The worst case scenario played out on Friday, with market selling off on the news that the rescue plan passed with ease. Clearly, traders don’t believe the rescue plan is going to provide much relief and almost immediately following the House vote, the market initiated a late day sell off that resulted in the indices reaching their lowest levels of the year as sell volume increased. Their is a silver lining to the action though.. it sets the market up for a final flush of selling, potentially paving the way for a climactic spike in fear followed by dramatic capitulation. It’s important to wait for that kind of action to take place and avoid guessing the bottom.
As I mentioned in my report last week, a new signal to begin dabbling on the long side won’t occur until we see capitulation followed by an orderly pullback. It’s downright ugly out there, but I think we’re very close to a tradeable bottom. I won’t have a look at the charts this week, but please have a look at the weekly charts I posted in my report last week. I still believe that the indices need to test the following levels before capitulation becomes a possibility: Dow 10,000, Nasdaq 1900 and roughly S&P 1020. Watch those levels, watch the VIX in the 50 – 60 range and keep an eye on intraday volume levels in the DIA, SPY and QQQQ. Soon, there will be a tremendous trading opportunity on the long side for some swing trades and my preferred weapon of choice are those ultra ETF’s which provide a great diversified way to play sectors with the advantage of having some leverage behind you. I’ll have a post soon taking a look at the most liquid of these ETFs. Times are tough, but stay positive and aware of opportunities. I’ll have another detailed look at the major indices in my report next week.
::: Model Portfolio :::
** This section will now appear as a separate report about every other Wednesday.
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::: Best/Worst Performers :::
– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –
1. Banks – SW: 1.62%
2. Savings & Loans: .74%
3. Banks – Pacific: -.10%
4. Banks – SE: -.75%
5. Food – Major Diversified: -.92%
6. Personal Products: -1.20%
7. Tobacco Products: -2.15%
8. Processed & Packaged Goods: -2.20%
9. Banks – Midwest: -2.60%
10. Drug Manufacturers: -3.50%
– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –
1. Ag Chemicals: -31.20%
2. Resorts & Casinos: -28.20%
3. Silver: -26.10%
4. Copper: -26.10%
5. Steel & Iron: -23.95%
6. Farm & Construction Machinery: -21.75%
7. Industrial Metals & Minerals: -21.50%
8. General Contractors: -21.20%
9. Oil & Gas Equip & Services: -21.20%
10. Farm Products: -21.10%
– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
1. iShares 20 Yr Bonds (TLT) 3.05%
2. Malaysia (MAY) 1.65%
.. the rest are all bond funds
– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –
1. SPDR Metals & Mining (XME) -26.30%
2. Market Vectors Russia (RSX) -26.10%
3. Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) -25.00%
4. Market Vectors Steel (SLX) -24.25%
5. Market Vectors Coal (KOL) -23.65%
::: Upcoming Economic Reports (10/6/2008- 10/10/2008) :::
Monday: None
Tuesday: FOMC Minutes, Consumer Credit
Wednesday: Pending Home Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday: Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories
Friday: Export/Import Prices, Trade Balance
::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::
Tuesday: Yum Brands (YUM), Team (TISI)
Wednesday: Costco (COST), Lindsay (LNN), Monsanto (MON)
Thursday: Chevron (CVX)
Friday: General Electric (GE), Infosys (INFY)