Category Archives: Weekly/After Stock Market Review Archives

Every Sunday evening a full market review is sent to members of SelfInvestors.com which provides commentary on the technical and economic picture, a review of the SelfInvestors Model Portfolio, the best/worst performing industries and ETF’s for the week, IPOs to watch, upcoming economic reports as well as notable earnings reports. In addition, on days when the market makes a significant move I’ll highlight the technical action discussing price/volume movements and support/resistance levels, industries/sectors leading and lagging the market as well as a Stock of the Day. In the past these were sent in the middle of the trading day but I’ve since begun publishing them and sending them to members after the market closes. These reports will be archived here as well.

Nasdaq Joins the Party; Stock of Day – Internet Gold (IGLD)

The bullish fervor was in full force today, with a blow out quarter from Amazon fueling the fire.  Kind of takes you back to the hay day of the late 90’s when moves of $5 – $10 was the rule, rather than the exception.  Ok, not quite, but with new all time highs in the Dow, the S&P500 approaching all time highs and the Nasdaq breaking out with force today, there should be cause for some excitement.  The sell off of February 27th is long forgotten and new (much higher) support levels are in place.  At this point, those new support levels could provide a floor for the market to stage a summer rally.  However (at the risk of sounding like a broken record), keep in mind the parabolic rise over the last few weeks with absolutely no pause for a rest.  If you have some big gains avoid the greed and lock in some profit.  If you missed much of this move like I have, don’t chase it.  There are very few good entry points out there right now, particularly in the small to mid caps as this has been a predominantly large cap fueled rally.  They will emerge though.  Patience.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day April 25th 2007

Accumulation in all indices.

Nasdaq: UP .92% today with volume 25% ABOVE  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.33%, volume 13% BELOW average
Dow: UP 1.05%, volume 2% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP .88%, volume 34% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP .92%, volume 1% BELOW the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP  .29%, volume 17% BELOW the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks (smaller, high growth) just did OK today – they significantly lagged the performance of the major indices and the advancers over decliners ratio was just barely above 2:1 (not impressive on a big move today).

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 276 to 123
* Advancers were up an average of 1.69% today, with volume 9% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.66% with volume 49% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP  .65% today with volume 21% ABOVE the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/si/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Semiconductors, Broadband, Biotech, Networking, Utilities
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Agriculture, Home Builders

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Oil Services, Internet, Networking, Transports, Energy

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Internet Infrastructure, Health Care Providers

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Today’s stock is for the most part off the radar of Wall St. with just one analyst covering it, technically bullish and poised for a break out.

ABOUT:  Internet Gold Golden Lines Ltd. is a communications company that provides Internet access and related value-added services, international telephony, e-advertising, content and e-commerce services throughout Israel under the brand name smile. The Company launched its International Telephone Service (ITS) under the brand 015 in August 2004. The license to provide ITS was granted for 20 years. It has two focused businesses: Communication and Media. Communications provide Internet services and international telephony services, such as Internet Access, Value Added Services, International Telephony, and IT Integration businesses focus on the provision of services and support to individual and business end-users. Media provides Website content provision, portal operating, search engines, lead-generation, e-Commerce and Paid Content. In January 2007, the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Smile.Communications Ltd., completed the acquisition of 012 Golden Lines Ltd.

FUNDAMENTALS: Internet Gold (IGLD) is an Israeli company that appears to be on the verge of a major growth spurt.  While a small company that has been turning a profit for several years now, not until the last 3 quarters has the company shown explosive growth.  The growth at the end of 2006 was enough to help double their profits over the previous year.  2007 is expected to be even bigger with an earnings estimate calling for 130% growth.  I like the fact that management owns 70% of the company which indicates they have a strong vested interested in seeing the company succeed.  Net margins aren’t impressive at 7% but it is improving quickly.  Return on Equity is excellent at around 16%. 

TECHNICAL:  IGLD is in the process of carving out the right side of a fairly short base, but one that is looking quite bullish.  Based on the big, high volume drop in the weekly chart at the beginning of March, the base is probably too short to work through that technical damage.  I’d be hesitant to initiate a position on a break out from this current base and would rather catch it on a pull back from any break out.  The company reports earnings on May 8th which could very well be the catalyst this stock needs to soar to new heights.  Put it on the radar.

        internet gold breakout stock

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 50/60 (24/30 for fundamentals, 26/30 for technical), Internet Gold (IGLD) is a very good break out candidate.

Full Disclosure/Disclaimer: The stock of the day is by no means a buy recommendation.  Please do your own research and make a personal decision based on your own tolerance for risk.  I currently do not own a position in Internet Gold (IGLD).

