I hope you had a great weekend.
Following a jobs number that was surprisingly positive, the market was able to stem the downward momentum that began the day before and keep the Nasdaq and S&P above their upward trend lines. The Dow remains below this level and is currrently testing what is now a resistance area for the index. It was another week in which the neither the bulls or bears could assert themselves, providing us with any clues as to which direction the next leg of the market will take. For now we remain in a holding pattern and just may stay there for awhile as the market awaits more clues about the health of the economy. On Tuesday the Fed will make a rate decision but as usual it will be the wording of the Fed and not the decision itself that may move the market. Rates are expected to hold steady. On Friday, we get another glimpse of inflation data with the CPI number.
::: Model Portfolio Update :::
In terms of the number of transactions, it was a quiet week for the Model Portfolio, with just 2 new long quick strike profit plays initiated and no sells or covered shorts. In terms of performance, it was huge week for the portfolio as it soared 8% during the week, bringing the YTD performance to 27.1%. The portfolio is currently being led by long positions in Google (GOOG) – up 18%, Allis Chalmers (ALY) – up 22% in just a week and Comtech (COGO) – up 23%. While I’m currently leveraged with margin (using 30% of available), a decent portion of that is in short positions (all which remain profitable), providing a bit of a hedge. Should the S&P and Nasdaq join the Dow and take out their upward trend lines this week I’ll begin scaling back the long positions and may add another short position. Current allocation of the portfolio stands at 77% long and 23% short.
::: Best/Worst Performers :::
– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –
1. Long Distance Carriers 7.50%
2. Home Health Care 7.02%
3. Internet Service Providers 6.50%
4. Drug Stores 6.00%
5. Tobacco Products 5.80%
6. Resorts & Casinos 5.60%
7. Metal Fabrication 5.15%
8. Drug Delivery 4.50%
9. Recreational Goods 4.45%
10. Gaming Activities 4.45%
– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –
1. Silver -3.30%
2. Personal Computers -3.15%
3. Semi – Specialized -2.45%
4. Auto Parts Wholesale -2.00%
5. Gold -1.75%
6. Trucking -1.75%
7. Broadcasting – Radio -1.75%
8. Farm Products -1.55%
9. Independent Oil & Gas -1.15%
10. Music & Video Stores -1.05%
– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
1. US Oil Fund (USO) 6.30%
2. SPDR Energy (XLE) 5.55%
3. Ishares Energy (IYE) 5.40%
4. HLDRS Oil Services (OIH) 5.25%
5. PowerShares Dynamic Energy (PXE) 4.80%
– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –
1. Ishares Commodity Trust (GSG) -4.05%
2. StreetTRacks Gold (GLD) -3.25%
3. Ishares Gold (IAU) -3.25%
4. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) -2.85%
5. Unites States Oil Fund (USO) -2.70%
::: IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::
1. Altra Holdings (AIMC): designer of a wide range of motion control products, such as industrial clutches and brakes, enclosed gear drives, open gearing, couplings, and other items,. Set to start trading Friday.
2. Cal Dive International (DVR): marine contractor providing manned diving, pipe laying, and pipe burial services to the offshore oil and natural gas industry. Trading set to start Thursday.
3. Double Take Software (DBTK): provider of affordable software that cuts downtime and protects data for business-critical systems. Trading set to start Friday.
4. Genesis Lease Limited (GLS): Ireland-based company, was recently formed to acquire and lease commercial jet aircraft and other aviation assets. Trading set to start on Friday.
5. IPG Photonics (IPGP): developer of a broad line of high-performance fiber lasers and amplifiers used in various processes, including the production of medical stents and memory chips. Trading set to start on Thursday.
6. NewStar Financial (NEWS): commercial finance company providing customized debt financing to middle-market businesses and mid-sized specialty finance companies, as well as to issuers of asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed securities, and commercial real estate borrowers. Set to start trading on Thursday.
7. US BioEnergy (USBE): Minnesota-based producer and marketer of ethanol and distillers’ grains. Trading set to start Friday.
::: Upcoming Economic Reports (12/11/06- 12/15/06) :::
Monday: Wholesale Inventories
Tuesday: FOMC Rate Decision, Trade Balance, Treasury Budget
Wednesday: Business Inventories, Retail Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday: Export Prices, Import Prices, Initial Claims
Friday: CPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::
Tuesday: Goldman Sachs (GS)
Friday: j2 Global Communications (JCOM)
::: Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them! :::
– SelfInvestors Blog –
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** Anything you’d like to see in this report or have suggestions? Just hit your reply button and respond. I’m all ears!