I don’t know about you, but a bit of motion sickness is setting in. Today marks the 5th 100 point move or greater in the Dow in the last 6 trading days as bulls and bears battle it out. There wasn’t a ton of conviction behind today’s move but it was enough to call it a day of accumulation and indicate that the bulls aren’t going to roll over and play dead just yet. With the indices breaking out of their short term downward trends, we could see further upside pressure but keep in mind important inflation numbers come tomorrow and Friday so anything is possible. At this point, the market is still in decent shape (never even got close to breaking support of the 50 dma), but the bias is still bearish, so continue to be cautious out there.
::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::
(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day June 13th 2007
Accumuluation across all indices.
Nasdaq: UP 1.28% today with volume 5% ABOVE average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.1%, volume 32% ABOVE average
Dow: UP 1.41%, with volume 12% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP 1.41%, volume 54% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP 1.50%, volume 74% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP 1.32%, volume 81% ABOVE the average
::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::
The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base. Leading stocks did very well in terms of price performance today vaulting 1.53%, but just as with the overall market, there wasn’t much conviction behind the move.
Summary:
* Advancers led Decliners 351 to 62
* Advancers were up an average of 2.05% today, with volume 1% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.39% with volume 7% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP 1.24% today with volume 5% ABOVE average
::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::
Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading. The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s. A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing). Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash. For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/si/industry_tracking/
* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days):
Internet, Agriculture, Technology, Software, Telecom, Networking
(it’s all about tech right now!)
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days):
REIT, Real Estate, Realty, Gold Miners, Global Dividend
* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Oil & Gas Services, Realty, Industrial, Materials, REIT, Utilities
* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
None
::: Stocks :::
The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation. Today’s stock is one of the highest rated biotechs that I track – Lifecell (LIFC) which broke out of cup with handle base today following news of FDA approval for a new tissue graft made from pigs.
ABOUT: LifeCell Corporation develops and markets tissue-based products for use in reconstructive, orthopedic and urogynecologic surgical procedures to repair soft tissue defects. The CompanyGÇÖs products include AlloDerm, for plastic reconstructive, general surgical, burn and periodontal procedures; Cymetra, a particulate form of AlloDerm suitable for injection; GraftJacket and GraftJacket Xpress, for orthopedic applications and lower extremity wounds; AlloCraftDBM, for bone grafting procedures, and Repliform, for urogynecologic surgical procedures. The Company’s tissue process technology produces a regenerative tissue matrix, a three- structure that contains proteins, growth factor binding sites and vascular channels that provide a template for the regeneration of normal human tissue. It markets AlloDerm in the United States for plastic reconstructive, general surgical and burn applications through a direct sales and marketing organization.
FUNDAMENTALS: LIFC is a company with a history of posting excellent growth. Over the past 3 years, the company has posted year over year earnings growth of 180%, 100% and 111%. Sales growth has been impressive as well, with consistent sales growth in the neighborhood of 50% in that time. With this kind of growth it’s no surprise that margins and ROE are well above industry averages. I like to see net margin a bit higher for leading companies, but 15% is quite good. ROE has been rising steadily for several years and sits at around 19%.
TECHNICAL: The stock just cleared a handle formation intraday with volume more than double the average, resulting in a successful technical breakout from a cup with handle base. It finished the day right at the high of the handle. Overall, this can be a volatile stock at times and the big, high volume drop in the left side of the base back in October is of some concern. However, initiating a small position and using a tight stop may prove to be a worthy trade. After all, this is a company with a proven history of outstanding growth.
SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 48/60 (27/30 for fundamentals, 21/30 for technical), Lifecell (LIFC) is a very good breakout stock.
Full Disclosure/Disclaimer: The stock of the day is by no means a buy recommendation. Please do your own research and make a personal decision based on your own tolerance for risk. I currently do not own a position in Lifecell (LIFC).
I’m impressed with the LIFC. Follow through today on strong volume definitely cements the breakout nicely. I don’t have a position yet but its definitely a possibility. Hard for me to get too excited about being long because I’ve been worried about the market but this wall of worry continues to lead to higher prices.
It’s definitely confirmed that breakout well but I am a bit skittish with that big record volume drop in the left side of the base though. I’d me more interested in trading it on a short term basis.. over the course of a couple weeks. The overall market has me a bit concerned too with all those distribution days, although it held up fairly well last week with all the economic news, fed decision, end of quarter. Both the Nasdaq and Dow still have support of the 50 day moving average so I can’t count the bulls out quite yet!