Gold & Silver Breaking Out?: Leverage with Double Long Gold ETN (DGP)

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader

The following is analysis provided by TheCorrectCall.com exclusive to readers of SelfInvestors.  I completely agree with this analysis.  Breaking of bullish wedge formations/downtrends are taking place in the Gold & Silver ETFs.  Great post!

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

In our daily screens of stock charts exhibiting positive and negative MACD crossovers, The Correct Call recognized a trend too large to ignore. Our heads turned when we saw at least 25% of the upside candidates were Gold/Silver stocks and ETFs. As we have noted many times before, we are big believers in confirmation. When we see a disproportionate number of companies in the same sector all presenting the same "buy signal", we feel it is safe to say something is happening.

In these turbulent times it nice to find some water in the desert.

Investors worried about mounting losses can possibly stem the tide by adding Gold to their portfolio. According to a study titled "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold" by Dirk G. Baur and Brian M. Lucey, gold is an "ideal venue to park money during periods of uncertainty." Their analysis found that in the US, Gold and stock returns are negatively correlated and that Gold acts as a hedge at all times. That means when stocks go down, Gold usually goes up.

That's good news for investors.

All of the Gold/Silver stock & ETF charts we reviewed look this iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU). Each has roughly a 6 week narrow trading range with yesterday's MACD breakout.

IAU-positive-macd-crossover

Conservative investors should buy IAU, streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) or iShares Silver Trust (SLV).

More aggressive investors might consider owning individual stocks or DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP). DGP's objective is to give its owners twice the return of Gold's price changes. That means if Gold moves up 5%, investors can expect see a return of 10%.

The precious metal stocks with charts pointing the way up include:

    Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) Apollo Gold Corp. (AGT) Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

If we have made The Correct Call, we would expect investors to profit by 10% or more in the next 3-to-6 months owning Gold/Silver stocks and ETFs. (double that for DGP.)

Due for a Rally, But Bears Still In Control

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader

I'm gonna keep it real short this week and stick to the meat and potatoes of the technicals.  After all, it is Father's Day and the US Open is winding down.. :)   Hope you're all enjoying a little BBQ.  The market continued to deteriorate last week with distribution still going on, but this market is due for some kind of short term oversold bounce as indicated by stochastics.  Of course no indicator is perfect by itself and stochastics can remain in oversold territory for quite awhile, but the odds are there for a bit of a spike next week.  However, bears are still in control and outside of some short term trading opportunities on the long side, it's probably best for most people to sit on the sidelines for a bit longer.  Keep an eye out for a rally in the indices to test resistance levels (Nasdaq - 200dma, Dow and S&P - 50 day moving averages). 

61508_nasdaq

61508_sp500

61508_dow

 

::: Model Portfolio :::

** This section will now appear as a separate report about every other Wednesday. 

The Self Investors Model Portolio wrapped up 2007 with a 30.2% gain and features annualized returns of 24%.  This is a REAL portfolio with position sizing and NOT the "hypothetical" portfolios you see with many stock trading services.

Would you like to receive buy and sell alerts within minutes (NEW! now get them via instant messaging in near real time) of each transaction in the portfolio?  You can receive these along with ALL of the tracking tools and video reports with the very popular Gold membership.  Don't delay, get started today and join me for many more highly profitable months here at SelfInvestors.com.

::: Best/Worst Performers :::

- Top 10 Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Investment Brokerage: 5.35%
2. Major Airlines: 4.45%
3. Regional Airlines: 4.35%
4. Home Improvement Stores: 3.95%
5. Investment Brokerage: 3.90%
6. Appliances: 3.80%
7. Electronic Stores:  3.80%
8. Education & Training Services: 3.75%
9. Machine Tools & Accessories: 3.75%
10. Security Software & Services: 3.70%

- Top 10 Worst Performing Industries For the Week -

1. Beverages - Soft Drinks: -4.75%
2. Banks - Midwest: -1.75%
3. Farm Products: -1.55%
4. Banks - SE: -1.50%
5. Meat Products: -1.40%
6. Medical Practitioners: -1.35%
7. Beverages- Brewers: -.95%
8. Banks - Pacific: -.85%
9. Banks - Mid Atlantic: -.85%
10. Cigarettes: -.60%

- Top 5 Best Performing ETFs For the Week -

1. Ishares Broker/Dealers (IAI) 5.70% 
2. Japan Small Cap (JOF) 5.60%
3. SPDR  Metals & Mining (XME) 3.70%
4. Ishares Home Construction (ITB) 3.35%
5. HLDRS Semis (SMH) 3.30%

- Worst 5 Performing ETF's -

1. KBW Banking (KRE) -1.90%
2. US Oil Fund (USO) -1.90%
3. Asa Limited Gold (ASA) -1.70%
4. US Natural Gas (UNG)  -1.30%
5. iShares Commodities (GSG) -1.20%

::: Upcoming Economic Reports (6/16/2008- 6/20/2008) :::

Monday:        NY Empire State Index, Net Foreign Purchases
Tuesday:       Building Permits, PPI, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production
Wednesday:  Crude Inventories
Thursday:      Initial Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed
Friday:           None

::: Earnings I'm Watching This Week :::

Monday:
Adobe Systems (ADBE), Lehman Bros (LEH), Titan Machinery (TITN)

Tuesday:
Goldman Sachs (GS)

Wednesday:
Casella Waste Systems (CWST), FedEx (FDX), Lindsay Corp (LNN)

Stock Market Sets Up for Further Declines; Garmin (GRMN) Still Shortable?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader

The following analysis is provided exclusively to readers of SelfInvestors via TheCorrectCall.  Enjoy!

:::::::::

Yesterday's selloff moved the Dow below a fairly major level of support at 12,200. In all likelihood, this violation will lead to more selling in the days ahead. The technical picture sets up almost too perfectly. According to what we see, the next stop is in the vicinity of the March 14th & 17th closing prices of 11,951-11,972.

From there, if our analysis holds to form, the next leg would follow along the angle of decent to converge at the end of the "T" formation; meaning a visit to the March 10 closing low of 11,740 sometime near the end of June-early July.

As you can see on the chart, this all looks too straightforward:

june-12-dow-chart.jpg

A stock that appears to be shortable during this downturn is Garmin, Ltd. (GRMN) which manufactures global positioning system (GPS)-enabled products and other related navigation, communications, and information products worldwide. It operates in four areas: Automotive/Mobile, Outdoor/Fitness, Marine, and Aviation.

The stock was one of Wall Street's darlings for several years until it made a major top in late-2007. Since then GRMN has been a disaster and is off about 60% from its highs. Unfortunately for shareholders, the tough times could continue for quite some time.

There is brutal competition in the industry from the likes of TomTom and Navteq just to name a couple. Recently, Apple showed off navigation features on its iPhone, which lopped a few dollars off of GRMN's stock due to competition fears. These fears might intensify as there is a lot of consolidation going on in the industry.

In late-April, the company said that earnings per share came in at 67 cents, below the consensus estimate of 75 cents. Revenues were also light by about $40 million. It is still up in the air as to whether or not this will be a trend, but most companies that miss like this tend to take longer than a quarter to turn it around.

Over the past two months, this year's earnings estimates have fallen 48 cents to $3.94 per share. Analysts are only expecting single-digit growth for next year as well. The stock is not particularly expensive, but the momentum in both earnings and stock price point to lower prices in the near future. We see the stock testing its 52-low of $39.75 in the next few months.

« Previous PageNext Page »
Close
E-mail It