Dow and S&P500 Break Out; Homebuilders & Semiconductors Showing Life

How many predicted that the market would break out to new highs within 2 months of staging its worst sell off in several years?  Not many, if any and certainly not me.  The action has been unusual, but given that the market has a way of fooling the majority, not completely surprising.  Quite frankly, technicaly analysis hasn’t been a good predictor of late.  Usually a massive sell off takes time to repair itself (often times by retesting the lows), not indicate that another bull run is around the corner.  Does that mean it’s time to throw price/volume and support/resistance analysis out the window? Heck no!  Technical analys isn’t anywhere to close to 100% accurate, it just provides you with a reasonable probablity of a move in any direction.  It’s without a doubt right on more than dead wrong. 

So where the heck do we go from here?  Oh right, Dow 13,000 as all the headlines are predicting for Monday.  That’s a reasonable assumption, but lets take a step back for a bit and look at what has taken place in terms of the positve and negative.  Maybe then we can make some sense out of this schizo market.  On the positive side, we have break outs in the Dow to a new all time high and a break out in the S&P to a new multi year (and fast approaching its all time high).  This in and of itself is very bullish.  It doesn’t pay to fight it.  Just as you would with the break out of any stock, it’s important to take a look at the bases of the indices that resulted in the break out.  Is it healthy enough to provide a sustained move for the bulls?  The quick answer is no.  The base is V shaped with heavy volume in the left side and little buyer conviction in the right side.  Friday’s bust out move was impressive on the surface, but remember that options expiration and most likely short covering distorted it a bit.   Throw in the fact that the Dow has now risen in 21 of the past 26 days following that key reversal on March 14th and you have conditions that are very ripe for a pull back of some degree.   I have said before that we should expect  the market to test those February lows again before heading higher, but I no longer think that will be the case anytime soon.  A more likely scenario is coming back to test the 50 day moving average and at most the 200 day moving average.  That just might be enough for the market to repair the damage done on February 27th, not to mention provide a great entry point for increasing my exposure on the long side.

At this point, don’t chase the bull and if you have nice profits don’t be greedy.  Lock in some of that and wait for a better entry.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

It’s been frustrating to continue to sit with half the portfolio in shorts and cash as the market breaks out to new highs, but I’m not going to chase this overbought market and will remain patient..  I’m waiting for the right time to get more aggressive on the long side and that time isn’t now.  I did make a couple transactions last week – I covered one of my shorts in FTEK for an 11% gain and initiated a position on the long side in a top breakout play.  For the week, the portfolio was off .9%, dropping the YTD performance to 6.7% but still ahead of the S&P500.  It continues to be led by my long term core holding in Google which got  a bump after an impressive earnings report on Thursday.  Current allocation is 50% long, 27% short and 23% cash.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Residential Construction: 9.25%
2. Mortgage Investment: 8.05%
3. Sporting Goods: 6.10%
4. Semiconductor – Broadline: 5.30%
5. Semiconductor Specialized: 5.00%
6. Industrial Equip Wholesale: 4.90%
7. Investment Brokerage – National:  4.80%
8. Farm & Construction Machinery: 4.75%
9. Surety & Title Insurance: 4.70%
10. Credit Services: 4.65%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Music & Video Stores: -5.50%
2. Semiconductor – Memory Chips: -3.20%
3. Medical Practitioners: -3.20%
4. Internet Information Providers: -2.05%
5. Savings & Loans: -2.05%
6. Broadcasting – Radio: -1.85%
7. Specialized Health Services: -1.80%
8. Oil & Gas Equip and Services: -1.65%
9. Oil & Gas – Independent: -1.45%
10. Gold: -1.35%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Ishares Home Construction (ITB)  7.50%
2. SPDR Homebuilders (XHB) 6.80%
3. HLDRS Semis (SMH) 5.10%
4. SPDR Financial (XLF) 4.00%
5. Ishares South Africa (EZA) 3.75%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. HLDRS Internet (HHH)  -4.20%
2. US Oil Fund (USO) -2.85%
3. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) -2.20%
4. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) -2.10%
5. Templeton Russia & Eastern Europe (TRF) -1.90%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. EDENOR (EDN): Argentina’s largest public electric utility. Known as EDENOR, it distributes electricity on an exclusive basis to the northwestern zone of the greater Buenos Aires metropolitan area and the northern portion of the city. It services about 1 million people. Set to start trading on Wednesday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (4/23/07 – 4/27/07) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales
Wednesday:  Fed Beige Book, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims
Friday:           GDP (adv)

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Monday:
Grant Prideco (GRP), Core Laboratories (CLB), Amgen (AMGN)

Tuesday:
ENSCO Intl (ESV), Icon (ICLR), Coach (COH), Anixter Intl (AXE), EZCORP (EZPW), Chicago Mercantile (CME), Travelzoo (TZOO), Amazon (AMZN)

Wednesday:
Smith International (SII), SEI Investments (SEIC), Apple Computer (AAPL), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Allegheny Technologies (ATI), International Securities (ISE), UAL Corp (UAUA), RPC Inc (RES), Corning (GLW), Ryland Group (RYL)

Thursday:
NYSE Euronext (NYX), Microsoft (MSFT), Vasco Data Security (VDSI),  Falconstor Software (FALC), Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS), Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO), Silver Wheaton (SLW), Comcast (CMCSA), Monster (MNST), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Cash America (CSH), TheStreet.com (TSCM), Sunpower Corp (SPWR), Life Time Fitness (LTM), Digital River (DRIV), 3M (MMM), CBOT Holdings (BOT), Beazer Homes (BZH)

Friday:     
National Oilwell (NOV), CTC Media (CTCM), Cameron International (CAM), Baidu.com (BIDU), Cameco (CCJ),

S&P Breaks Out But With Little Conviction; Stock of Day – Divx Inc. (DIVX)

::: Today’s Market Action :::

With traders growing concerned about the strength of the economy and declining earnings, positive news to the contrary (along with some M&A activity) sent markets surging higher today.  The S&P500 busted through resistance to a new multi year high with the last line of resistance at all time highs.  Both the Dow and the Nasdaq are nearing resistance of their February highs. 

On the surface it looked a huge day for the bulls, but volume levels revealed a different story – skepticism and hesitation on the part of institutions.  While volume edged up slightly from Friday in both the S&P and Dow, it was still below average.  I mentioned in the weekend report that the more this market moved up (particularly with below average volume), the greater the risk on the long side.  Considering today’s divergence of price and volume, I still feel that way despite the break out in the S&P.  It’s OK to continue dabbling on the long side, but to get aggressive is a mistake in my opinion.  With key economic reports tomorrow and some big name earnings after the bell, we’re approaching a critical area.  Consider locking in some profits where you have them.

Note: The stockcharts.com server is still down, so no annotated charts again this evening.  I’ll try and post them tomorrow.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day April 16th 2007

Accumulation in the Dow and S&P.. just barely.

Nasdaq: UP 1.06% today with volume 18% BELOW  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP .92%, volume 42% BELOW average
Dow: UP .86%, volume 8% BELOW the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP .71%, volume 12% BELOW the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP .95%, volume 20% BELOW the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP  1.29%, volume 27% BELOW the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks performed well today in terms of price performance, but volume levels indicate that institutions were not pouring money in.  This confirms the lack of conviction in today’s move in the market.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 357 to 67
* Advancers were up an average of 1.93% today, with volume 8% BELOW average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.39% with volume 17% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP  1.41% today with volume 4% BELOW the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Utilities, Consumer Goods, Networking, Internet, Broker/Dealers, Pharma
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Agriculture, Home Builders

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Financials, Broker/Dealers, Nanotech, Home Construction, Gold

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
None

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  There weren’t too many top rated stocks breaking out of bases today, so I chose one of the top IPO’s of last year that appears to be on the verge of breaking out –  Divx Inc. (DIVX). 

ABOUT:  DivX Inc. (DivX) creates products and services designed to improve the experience of media. The Company’s product offerings include a video compression-decompression software library (codec) and other consumer software, including the DivX Player application. It also licenses its technologies to consumer hardware device manufacturers and certifies their products to ensure the interoperable support of DivX-encoded content. DivX’s customers include major consumer video hardware original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including Koninklijke Philips Electronics (Philips) and Samsung Electronics. In addition to technology licensing to consumer hardware device manufacturers, the Company generates revenue from software licensing, advertising and content distribution. In March 2006, DivX acquired all of the assets of Corporate Green, a general partnership that developed an online community platform.

FUNDAMENTALS: Aided by the booming popularity of online video, DIVX had a break out year in 2005 which saw the company swing to its first full year profit in company history.  2006 was even better, with earnings increasing 600% over ’05.  One key characteristic that I look for in top stocks is rising margins and return on equity.  Net margins (at 28%) are outstanding and rising quickly.  Return on equity isn’t exceptional, but very good at around 14%. 

TECHNICAL:  This is a stock that still needs to prove itself to a certain degree.  It’s just now making a move up in the right side of its first base since going public in September of last year.  With sell volume drying up at the bottom and a big gap up above resistance of the 50 day moving average following preliminary earnings guidance above previous estimates, I believe the stock won’t have any trouble breaking out and testing its all time high around 32 over the next few months.  A strong break out above the peak of a double bottom base at 24.21 and I will consider a position.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 51/60 (27/30 for fundamentals, 24/30 for technical), DIVX is a top break out candidate.

Full Disclosure/Disclaimer: The stock of the day is by no means a buy recommendation.  Please do your own research and make a personal decision based on your own tolerance for risk.  I currently do not own a position in Divx Inc (DIVX).

Bulls Resilient But Running Out of Gas; Earnings Kick Off & Important Data Tuesday

You have to hand it to the bulls who have shown remarkable resiliency to keep this market afloat.  Following the Fed minutes on Wednesday in which the Fed removed any possibility of a rate hike in the near future (which is what fueled the rally folllowing the Fed decision March 21st), the market sold with some intensity.  It set up the likelihood that, at the very least, the major indices would take out support of the 50 day moving averages.  But there were buyers again stepping in and taking the market higher Thursday and Friday, albeit with uninspiring volume. 

