Bulls/Bears Battle Resistance; Hot IPO – Lululemon Athletica (LULU) | SelfInvestors

Following last weeks breakout move of the market, there were all kinds of earnings reports, economic data and fed speak to sway the market big either way. I was looking for some kind of confirmation of the breakout move (ie. a convincing move above Dow 14,000 and all time highs of the S&P around 1555), especially considering that the breakout move itself was suspicious, occurring with lackluster volume. Outside of some good ‘ol fashioned jubilee on CNBC when the Dow closed a hair above 14000, the bulls weren’t strapping on the party hats this week. With the exception of the move on Friday, it was for the most part, a stalemate (despite some big intraday swings) and I still await a confirmation move.. I think that move may have to wait awhile. The downside momentum on Friday sets up a test of new support levels in the indices and probably more volatile sideways action.

For the week, I’m calling the action just a bit bearish based on Friday’s move (volume as skewed higher due to double witching). Over the next few weeks I’m straddling neutrality..

::: Model Portfolio Update :::

I didn’t do a whole lot with the Model Portfolio this week which is fairly typical during earnings season because I rarely hold a stock through the earnings report. This eliminates many opportunities from consideration in the coming weeks. One company I do hold through earnings season is Google which I have been building a position in for some time and it represents the backbone of the portfolio. Needless to say, I took a bit of a hit after the earnings miss, but as I wrote up over at the blog, I’m satisfied enough with the earnings report and believe the miss was an aberration due to one time costs associated with over hiring and a modification of accounting. I’m holding on and may add to my position in the coming weeks. I didn’t hold on with NVEC and dumped the position ahead of earnings for a 12% gain which saved me from further earnings report damage. Also closed during the week were small positions in HANS (-4%) and AMZN (+1). Both stocks look OK, but have stalled out for the time being and probably need more time to base. With earnings coming up, the right thing to do was get out and wait for better entries. On the addition side, two new Quick Strike Profit plays were added. For the week, the portfolio took a 3% hit bringing the YTD performance to 5.3%. Obviously, I’ve got my work cut out for me if I’m going to whoop the S&P again this year. I’m up for the challenge!

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Manufactured Housing: 8.45%
2. Data Storage Devices: 4.50%
3. Semiconductor – Equipment & Materials: 4.40%
4. Railroads: 3.85%
5. Diversified Computer Systems: 3.45%
6. Medical Appliances & Equipment: 3.35%
7. Gold: 3.15%
8. Home Furnishing Stores: 2.90%
9. Application Software: 2.85%
10. Specialty Chemicals: 2.80%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Recreational Goods: -8.30%
2. Drug Delivery: -8.10%
3. Investment Brokerage National: -6.65%
4. Residential Construction: -6.50%
5. Toy & Hobby Stores: -6.30%
6. Long Distance Carriers: -5.70%
7. Sporting Goods: -5.70%
8. Internet Info Providers: -5.30%
9. REIT – Healthcare Facilities: -5.20%
10. Surety & Title Insurance: -5.00%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –

1. Indonesia (IF) 23.00%
2. Gold Miners (GDX) 4.20%
3. Turkish Investment Fund (TKF) 4.20%
4. HLDRS Internet Architecture (IAH) 2.85%
5. Ishares Oil Equipment & Services (IEZ) 2.80%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. Japan Small Cap (JOF) -5.25%
2. Ishares Broker Dealer (IAI) -5.20%
3. Proshares Agriculture (4.30) -4.30%
4. Ishares Home Construction (ITB) -4.20%
5. US Natural Gas (UNG) -4.15%

::: IPO’s Worth Watching for This Week :::

1. Lululemon Athletica (LULU): The company designs and sells lululemon athletica and oqoqo branded apparel for the athletically hip in nearly 60 franchised and company-owned stores. lululemon athletica specializes in women’s clothing designed for yoga, dance, and running, and is expanding its accessories, undergarments, and outerwear lines and growing its men’s business. Nearly three-quarters of its shops are in Canada, with some 15 in the US, three in Japan, and one in Australia. Third-party, mostly Taiwanese, vendors manufacture its apparel, which is distributed from facilities in Vancouver and Washington. The company is growing quickly and profitable making it the hot IPO of the week! Trading set to begin on Friday.

2. Perfect World (PWRD): Perfect World offers multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) to the masses. Popular titles include Perfect World, Legend of Martial Arts, Perfect World II, and Zhu Xian. With Perfect World, the company generates revenue using a time-based revenue model; players are charged based on the time they spend playing the game. The remaining games derive revenue based on an item-based model; players play games for free but pay for in-game item purchases (such as performance-enhancing products, clothing, and related accessories). Trading set to begin on Thursday.

3. Rex Energy (REXX): The oil and gas exploration and production company has estimated proved reserves of 14.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, primarily from three regions: the Illinois Basin (in Illinois and Indiana); the Appalachian Basin (Pennsylvania and West Virginia); and the southwestern US (New Mexico and Texas). The company’s Lawrence Field ASP (alkaline-surfactant-polymer) Flood Project utilizes ASP technology, which washes residual oil from reservoir rock, thereby improving the existing waterflow’s ability to sweep the residual oil and increasing ultimate oil recoveries. Trading set to begin on Wednesday.

