{"id":926,"date":"2008-01-31T22:09:21","date_gmt":"2008-02-01T03:09:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/weeklyafter-stock-market-review-archives\/rate-cut-rollercoaster-jobs-data-awaits\/"},"modified":"2008-01-31T22:09:21","modified_gmt":"2008-02-01T03:09:21","slug":"rate-cut-rollercoaster-jobs-data-awaits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/weeklyafter-stock-market-review-archives\/rate-cut-rollercoaster-jobs-data-awaits\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate Cut Rollercoaster; Jobs Data Awaits"},"content":{"rendered":"

If I were a bear I’d probably bury my cash in a hole (can bears bury things?) and hibernate for 3 months, but I’m neither bear nor bull, choosing to be objective through chart analysis.  Lately..  ‘er should I say for  the past year, that hasn’t been so easy.  There is a reason why I’ve been recommending for the past few months that most investors stay out of this market for now.  Volatility, irrationality, manipulation, rumor, Fed\/government bailouts, blah, blah.. and that thing called a bear market.<\/font><\/p>\n

Today, I thought I was clever.. maybe clever isn’t the word.. but pursuing opportunity in what I thought was sound technical analysis.  It was sound technical analysis, really it was.  Throw that out the window.  Home builders were overbought (up 70 – 80% in 3 weeks!, many were hitting resistance and showing distribution on the daily.  Easy short right?  Wrong.  They defied gravity today and rocketed through the roof with heavy volume, burying me in debris.  I have never. .. Let me repeat. . I have never been as in disbelief as I was watching those builders today.  I know..fed cut.. stimulus package…. how could I short the builders in this environment?  Trusting the technicals usually treats me well, but they won’t always and they didn’t today.  I was reminded of one my rules which I broke today.  Don’t make significant trading decisions on the day of or the day after a Fed announcement.   Tomorrow is a new day.. perhaps a day when the technicals will prevail and I obey my rules.  Discipline, discipline, discipline.<\/font><\/p>\n

For the second day in a row it was a vomit inducing roller coaster ride.  250 point swing yesterday, 400 points today.  Yesterday signaled distribution, today signaled accumulation.  It continues to be difficult to know which way to trade but one thing is for sure.  Anything affected by rate cuts – financials, home builders and gold, have been soaring.  Not much else is working and there continues to be no leadership.  Yes, cash is still the best place to be for most.  Tomorrow could be another wild ride as the market (for some reason) seems to trade big off the unemployment reports.  Strap on the belts and enjoy the show from the sidelines.  Now where did I put that gin and pepto cocktail.<\/p>\n

::: Major Indices Performance – The Numbers :::<\/strong><\/p>\n

(Note: volume averages are based on the average over the past 50 days)
\nData as of 4:00EST – End of Day January 31st  2008<\/p>\n

Nasdaq: UP 1.74% today with volume 19% ABOVE average
\nNasdaq ETF (QQQQ) UP 1.71%, volume 41% ABOVE average
\nDow: UP 1.67%, with volume 25% ABOVE the average
\nDow ETF (DIA): UP 1.79%, with volume 62% ABOVE the average
\nS&P ETF (SPY): UP 1.82%,  with volume 48% ABOVE the average
\nRussell Small Cap ETF (IWM): UP 2.48%, with volume 20% ABOVE the average<\/p>\n

::: SelflInvestors Leading Stocks :::<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Self Investors Leading Stocks Index is comprised of stocks in the Breakout Tracker, which is a database of the fastest growing companies near a breakout or having already broken out of a base.  With beaten down stocks leading the way in this bear market rally, leading stocks didn’t fare all that well today, significantly lagging the general market<\/p>\n

Summary:<\/p>\n

* Advancers led Decliners 187 to 69
\n* Advancers were up an average of 2.79% today, with volume 24% ABOVE average
\n* Decliners were down an average of 2.51% with volume 68% above the average
\n* The total SI Leading Stocks Index was UP 1.36% today with volume 35% ABOVE average<\/p>\n

::: Where’s the Money Flowing :::<\/strong><\/p>\n

Many investing websites provide leading industries based on price performance alone. However, without accompanying volume levels, this can sometimes be misleading.  The only way that I know of to gauge industry\/sector strength WITH volume levels is through the analysis of ETF’s.  A couple years ago this was not possible, but as more traders\/investors use ETF’s they become a much better tool for gauging the health of the market and seeing where the money is flowing (or not flowing).  Using the proprietary SelfInvestors Demand Indicator score which measures price and volume movements, I’m able to quickly see which sectors\/industries are seeing the greatest inflows of cash.  For a detailed look at how I go about gauging sector\/industry strength please see the following post: http:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/si\/industry_tracking\/<\/a><\/p>\n

* Current Leading Sectors\/Industries (over last 30 trading days):  
\nAgriculture, Gold Miners, Commodities, Gold, Bonds
\n                                          
\n* Current Lagging Sectors\/Industries (over last 30 trading days): 
\nEnergy, Utilities, Aerospace\/Defense, Broadband, Clean Energy<\/p>\n

* Today’s Market Moving Industries\/Sectors (UP):
\nHomebuilders, Retail, Cosumer Discretionary, Financial<\/p>\n

* Today’s Market Moving Industries\/Sectors (DOWN):
\nOil Services, Energy<\/p>\n

::: Stocks :::<\/strong><\/p>\n

The stocks section will be an area where I highlight one stock selected from a group of stocks moving up with volume well above average and most likely breaking out of a base or consolidation.  There just aren’t many (should say any) leading stocks breaking out to new highs or on the verge of doing so, but here’s a short list of leading stocks that moved up with volume today and are above both moving averages.  <\/p>\n

In order of fundamental rank:<\/p>\n

Mastercard (MA)
\nCyberSource (CYBS)
\nHelmerich & Payne (HP)
\nAllergan (AGN)
\nInvestment Technology (ITG)
\nGreen Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)
\nGreif (GEF)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If I were a bear I’d probably bury my cash in a hole (can bears bury things?) and hibernate for 3 months, but I’m neither bear nor bull, choosing to be objective through chart analysis.  Lately..  ‘er should I say for  the past year, that hasn’t been so easy.  There is a reason why I’ve … Continue reading Rate Cut Rollercoaster; Jobs Data Awaits<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weeklyafter-stock-market-review-archives"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/926\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}