From what I’m seeing, as the market comes close to retesting its previous highs, many traders have all but forgotten the big sell off on February 27th.  What’s important to remember is that technical damage of that magnitude doesn’t just disappear.  It takes time to repair the damage – done with a lengthy sideways consolidation and/or a retest of those lows.  This hasn’t happened.  YET.  It will.  Maybe we continue push to the highs of February, but the closer we get to those highs, the greater the risk on the long side.  Play accordingly. 

Next week is a big week with earnings kicking off in full force.  With housing starts, building permits, CPI data and several earnings reports, Tuesday could provide an important clue as to where this market is headed.

I’ll post an analysis of the charts of the major indices tomorrow night.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

It was another fairly quiet week for the Model Portfolio in this directionless market.  I’m not doing a whole lot on either side right now but did close out a few positions and replaced them with what should be stronger ones.  I closed out my TIE position for a small 5% gain and replaced it with a top Chinese play.  Also closed out were 3 Quick Strike Profit plays that while still fairly bullish, were showing enough weakness for me to cut and run.  With the market still needing to repair significant damage and likely to see further selling at some point, I’m moving on at any sign of weakness, however small.   Closed were JAV (+5%), TTG (-3%) and MFN (-2%).  These were replaced with 2 other QSP plays, both of which remain profitable.  For the week, the portfolio edged up just .1% and stands firm with a 7.6% YTD return.  Current allocation remains a bit on the bearish side with 40% long, 35% short and 25% in cash.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Railroads: 6.75%
2. Recreational Goods: 4.85%
3. Long Term Care Facilities: 4.50%
4. Technical Services : 4.45%
5. Heavy Construction: 4.35%
6. Copper: 4.25%
7. Silver:  4.15%
8. Nonmetallic Mineral Mining: 4.15%
9. Manufactured Housing: 3.85%
10. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services: 3.65%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Advertising Agencies: -3.75%
2. Toy & Hobby Stores: -3.05%
3. General Entertainment: -2.60%
4. Auto Manufacturers: -2.20%
5. Pollution & Treatment Controls: -2.05%
6. Residential Construction: -1.85%
7. Diversified Computer Systems: -1.85%
8. Savings & Loans -1.80%
9. REIT – Hotel/Motel: -1.80%
10. REIT – Residential: -1.65%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Morgan Stanley China (CAF)  5.20%
2. Central Europe and Russia Fund (CEE) 5.15%
3. Morgan Stanley India (IIF) 5.00%
4. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) 4.40%
5. India Fund (IFN) 3.80%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Japan Small Cap (JOF)  -3.80%
2. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA) -1.40%
3. Ishares Japan (EWJ) -1.15%
4. HLDRS Retail (RTH) -1.00%
5. US Oil Fund (USO) -.95%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. MetroPCS Communications (PCS): provider of wireless broadband personal communication services. The company offers service on the basis of no long-term contract, flat-rate, unlimited usage in selected major metropolitan markets in the United States. The company serves over 3 million customers in the San Francisco, Miami, Tampa/Sarasota/Orlando, Atlanta, Sacramento, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Detroit metropolitan areas.  The company is profitable and will begin trading on Thursday.

2. Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (SCR): China-based manufacturer and supplier of branded generic pharmaceuticals in China. The company  manufactures and sells 35 pharmaceutical products, including antibiotics, an anti-cancer medication and an anti-stroke medication. Simcere also has 12 product candidates in various stages of development, including treatments for cancer, cerebrovascular diseases, infections, rheumatoid arthritis, nasal allergies, nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy.  Profits and sales have increased significantly over the past year.  Trading set to begin on Friday.

3.  Superior Offshore International (DEEP): provider of subsea construction and commercial diving services to the crude oil and natural gas exploration and production and gathering and transmission industries on the outer continental shelf of the Gulf of Mexico.  Profits and sales have more than tripled over the past year.  Trading set to begin on Friday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (4/16/07 – 4/20/07) :::

Monday:        Retail Sales; Business Inventories
Tuesday:       CPI; Housing Starts; Building Permits; Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Wednesday:  Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Leading Indicators, Initial Claims
Friday:           None

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Monday:   None
Tuesday:  Steel Dynamics (STLD), EMC Corp (EMC)
Wednesday: Ebay (EBAY), Alliance Data Systems (ADS),
Thursday: Google (GOOG), Cybersource (CYBS), Schering Plough (SGP), United Health (UNH)
                   CBOT Holdings (BOT)
Friday: Schlumberger (SLB)

