Stock Charts

growth stock chart analysis

Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Something I’ve talked quite a bit about over the past few years in running this blog is the big advantage of the small guy.. the self investor over the big, laboring elephant that is the institutional investor.  You are the nimble, market ninja able to move to cash quickly by cutting losses quickly on positions and waiting for better investing environments.  The big fella has no such advantage because of the requirements to stay mostly invested and the slow process of unwinding positions and moving into new ones.  Institutions are forced to rely on on the financials of the past and management guesstimates of the future to make million dollar bets.  The problem with this approach is the executives lie or are just flat out wrong AND long before the earnings show deterioration, the stock will have already fallen off a cliff.

Case in point, Satyam Computer (SAY) of India.  Now here’s a company …

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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Satyam Computer at Wikinvest

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Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Just a quick heads up to let you all know what I’m keeping an eye on for tomorrow.  Following that push above the 50 day moving averages in both the S&P and Dow, we have had two days of selling with today’s plunge putting the S&P and Dow back below support of their 50 day moving averages.  The market remains somewhat bullish up here, but it’s critical that we hold the November upward trend line which I’ll be watching on the 30 min charts of the SPY, DIA and Q’s tomorrow.  Below is a look at the 30 minute chart of the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY).  You can see the  trend line that was tested again today with a decent bounce in the last 30 minutes of trading to keep that level of support intact. 

Read Entire Post “Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart” Here

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P Setup For Re-test Of August Low
Nearly 70% Of S&P 500 Stocks In Correction Or Bear Market Territory
S&P Approaches Critical Tipping Point
Market Timing Risk
Read more on Abc Communications, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 (SPX) at Wikinvest

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Synalloy (SYNL) Breaking the Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Synalloy continues to look extremely bullish and has busted out of a triangle formation today with heavy volume.

synalloy synl breakout stock chart triangle

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Is Hansen Natural (HANS) Running Out of Energy?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

Hansen Natural Recent News:

Random Roger » Being John Malkovich-Moment

Posted 2 days ago

A quick note; Do you remember the movie Being John Malkovich, the one where John Cusack and his girlfriend go into Malkovich’s brain? Then along the way John Malkovich goes into his own brain? Yeah, it was a weird movie but it was funny too. The ETF business may be having its own Being John Malkovich-moment with the launch on April 20th of the ETF Industry Exposure & Financial Services ETF which is being sponsored …

Random Roger » Being Disciplined 90% Of The Time Won’t Work

Posted 4 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; A common criticism of indexing is the extent to which the index tilts more and more toward growth as the bull market matures because the growthier, high fliers go on a run of outperformance later in the cycle (this is historically how it has worked). Those are the same types of names that stand to go down a lot, really a lot, during …

Random Roger » “Head-Snapping” Reversals?

Posted 6 days ago

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The 200 day moving average (DMA) is viewed as being a significant technical indicator. Our take on this is that the 200 day moving average is a signal for the health of demand for an asset. When the price is above the 200 DMA, demand can thought of as being healthy regardless of whatever else is going on in the world. Likewise, …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 16, 2017

Posted 7 days ago

Important note – we are doing a survey of our readers which can be found here. If you are new to the site in the past few months our surveys are probably the least taxing of any on the internet; usually 2 or 3 questions so we'd appreciate the few moments it takes to fill one out. Thanks so much! Still no significant movement in the indexes but with moderate losses Wednesday and Thursday, the…

Random Roger » Don’t Let Performance Haunt You Forever

Posted 10 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; A well thought out strategy focuses on longer time periods like an entire stock market cycle with goal of having enough money when it is needed. Someone who retires at 63 with enough money doesn’t say to themselves “while I am glad I have enough, those two quarters in a row that I lagged the market when I was 56 are going to …

Random Roger » Blame It On The Rain

Posted 13 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; In news that harkens back a little over two years ago when the Swiss National Bank depegged the franc versus the euro, the Czech National Bank depegged the koruna from the euro, removing the floor. The cross is quoted as EURCZK so this move allows the euro to drop against CZK if that is where the market takes it which seems likely …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 9, 2017

Posted 14 days ago

2 items of interest before we begin: We will be emailing out a quick reader survey next week; this will be the first time it will be sent in email format and the first reader survey since we've changed to our weekly format. Please take a moment to grade our weekly content, thanks! For those interested in forex trading, ForexBrokers.com (sister site to us here at StockTrader.com and…

Random Roger » Avoiding Groupthink Yield Chasing

Posted 17 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; A few years back, dividend and dividend growth investing dominated the content at Seeking Alpha. Seadrill was one of the favorites of this cohort. It has always been a debt heavy company with decent cash flow and it paid a very high dividend for many years. It ceased paying a dividend in 2014 just as the stock imploded, dropping by 2/3rds in a …

Random Roger » Tips To Install Christmas Lights

Posted 18 days ago

Some of you have time the time to install your own Christmas lights and enjoy the fruits of your labor!  I thought I’d run down a few tips and tricks to a successful winter wonderland installation. Many people use nails and screws, but with these common installation methods you permanently damage your home and run the risk of damaging your lights. Here are a few alternatives.. You can use shingle tab clips for installing along …

Random Roger » Welcome To The Christmas Light Installation Directory

Posted 18 days ago

Hi, welcome to the Christmas Light Installation directory project which aims to introduce Christmas lights installers with holiday rushed folks who wish to light up their homes with festive holiday lights without the hassle and time burden. If you have a local christmas light installer in your area please contact us and we’ll get them included. This is a project just getting off the ground, but in the future we hope to have rating systems, …

Random Roger » Brexit Is On The Clock

Posted 20 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; We all know the cliche that markets like to climb a wall of worry but it is not clear that the equity market is all that worried right now. The President has had some setbacks and his overall approval numbers are low but the University of Michigan survey reveals that confidence that Trump is the right person for the economy are shockingly …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 2, 2017

Posted 21 days ago

After the prior week's relative "fireworks", last week returned to the action we've seen much of 2017 – relative calm with an upward skew. Very minor losses Monday and Friday book-ended 3 days of gains, with Tuesday being the one day where indexes moved significantly in any direction. The S&P 500 gained 0.80% for the week and 5.5% for quarter 1. