Jun
08
2006
Saved By the Bull - Convincing Reversal
Jun
08
2006
While the S&P finally broke down below the 200 DMA, it still had support of its trend line which it bounced off of in convincing fashion today. I didn't go back and research volume levels for the S&P tonight, but no question it was up near a record as well. One negative is the fact that it did not reclaim support of the 200 day moving average. It would not at all surpise me to see the S&P retest that trend line at some point in the coming weeks. You'd like to see that happen with declining sell volume.
The Dow broke through its 200 day moving average today too, but it was able to reclaim that support level. Volume wasn't quite as good in the Dow, but impressive action nonetheless. It still has support of its trend line off the October '05 lows around 10,500. There certainly is a good possibility of testing that level before the summer is over.
So where to go from here? I personally took profits in short positions today and dabbled in a couple long plays in my personal accounts when it was clear the reversal was taking shape. This volatility has certainly created many opportunities for those getting in and out in a few days time, but those kinds of opportunities are better geared towards the trader who's able to track the markets all day. For most investors (who aren't able to keep close tabs on the market during the day), the best option is to remain largely in cash while the market gyrates back and forth finding a bottom. You'll save yourself the stress and probably quite a bit of money by continuing to be patient. From here, we most likely see a continuation of the springboard action we saw today for a day or two, but it should come back and possibly retest the lows. At this point, a big long signal would occur on some kind of confirmation day (a 2% move up with heavy volume).




Leave a comment