In No Man’s Land; China Surges, Banks Slip; FOMC Minutes, PPI On Tap

It’s been a couple weeks since I’ve sent out a market report, but with the holiday weekend and traders not willing to commit one way or another, there hasn’t been much to report on.  So, that’s where we remain.  A stalemate.  I think at this point you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and believe that it’s possible we’ll test the old highs.  I’m 50/50 right now as long as we remain above those 50 day moving averages in the major indices.   Any high volume selling and a breach of those support levels and we’re looking at a test of prior lows somewhere along the 200 day moving averages.  The bottom line is that we’re kind of in no man’s land here.  I’ve been saying it for several weeks again and I’ll continue to say it.   If you’re not a short term trader, it’s best to stear clear of this market right now.  I still think before it’s all said and done we will test those 200 day moving averages.  It’s just going to be extremely difficult for the market to blow through those multi year highs with authority.  I’m waiting for more clues before I make large bets on either side.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

I’m don’t have much time to write up a detailed report this week regarding positions traded in the portfolio last week, but I will say that I increased my exposure to the long side significantly to get the portfolio biased to the long side.  I continue to feel that longer term core holding are too much of a risk right now and prefer the short Quick Strike Profit plays.  I’m hesitant to increase my exposure any more on the long side considering that there is still a decent chance that the market could test previous lows.  Ideally, I’d like to exit a few of my QSP trades for quick profits and then just sit primarily in cash until this market works itself out.  Currently, the portfolio holds steady at 7.5% YTD return and it hasn’t budged from that level for several weeks.  Current allocation is 49% long, 34% short and 17% cash.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Long Distance Carriers: 7.60%
2. Major Airlines: 6.80%
3. Industrial Metals & Minerals: 6.45%
4. Silver : 6.00%
5. Nonmetallic Mineral & Mining: 5.40%
6. Diversified Communications: 5.25%
7. Railroads:  5.15%
8. Diagnostic Substances: 5.00%
9. General Contractors: 4.65%
10. Synthetics: 4.55%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Dairy Products: -4.10%
2. Farm Products: -3.50%
3. Banks – SE Regional: -2.00%
4. Toy & Hobby Stores: -1.85%
5. Semiconductor – Memory Chips: -1.80%
6. Advertising Agencies: -1.80%
7. Regional – Pacific Banks: -1.60%
8. Diversified Electronics -1.20%
9. Banks – SW Region: -1.20%
10. Savings & Loans: -1.05%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. Morgan Stanley China (CAF)  13.95%
2. Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF) 9.05%
3. China Fund (CHN) 6.60%
4. Turkish Invest Fund (TKF) 6.30%
5. Ishares Singapore (EWS) 5.90%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin (CUBA)  -9.35%
2. United States Oil Fund (USO) -5.60%
3. PowerShares Commodity (SLV) -1.10%
4. KBW Bank (KBE) -.95%
5. Ishares Commodity (GSG) -.50%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

It’s a light week for IPO’s .. none worth watching.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (4/9/07 – 4/13/07) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       None
Wednesday:  FOMC Minutes, Crude Inventories, Treasury Budget
Thursday:      Export/Import Prices, Initial Claims
Friday:           PPI, Trade Balance

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Wednesday: Research in Motion (RIMM), Genentech (DNA)

Thursday: Vimpel Communications (VIP), Fastenal Co. (FAST)

Friday: Infosys Technologies (INFY)

Oil, Bernanke, Economic Data Temper Enthusiasm; Stock Pick – Houston Wireless & Cable (HWCC)

Apologies for getting the report out so late tonight.  IE7 froze (surprise, surprise) and half the report wasn’t saved.  Is it just me or do others find themselves using Fire Fox almost exclusively?    I know I won’t ever write a web based report in IE again! Note to Microsoft: if you’re going to release a browser prone to freezing at least  provide a built in auto save feature! Enough of my rant…

::: Today’s Market Action :::

It’s becoming a common expectation that when Bernanke speaks, the market rises.  It’s also a common expectation that the market punishes the masses.  Although I wouldn’t call today a punishing, the market sold off hard enough to set up some kind of retracement of the rally we saw last week.  Bernanke, while positive on the overall economy and not yet overly concerned about the subprime market, did issue a reminder that inflation was still a concern and implied that the markets’ reaction following the recent Fed rate decision may have been a bit too optimistic. 

From a technical standpoint, volume levels came in higher than in past days, but it wasn’t above average.  I’d call it a healthy consolidation of recent gains.  At this point, we can’t rule out a possible under cutting of the previous lows to test the 200 day moving averages (which would look something like a W double bottom base).  A couple more days like today and I’d be dipping my toes into the "long" end of the pool.  For now, I remain confortable with a portfolio biased to the short side with a significant amount of cash on the sidelines waiting for the right opportunities.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day March 28th 2007

Nasdaq: DOWN .83% today with volume 1% BELOW  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) DOWN 1.07%, volume 8% ABOVE average
Dow:DOWN .78%, volume 1% BELOW  the average
Dow ETF (DIA):DOWN .72%, volume 46% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): DOWN .73%, volume 59% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): DOWN .60%, volume 15% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks performed about in line with the rest of the market today .. selling but with light volume.

