After a week of vacation, it’s going to take me a couple of days to get my head around this market so no detailed commentary for this week. A quick look at the charts reveals a continuation of a dead cat bounce early in the week, followed by more big distribution (Wednesday & Friday). Clearly, the big fellas are continuing to dump positions at these levels, but the technical damage has been relatively contained up to this point. The S&P dipped below support of the 50 day moving average, but both the Dow and Nasdaq have retained their support levels… for now. The downside momentum on Friday was significant, indicating further weakness ahead for the market. I still believe that the S&P and Dow will test support of their February highs at some point.
::: Model Portfolio Update :::
I wasn’t actively trading the portfolio while on vacation this week, so just one transaction was made. I locked in a 19% profit in my Mastercard (MA) position. I’ve been mentioning that I hadn’t been in synch with the market during the April/May run and missed out on much of the opportunity. However, I’m getting back in synch in the past couple weeks and the portfolio is getting in line with the performance of the overall market with a 5.2% YTD gain. I remain confident that I can significantly outperform the S&P again this year despite the April/May set back. Currently, the overall allocation remains a bit biased on the long side with 56% long, 24% short and 20% cash.
::: Best/Worst Performers :::
– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –
1. Industrial Equipment Wholesale: 5.40%
2. Internet Info Providers: 4.65%
3. Auto Dealerships: 3.25%
4. Agricultural Chemicals: 2.85%
5. Semiconductor – Memory Chips: 2.75%
6. Major Airlines: 2.35%
7. Printed Circuit Boards: 2.35%
8. Regional Airlines: 1.90%
9. Data Storage Devices: 1.75%
10. Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration: 1.60%
– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –
1. REIT – Retail: -5.80%
2. Drug Related Products: -5.60%
3. Investment Brokerage: -5.50%
4. Specialty Eateries: -5.30%
5. REIT – Healthcare Facilities: -5.20%
6. REIT – Diversified Industrial: -5.15%
7. Personal Service: -4.95%
8. General Contractors: -4.40%
9. REIT – Offices: -4.35%
10. Water Utilities: -4.35%
– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
1. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA) 6.00%
2. Morgan Stanley China (CAF) 5.50%
3. Ishares China (FXI) 4.75%
4. Morgan Stanley India (IIF) 3.70%
5. Powershares China (PGJ) 3.25%
– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –
1. Chile Fund (CH) -7.00%
2. Ishares Realty (ICF) -4.65%
3. SPDR Utilities (XLU) -4.30%
4. Powershares Agriculture (DBA) -4.25%
5. Powershares Biotech (PBE) -4.20%
::: IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::
Another hot China IPO hits the market this week – this time in wireless communications.
1. Spreadturn Communications (SPRD): China-based fabless semiconductor company that designs baseband processor solutions for the wireless communications market. The company offers a portfolio of highly integrated baseband processor solutions that support a broad range of wireless communications standards, including GSM, GPRS and TD-SCDMA, an international 3G standard for wireless communications promoted by China. Trading set to begin on Wednesday.
2. comScore (SCOR): provider of digital marketing intelligence platforms. The company’s products enable its users to measure their Internet usage patterns, online and certain offline buying behavior and other activities, and it lets comScore project consumers’ online behavior. Trading set to begin on Thursday.
3. ShoreTel (SHOR): provider of Internet Protocol telecommunications systems. The company’s systems are based on its own distributed software architecture and switch-based hardware platform, which allows multi-site enterprises to be served by a single telecommunications system. Trading set to begin on Thursday.
4. Data Domain (DDUP): provider of capacity-optimized storage appliances for disk-based backup and network-based disaster recovery. The company’s storage solutions address protection storage requirements with low operating costs, ease of use, high performance, reliability and compatibility with leading enterprise backup software using its Global Compression technology with industry standard components The company is not yet profitable but growing quickly. Trading set to begin on Wednesday.
5. PROS Holdings (PRO): software provider of applications allowing companies to improve financial performance by enabling better pricing. PROS offers its software products to about 90 clients across five industries in 42 countries. Trading set to begin on Thursday.
::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/25/07 – 6/29/07) :::
Monday: Existing Home Sales
Tuesday: New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Durable Orders, Crude Inventories
Thursday: GDP (final), Initial Claims, FOMC Rate
Friday: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Core PCE Inflation, Chicago PMI,
Construction Spending
::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::
Tuesday: Oracle (ORCL)
Thursday: Research in Motion (RIMM)