Rally Continues To Tire As Nasdaq Hits 200 Day Moving Average

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Week after week, it’s the same story.. market continues to push forward as the rally continues to show it’s beginning to crack with subtle clues. Although on Thursday the market revealed the most glaring indication yet that this rally will soon take a breather.  The Nasdaq hit its 200 day moving average right around 1750 and ultimately turned tail and reversed to the downside with heavier volume than the day before.  That is a failure at a major resistance level in a bear market.  I don’t think I need to say anymore .. but I will.  1750 also happens to be another major source of resistance of the 2004 low.  I know, some of you might be saying (especially if your Larry Kudlow) that the great banking crisis is over, possibly even an aberration.  Less than two months ago, the world was coming to an end and now all of sudden we’re out of the woods and into a bull market, heading to 10,000.  Ok, I know most of my readers don’t believe that but CNBC would certainly have you believe it.  I like to think that we’re somewhere in the middle. Yes, we quite possibly averted a major disaster in the economy, but I also don’t think you get a V shaped recovery in an economy that takes a mammoth hit to the jaw. 

To this day I remember several analysts on CNBC recommending to the millions to short the heck out of this market when we were at the absolute lows and down 50% in a year (I wish I could remember their names).  Now it’s  the other way around.  This is a bull market and you don’t want to be left behind.  I wont deny the current strength of this bear market rally and will continue to trade in the very short term, but I’m also initiating longer term short opportunities as this market pushes higher, showing cracks along the way. 

For next week keep an eye on the 1750 level in the Nasdaq for resistance and the 1665ish level for 1st support area.  A hold at 1665 would be tremendously bullish, but I think we’ll pull back to at least the 1600 level in the next few weeks. 



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::: Best/Worst Performers :::

– Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Housewares & Accessories: 15.80%
2. Hospitals: 14.65%
3. Computers Wholesale: 12.00%
4. Medical Practitioners: 11.05%
5. Scientific & Technical Instruments:  10.25%
6. Computer Based Systems: 10.10%
7. Advertising Agencies: 9.05%
8. Internet Service Providers: 8.95%
9. CATV Systems: 8.40%
10. Shipping: 8.20%

– Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week –

1. Toy & Hobby Stores: -27.00%
2. Major Airlines: -13.40%
3. REIT – Residential: -8.60%
4. Banks – Pacific: -8.05%
5. Banks – SE: -7.85%
6. REIT – Office: -7.15%
7. Restaurants: -6.25%
8. Residential Construction: -6.10%
9. REIT – Retail: -5.85%
10. Drugs – Generic: -5.65%

– Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week –
(excluding leveraged ETFs)

1. Market Vectors Coal (KOL) 12.50%
2. iShares Taiwan (EWT) 12.45%
3. HLDRS Internet Infrastructure (IIH) 11.10%
4. Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) 10.90%
5. Turkish Investment Fund (TKF) 9.85%

– Worst 5 Performing ETF’s –

1. HLDRS Regional Banks (RKH): -6.60%
2. SPDR Series Trust (KBE) -6.10%
3. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) -4.65%
4. iShares Realty (ICF) -4.65%
5. SPDR Regional Banking (KRE) -4.40%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (5/4/2009- 5/8/2009) :::

Monday:        Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales
Tuesday:       ISM Services
Wednesday:  ADP Employment, Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Bank Stress Test Results, Productivity, Initial Claims, Consumer Credit
Friday:           Nonfarm Payrolls, Wholesale Inventories

::: Earnings I’m Watching This Week :::

Monday: Calgon Carbon (CCC), Changyou.com (CYOU), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), FMC Corp (FMC), The Hospitalist (IPCM), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), Netsuite (N), Sohu.com (SOHU)

Tuesday: Big Band Networks (BBND), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Iconix Brands (ICON), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Riskmetrics (RMG), Shenandoah Telecommunications (SHEN), True Religion (TRLG), Ultra Petroleum (UPL),

Wednesday: Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Career Education (CECO), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Clean Harbors (CLH), EnerNoc (ENOC), MercadoLibre (MELI), NVE Corp (NVEC), Transocean (RIG)

Thursday: Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI), American Public Education (APEI), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Constant Contact (CTCT), Energy Recovery (ERII), Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS), Intrepid Potash (IPI), PowerSecure (POWR), RRSAT Global (RRST), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Thoratec (THOR),  Tower Group (TWGP),

Friday: Calpine (CPN), Petrobras (PBR), Toyota (TM),

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Comments on Rally Continues To Tire As Nasdaq Hits 200 Day Moving Average »

May 12, 2009

D. Sanchez @ 5:28 pm

Bailout 2008, a poem by David Jeffrey:

Like a bloodied warrior,
laying broken and torn.

Like a dying soldier, hopeless and forlorn.

But the blood, it be green,
the color of money.

And the soldier is an economy,
and it is anything but funny.

Broken are it’s people and shattered are their dreams.

Thanks to the ultra rich and their full proof schemes.

It is a tragedy with more pain to come.

Finance will be Hell, and their wills will be done.

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