Summary:

* Decliners led Advancers 298 to 115.
* Advancers were up an average of .95% today, with volume 3% ABOVE average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.38% with volume 11% BELOW average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was DOWN .72% today with volume 4% BELOW  the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Utilities, Energy, Software, Commodities
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Biotech, Home Builders, Internet Infrastructure

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Oil & Gold

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
Biotech, Home Builders, Internet Infrastructure, Agriculture

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Today’s stock is Houston Wireless and Cable (HWCC)

ABOUT:  Houston Wire & Cable Company (HWC), formerly known as HWC Holding Corporation, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, HWC Wire & Cable Company, Advantage Wire & Cable and Cable Management Services Inc., distributes specialty electrical wire and cable to the United States electrical distribution market through 11 locations in 10 states throughout the United States. The Company offers products in most categories of specialty wire and cable, including continuous and interlocked armor cable; control and power cable; electronic wire and cable; flexible and portable cords; instrumentation and thermocouple cable; lead and high temperature cable; medium voltage cable, and premise and category wire and cable. HWC also offers private branded products, including its LifeGuard low-smoke, zero-halogen cable. On March 23, 2006, the Company changed its name to Houston Wire & Cable Company and its operating subsidiary, Houston Wire & Cable Company, changed its name to HWC Wire & Cable Company.

FUNDAMENTALS:  With tremendous earnings growth (.01/share in ’03, .23 in ’04, .60 in ’05 and 1.47 last year), it’s easy to be impressed with Houston Wireless.   Throw in large management ownership (50%), many new institutions initiating positions, ROE off the charts and it has all the characteristics of a big time winner.  If there are a couple minor negatives, it’s the net margin which is " just" a respectable 10% and earnings growth estimates for ’07 which is expected to slow considerably over last year.  Not too surprising after the torrid growth of the past few years.

TECHNICAL:  Technically, the quality doesn’t deviate.  After breaking out of a base in mid February, the stock has been bouncing along the 50 day moving average and ultimately carving out what is now a bullish triangle pattern that it looks ready to emerge from with gusto.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 52/60 (27/30 for fundamentals, 25/30 for technical), HWCC is currently one of the highest rated breakout stocks that I track.

Full Disclosure/Disclaimer: The stock of the day is by no means a buy recommendation.  Please do your own research and make a personal decision based on your own tolerance for risk.  I currently do not own a position in Houston Wireless & Cable (HWCC)

Don’t Chase The Market Chop; Energy Stocks Continue to Heat Up

Last week was supposed to provide more of an indication of how steep the correction would be, but all we have now is more uncertainty… both from a technical and fundamental perspective.  Fundamentally, we’re once again going to play the ‘goldilocks’ game where the market will applaud data that is seen as good, but too good.. a bit weak, not too weak.  The market fears the dreaded interest rate hike and cheers any indication from the Fed that rates will not rise any time soon, despite underlying concern.  In my opinion, the big move up after the Fed announcement was temporary jubilee over a less hawkish stance from the Fed which fueled a round of short covering.  The important thing to consider is that massive sell offs (like what we saw on February 27th) aren’t aberrations and do forecast trouble ahead.  While the potential is there for the market to retest its highs, the V shaped bounce we’ve seen is not sustainable.  From a trading perspective I’m not looking get increasingly short unless we  see another day or two of low volume buying.  On the flip side, if last week’s move is retraced with light volume selling I’ll probably look to add a few swing trades for quick profit on the long side.  It just continues to be a very difficult market to read right now with a high degree of volatility.  If you’re not a short term trader, I’ll suggest again you step aside and let this correction play itself out for a couple more weeks.

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

Staying primarily short and in cash obviously didn’t prove to be a profitable strategy during the week, but I made the decision not to play the potential for a bounce after the key reversal on March 14th and remain with the positions I had.  As a result the portfolio was off .6% for the week, dropping the YTD gain to 5.9%.  Just one transaction was made during the week.  I dumped my long position in CYBS for a small loss of 6%.  The stock was submerged below support of the 50 day moving average and sell volume was overshadowing buy volume.  At this point my strategy is to remain somewhat stationary until the market can provide a few more clues as to the severity of this correction.  If we get a few days of light volume selling, I’ll be tempted to initiate a long or two to get the portfolio more balanced.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration: 8.15%
2. Industrial Metals & Minerals: 6.90%
3. Independent Oil & Gas: 6.85%
4. Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: 6.55%
5. Long Distance Carrier: 6.40%
6. Steel & Iron: 6.20%
7. Trucking:  6.15%
8. Nonmetallic Mineral & Mining: 6.05%
9. Metal Fabrication: 6.00%
10. Major Integrated Oil & Gas: 5.90%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. CATV Systems: -5.10%
2. Printed Circuit Boards: -3.85%
3. Drug Stores: -1.90%
4. Processing Systems & Products: -1.35%
5. Tobacco Products – Other: -.20%
6. Semiconductor – Broadline: .30%
7. Marketing Services: .65%
8. Copper: .70%
9. Toy & Hobby Stores: .90%
10. Cigarettes: .90%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
 
