::: Today’s Market Action :::
Merger activity was a major catalyst in propelling the market higher at the end of ’06 and into ’07 and that was the case today as well. On the surface (looking at price performance alone) it appeared to be a big day for the bulls and may have even lured in a few unsuspecting traders, thinking that the correction might be over. One look at the volume, however, indicated there was absolutely no conviction on the part of buyers today. Most traders are clearly waiting for tomorrow’s housing data, the Fed decision on Wednesday and are wary of current market conditions. While technical conditions have improved some since the massive sell off on Feb 27th, it still remains a risky proposition to get aggressive on the long side. A day or two more like we had today and I’ll be tempted to add a few more shorts.
::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::
(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day March 19th 2007
Nasdaq: UP .92% today with volume 16% BELOW average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.03%, volume 28% BELOW average
Dow: UP .90%, volume 15% BELOW the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP 1.02%, volume 29% BELOW the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP 1.21%, volume 6% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP 1.13%, volume 5% BELOW the average
::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::
The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base. Leading stocks did well today, beating the performance of all major indices with volume a bit above average. However, volume in stocks that were down today was significantly higher than up stocks.
Summary:
* Advancers led Decliners 353 to 80.
* Advancers were up an average of 1.93% today, with volume 8% BELOW average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.42% with volume 66% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP 1.31% today with volume 5% ABOVE the average
::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::
Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading. The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s. A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing). Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash. For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/industry_tracking/
* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days):
Utilities, Bonds, Energy
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days):
Biotech, Internet Infrastructure, Home Builders, Agriculture
* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Oil & Gas Services, Energy, Biotech, Software, Gold, Health Care
* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
None
::: Stocks :::
The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.
Sorry, no interesting candidates for Stock of the Day today. Vimpel Communications (VIP) made a nice move today and looks interesting but it’s a short base and needs to go sideways for a bit before I’ll get interested.