE the average

* Where’s the Money Flowing *

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/09/wheres_the_big_.html

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Internet, Retail, Technology, Consumer Services, Biotech
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Semiconductors, Broadband and Homebuilders (appearing here again)

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Today, it was all about Gold

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Healthcare and Pharma, known targets of Democrats was the only area to get hit hard today.

** Stocks **

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  In keeping with today’s theme of brevity, there will be no stock of the day today.

After Market Report – Political Uncertainty? Not a Problem; Stock of Day – Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

::: Today’s Market Action :::

Today, the market withstood another test – political uncertainty.. and it passed with flying colors, ultimately closing near the highs of the day with volume significantly above average.  Just the kind of action bull markets are made of.  Without gettting into a political discussion here, suffice it to say the market appears almost relieved that the D’s and R’s will work together and that there will be more "checks and balances" in our government.. sort of.  Sounds good on paper doesn’t it?  With the Virgina vote outcome hanging overhead as well as the direction of this new government, I’d expect some volatility within the upward channel of the major indices from here.  Perhaps once the uncertainty is lifted, this market can stage a big holiday run.

Update: Dems get the Senate, lifting uncertainty there & CSCO reports big numbers after the bell.  Should be enough to run up in the morning, but as always it’s all about the close.  We’ll see.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day Nov 8th 2006

* Accumulation (institutional buying) today in the S&P and Dow

Nasdaq: UP .38% today with volume 6% ABOVE average
Nasdaq .16%, volume 26% ABOVE average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP .23%, volume 26% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP .22%, volume 31% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP .51%, volume 13% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks did fare quite well again today.  That’s 4 straight days of positive action in leading stocks after getting somewhat pummeled in the previous 4 days.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 240 to 146.
* Advancers were up an average of 1.47% today, with volume about average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.54% with volume 36% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP .33% today with volume 14% ABOVE the average

* Where’s the Money Flowing *

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/09/wheres_the_big_.html

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Internet, Retail, Technology, Consumer Services, Biotech
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Semiconductors & Broadband

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Energy was the clear winner today, followed by Technology

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Healthcare and Pharma, known targets of Democrats were hit the hardest today.  Gold also fell with volume.

** Stocks **

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Today’s stock is Las Vegas Sands (LVS), the casino operator expecting big things out of "gambling island" Macao.  The stock broke out of a base today to a new all time high.

ABOUT:  Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino (The Venetian) and The Sands Expo and Convention Center (The Sands Expo Center) in Las Vegas, Nevada, and The Sands Macao Casino (The Sands Macao) in Macao, China. The Company is also in the process of developing additional casino resorts and properties in Las Vegas and Macao, including The Palazzo Resort Hotel Casino (The Palazzo), which will be adjacent to and connected with The Venetian, The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel Casino and other casino resort properties on the Cotai Strip in Macao.

FUNDAMENTALS: A company with impressive growth over the last few years, but should be noted that earnings and sales growth have been decelerating over the past several quarters.  Margins & ROE remain outstanding and management owns a large portion of the company.  Overall, a company with very good fundamentals.

TECHNICAL: Now sitting at all time highs following today’s break out move.  The stock hasn’t carved out a superior looking chart and I’d like to see buy volume a bit stronger in the right side, but like the fundamentals, the technicals overall are quite good.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 52/60 (27/30 for fundamentals, 25/30 for technical), LVS is a top SelfInvestors breakout stock and my #1 in the Casinos space.

After Market Report – Bulls Draw Line in Sand; Stock of Day – Charles Schwab (SCHW)

::: Today’s Market Action :::

I mentioned in the weekend review that the bulls had fought off the bears remarkably and kept this market afloat and profit taking to a bare minimum.  The longer the bulls hold their ground, the greater the certainty of another leg higher in short order.  I didn’t expect it to happen today.  Today’s action was not out and out, frenzied buying by any stretch, but technically there was indication of accumulation in the Nasdaq as it reclaimed support of its upward trend line.  Both the S&P and Dow bounced off their respective trend lines.  Yes, today’s action was mighty positive and we should be preparing for the Nasdaq to take out its 52 week highs.  If not, the upward trend line on all indices are shaping up to be strong support levels.  Now bring on the elections!

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day Nov 6th 2006

* Accumulation (institutional buying) today in the Nasdaq

Nasdaq: UP 1.51% today with volume at the average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ): UP 1.45%, volume 7% BELOW the average
Dow: UP 1%, volume 10% BELOW average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP 1.03%, volume 7% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP 1.13%, volume 3% BELOW the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP 1.16%, volume 10% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks did fare quite well today.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 324 to 62.
* Advancers were up an average of 2.13% today, with volume about average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.32% with volume 40% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP 1.58% today with volume 6% ABOVE the average

* Where’s the Money Flowing *

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2006/09/wheres_the_big_.html

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Internet, Consumer Services, Utilities, Retail, Biotech, Homebuilders
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Semiconductors, Broadband and Clean Energy

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Lots of sectors moving with volume today – Networking, Biotech, Clean Energy, Retail, Software, Technology

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Only Utilities sold with volume today.. looks like profit taking

** Stocks **

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Today’s stock is Charles Schwab (SCHW), the full service broker trying to become a discount broker :).. and doing well after the shift.  The stock broke out of a base today to a new multi year high.

ABOUT:  Charles Schwab engages, through its subsidiaries, in securities brokerage, banking and related financial services. The Company provides financial services to individuals and institutional clients through three segments: Schwab Investor Services, Schwab Institutional and U.S. Trust. The Schwab Investor Services segment includes the Company’s retail brokerage and banking operations, as well as the division that serves company 401(k) plan sponsors and third-party administrators and supports company stock option plans. The Schwab Institutional segment provides custodial, trading and support services to independent investment advisors (IAs). The U.S. Trust segment provides investment, wealth management, custody, fiduciary, and private banking services to individual and institutional clients.

FUNDAMENTAL: A company that was a bit slow to offer discounted trading, but once it did the earnings and sales began to pick up again.  Earnings growth has surged to about 40 – 50% in the last couple years with strong sales growth around 20%.  Margins and ROE continue to rise just as they have for a couple years and are excellent.  Once again a premier company.

TECHNICAL: Broke out with good volume today to a new multi year high.  The construction of the base isn’t exceptional but it’s good enough for a great company in a strong industry and strong market.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 50/60 (27/30 for fundamentals, 23/30 for technical), SCHW is a top SelfInvestors breakout stock.