1. India Fund (IFN)  9.70%
2. Central Europe & Russia Fund (CEE) 9.05%
3. Morgan Stanley India (IIF) 9.00%
4. Turkish Invest Fund (TKF) 9.00%
5. Ishares South Africa (EZA) 8.85%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Templeton Dragon Fund (TDF)  -1.80%
2. HLDRS Broadband (BDH) -1.70%
3. Ishares Silver (SLV) .20%
4. Central Fund of Canada (CEF) .55%
5. Ishares Networking (IGN) .75%

:::  IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1.  Super Micro Computer (SMCI): designer of application-optimized, high-performance server products that are based on modular and open-standard x86 architecture.  Super Micro is a rapidly growing and profitable company.  Trading set to start on Thursday.

2.  eTelecare Global Solutions (ETEL):  based in Quezon City, the Philippines, is a provider of business process outsourcing, or BPO, services. The company offers services, such as technical support, financial advisory services, warranty support, customer service, sales, customer retention and marketing surveys, and research. Among the company’s clients are American Express Co., AOL, Cingular Wireless, Dell, Intuit, Sprint Nextel, and Vonage Holdings. Trading set to start on Wednesday.

3. GSI Technology (GSIT): provider of "very fast" static random access memory products used in high-performance networking and telecommunications equipment, such as routers, switches, wide area network infrastructure equipment, wireless base stations, and network access equipment.  Trading set to start on Thursday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (3/26/2007- 3/30/2007) :::

Monday:        New Home Sales
Tuesday:       Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:  Durable Orders, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, GDP Final
Friday:           Personal Income

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

No Notable Earnings for This Week

::: Latest Blog Entries – In Case You Missed Them! :::

– SelfInvestors Blog –

1. After Market Report – Buyers Lack Conviction; Energy Looking Good
http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2007/03/after_market_re.html

2. How Quickly Bears Turn Into Bulls; Stock of the Day – Zumiez (ZUMZ)http://investing.typepad.com/tradingstocks/2007/03/how_quickly_bul.html

Once Again, Fed (Bernanke) Fuel Market; Zumiez (ZUMZ) #1 Teen Retailer

::: Today’s Market Action :::

So the Fed removed "additional firming" in its statement today and traders felt that was enough to put the possibility of a rate hike a bit further on the back burner.  Considering that the Fed still remains concerned about inflation I was surprised by today’s big move up (undoubtedly fueled by short covering).   There’s some chatter out there that the correction is over and bulls are set to run again.  Moves like this can create that kind of irrational euphoria.  While this move sets up the potential for a run to fill the gap in the Nasdaq and "potentially" test the highs in the S&P and Dow, I strongly disagree that the indices are going to clear V like bases and head to new highs anytime soon.  There is significant technical damage to work through yet.  Obviously, my bias to the short side hasn’t played out well over the past couple days, but I’m not about to panic here and abandon my positions.  Remember that the knee jerk reaction to the Fed can often be thrown out the window.  What’s important is how the market reacts tomorrow and Friday once traders have had time to analyze the statement and make decisions about their positions.

In the chart of the Nasdaq below you can see today’s surge above resistance of the 50 day moving average.  It may have enough momentum to fill the gap left by the big sell off on Feb 27th, but I don’t think it gets that far.  Following the key reversal, the move up has come with volume considerably less than during the sell off.  I still feel that at some point the Nasdaq will at least come close to testing the lows of that reversal day and possibly the 200 day moving average before it’s all said and done.  Look for a continuation of the momentum tomorrow morning, but the key will be how we close tomorrow. 

The S&P is the strongest of the major indices and made a meaningful move above resistance of the 50 day moving average today.  While much of today’s move was likely short covering, volume levels were significant enough to call the action an accumulation day (institutional buying).  That’s a real sharp move off the bottom but the next level of resistance is at previous February highs.  It could test this level.  Keep the big picture in mind though – sell volume overshadows buy volume by a significant margin.

The Dow did not clear resistance of the 50 day moving average today.  It too could run up a bit more, but the underlying trend still remains bearish.  Before today’s move, the buy volume has been anemic. 

Overall, based on the technical action of the past few weeks, it’s highly possible that the key reversal on March 14th marked a bottom (or close to) for this correction.  What I want to see now before getting into a few more long positions is sell volume dry up on a pull back following this 6 day run.  If the market  runs up again tomorrow and the volume isn’t there, it would be an ideal time to put on another short or two. 

