{"id":1714,"date":"2010-09-30T11:43:08","date_gmt":"2010-09-30T16:43:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/goldsilver\/gold-gld-correction-is-near\/"},"modified":"2010-09-30T11:43:08","modified_gmt":"2010-09-30T16:43:08","slug":"gold-gld-correction-is-near","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/goldsilver\/gold-gld-correction-is-near\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold (GLD) Correction Is Near"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gold continues to run up nearly every day, enticing a growing number of johnny come lately\u2019s to join the party.&#160; You\u2019ve seen the headlines.. Gold $2000, $4000\/oz.&#160; Could we see those kinds of numbers?&#160; Maybe, but analysts that make those kinds of predictions are just looking to create publicity for themselves and publishers looking for a good headline.&#160; <\/p>\n<p>I like to take a different approach and analyze it from a supply\/demand angle using technical analysis.&#160; Late last year was my last <a href=\"http:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/goldsilver\/final-run-before-major-top-in-gold-price-by-early-2010-spdr-gold-etf-gld\/\">detailed analysis of gold<\/a> and I predicted that a top in gold could come at the 1200 \u2013 1300 level. <\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cWhat I see happening is some kind of climactic run in gold over the course of a few months with&#160; gains of 20 \u2013 30%.&#160; That\u2019s not a number pulled out of a hat, but based on previous runs from previous bases.&#160; Notice how the farther up you get into the rally, the returns diminish as the base quality deteriorates.&#160; Take a look at any big move in a stock and you\u2019ll see this similar pattern.&#160; It\u2019s reasonable to assume that the returns from this breakout will be less than what we saw with the 2007 breakout.. so somewhere around 20 \u2013 30%.&#160; If the price of gold gets into that 1200 \u2013 1300\/oz area I\u2019d be looking for some major topping action!&#160; A climax run in gold over the next few months followed by massive selling on the part of institutions may be the end of a nearly 10 year bull run in gold.\u201d<\/em>&#160; <\/p>\n<p> I expected gold would reach that level a bit earlier than it has, but we\u2019re darn close to 1300 which happens to the next big level of resistance for gold and an area where a correction will likely take place.&#160; It\u2019s much too soon to call $1300 a major top in gold and we could certainly take out $1300 at some point, but now is no time to be adding to gold and for many not a bad place to take some profits off the table.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at the current chart of the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD).&#160; Two important aspects of the chart to point out.&#160; One is the fact that GLD is overbought on the weekly&#160; chart once again.&#160; Take a look and see what happened to GLD the last four times we hit overbought on the weekly chart.&#160; The first time it led to a major correction of 30% in 2008 and three minor corrections since.&#160; We\u2019re overbought again up around the 1300 level and it\u2019s not out of the realm of possibility to see another 30% correction to test the bottom of the channel around 95 \u2013 100.&#160; The second important component of this chart is that the 130 level coincides with resistance at the top of the channel (purple line)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/info\/196\/CD3587\/quotes.ino.com%252Fanalysis%252Ftrend%252F%3Fsymb=PACF_GLD\">===&gt; You can get a free daily technical analysis of GLD here<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/gold_gld_9302010.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px\" title=\"gold_gld_9302010\" border=\"0\" alt=\"gold_gld_9302010\" src=\"http:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/gold_gld_9302010_thumb.png\" width=\"444\" height=\"484\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold continues to run up nearly every day, enticing a growing number of johnny come lately\u2019s to join the party.&#160; You\u2019ve seen the headlines.. Gold $2000, $4000\/oz.&#160; Could we see those kinds of numbers?&#160; Maybe, but analysts that make those kinds of predictions are just looking to create publicity for themselves and publishers looking for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/goldsilver\/gold-gld-correction-is-near\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Gold (GLD) Correction Is Near<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-goldsilver"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1714\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/selfinvestors.com\/tradingstocks\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}