4. Voltaire (VOLT): The company designs and develops server and storage switching hardware and software for high-performance grid computing. Voltaire’s products allow end customers to manage the growth of their data center’s through scalable high performance switching hardware and dynamic management and provisioning software. Outsourcing the manufacturing work, Voltaire relies on its two contract manufacturers to churn out its switching components. The company also relies on server original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to incorporate the Voltaire Grid Backbone into their products as its primary sales channel. Trading set to begin on Thursday.

5. BladeLogic (BLOG): The company offers data center automation software to clients such as General Electric, Microsoft, priceline.com, and Sprint. BladeLogic also offers a variety of professional services including consulting, support, training, installation, and maintenance. Trading set to begin on Wednesday.

6. Monotype Imaging Holdings (TYPE): The company’s software offers scaling, compression, and lay out programs for formatting text on laser printers, digital copiers, mobile phones, digital televisions, and digital cameras. It allows customers to access more than 9,000 typefaces. Monotype also licenses its fonts on four Web sites frequented by creative and business users though most of its revenue comes from OEM sales. Major customers include Nokia, JVC, Sony, Hewlett-Packard, and Microsoft. Trading set to begin on Wednesday.

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (7/23/07 – 7/27/07) :::

Monday:        None
Tuesday:       None
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, Crude Inventories, Fed Beige Book
Thursday:      Durable Orders, Initial Claims, New Home Sales
Friday:           GDP (adv), Chain Deflator (adv), Mich. Sentiment (rev)

::: Notable Upcoming Earnings Reports I’ll Be Watching This Week :::

Monday:

Woodward Governor (WGOV), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Atheros Communications (ATHR), Grupo Aeroportuario Del Paci (PAC)

Tuesday:

Smith International (SII), Robert Half (RHI), Legg Mason (LM), Jacobs Engineering (JEC), Complete Production Services (CPX), Ladish (LDSH), Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA), ENSCO Intl (ESV), Ceradyne (CRDN), Burlington Northern (BNI), Cerner (CERN), New Oriental Education (EDU), EMC (EMC), America Movil (AMX), Homex
Development (HXM), Lam Research (LRCX), Double Take (DBTK), Precision Castparts (PCP), Anixter International (AXE), Phase Forward (PFWD), Chicago Mercantile (CME), Vocus (VOCS), Paccar (PCAR)

Wednesday:

Apple (AAPL), Lifecell (LIFC), National Oilwell (NOV), Alcon (ACL), Grant Prideco (GRP), F5 Networks (FFIV), Core Laboratories (CLB), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Akamai (AKAM), Baidu.com (BIDU), Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Mellanox Technologies (MLNX), RPC (RES)

Thursday:

Rediff.com (REDF), VASCO Data Security (VDSI), Falconstor Software (FALC), The Ultimate Software Group (ULTI), Celgene (CELG), Strayer Education (STRA), Stericycle (SRCL), Diamond Offshore (DO), Comcast (CMCSA), W-H Energy Services (WHQ), NII Holdings (NIHD), Tidewater (TDW), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Franklin Resources (BEN), Life Time Fitness (LTM), LKQ Corp (LKQX), Netgear (NTGR), Riverbed Technology (RVBD)

Friday:

Baker Hughes (BHI)

::: In Case You Missed It – SelfInvestors Blog Entries of the Past Week :::

1. Trade of the Day – Tucows (TCX), Breakout to New Multi Year Highs
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/stock-trade-of-the-day/trade-of-the-day-tucows-tcx-breakout-to-new-multi-year-highs/

2. Trade of the Day – Iconix Brand Group (ICON) Attempts Cup With Handle Breakout
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/stock-trade-of-the-day/trade-of-the-day-iconix-brand-group-icon-attempts-cup-with-handle-breakout/

3. Sunpower (SPWR) & NVE Corp (NVEC) Dive After Earnings But Still Have Support
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/company-earnings/sunpower-spwr-nve-corp-nvec-dive-after-earnings-but-still-have-support/

4. Google (GOOG) Reports Earnings After Bell, Holding Again
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/company-earnings/google-goog-reports-earnings-after-bell-holding-again/

5. Trade of the Day – Cup with Handle Breakout in PRG Schultz (PRGX)
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/stock-trade-of-the-day/trade-of-the-day-cup-with-handle-breakout-in-prg-schultz-prgx/

6. Google (GOOG) Sell Off Offers Opportunity; Strong Technical Support at 500
https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/company-earnings/google/google-goog-sell-off-offers-opportunity-strong-technical-support-at-500/

7. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Soars; Google (GOOG) & Caterpillar (CAT) Hold Up After Earnings https://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/company-earnings/intuitive-surgical-isrg-soars-google-goog-caterpillar-cat-hold-up-after-earnings/