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day March 21st 2007

Nasdaq: UP 1.98% today with volume 9% ABOVE  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.93%, volume 31% ABOVE average
Dow: UP 1.30%, volume 12% ABOVE the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP 1.20%, volume 2% ABOVE the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP 1.65%, volume 69% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP  1.90%, volume 30% ABOVE the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks performed about in line with the rest of the market today but volume continues to lag in the advancers.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 389 to 44.
* Advancers were up an average of 2.27% today, with volume 3% BELOW average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.38% with volume 73% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP  1.90% today with volume 4% ABOVE the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Utilities, Bonds, Consumer Services, Energy

* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Biotech, Home Builders, Agriculture

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Home Builders, Broker/Dealers, Software, Financial, Internet

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
None

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  Today’s stock is a top retailer that recently gapped up out of a long base to a new all time high – Zumiez (ZUMZ)

ABOUT:  Zumiez Inc. (Zumiez) is a mall-based specialty retailer of action sports-related apparel, footwear, equipment and accessories operating under the Zumiez brand name. As of January 28, 2006, the Company operated 174 stores primarily located in shopping malls, giving it a presence in 19 states. Zumiez stores cater to young men and women between the ages of 12 and 24 who seek brands representing a lifestyle centered on activities that include skateboarding, surfing, snowboarding, bicycle motocross and motocross. It supports the action sports lifestyle and promotes its brand through a multi-faceted marketing approach that is designed to integrate its brand image with its customers’ activities and interests. In addition, Zumiez operates a Website, which sells merchandize online and provides content and a community for its target customers.

FUNDAMENTALS:  Zumiez is a company that for years remained stagnant, but now is the fastest growing teen retailer around.  Capitalizing on snowboard and skateboard apparel, it really began to ramp up growth in the middle of 2005 and hasn’t looked back.  Year over year earnings have increased about 55% over the past couple years and while expected to slow a bit, earnings are expected (according to analysts) to remain strong at around 30 – 35% over the next couple years.  Its profit margins are just average for its industry, but ROE is outstanding (23%) and continues to rise indicating strong management. 

TECHNICAL:  Technically, the stock recently cleared a new all time high after gapping up out of a long base.  It doesn’t get any more bullish than that!  Volume levels over the past few months indicate  tremendous demand for the stock.   With no overhead resistance in sight, the sky is the limit for Zumiez.  If there is one negative in the chart, it’s the magnitude of the decline in the base, dropping from a high of 38.85 to a low of 20 (nearly a 50% drop).  Typically, you don’t want the base to be deeper than about a 35% correction.  What this probably means is that the stock will need to spend some time going sideways from here.  It’s a bit extended now, but may offer a great opportunity on a retest of the 50 day moving average.

SELFINVESTORS RATING: With a total score of 52/60 (27/30 for fundamentals, 25/30 for technical), ZUMZ is a high quality break out  stock.

Full Disclosure/Disclaimer: The stock of the day is by no means a buy recommendation.  Please do your own research and make a personal decision based on your own tolerance for risk.  I currently do not own a position in Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Buyers Lacking Conviction; Energy Stocks Emerging

::: Today’s Market Action :::

Merger activity was a major catalyst in propelling the market higher at the end of ’06 and into ’07 and that was the case today as well.  On the surface (looking at price performance alone) it appeared to be a big day for the bulls and may have even lured in a few unsuspecting traders, thinking that the correction might be over.  One look at the volume, however, indicated there was absolutely no conviction on the part of buyers today.  Most traders are clearly waiting for tomorrow’s housing data, the Fed decision on Wednesday and are wary of current market conditions.  While technical conditions have improved some since the massive sell off on Feb 27th, it still remains a risky proposition to get aggressive on the long side.  A day or two more like we had today and I’ll be tempted to add a few more shorts.

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
Data as of 4:00EST – End of Day March 19th 2007

Nasdaq: UP .92% today with volume 16% BELOW  average
Nasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.03%, volume 28% BELOW average
Dow: UP .90%, volume 15% BELOW the average
Dow ETF (DIA): UP 1.02%, volume 29% BELOW the average
S&P ETF (SPY): UP 1.21%, volume 6% ABOVE the average
Russell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP  1.13%, volume 5% BELOW the average

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  Leading stocks did well today, beating the performance of all major indices with volume a bit above average.  However, volume in stocks that were down today was significantly higher than up stocks.

Summary:

* Advancers led Decliners 353 to 80.
* Advancers were up an average of 1.93% today, with volume 8% BELOW average
* Decliners were down an average of 1.42% with volume 66% ABOVE average
* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP  1.31% today with volume 5% ABOVE  the average

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for guaging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector/industry strength please see the following post: http://selfinvestors.com/industry_tracking/

* Current Leading Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Utilities, Bonds, Energy
                                              
* Current Lagging Sectors/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
Biotech, Internet Infrastructure, Home Builders, Agriculture

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (UP):
Oil & Gas Services, Energy, Biotech, Software, Gold, Health Care

* Today’s Market Moving Industries/Sectors (DOWN):
None

::: Stocks :::

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation. 

Sorry, no interesting candidates for Stock of the Day today.  Vimpel Communications (VIP) made a nice move today and looks interesting but it’s a short base and needs to go sideways for a bit before I’ll get interested.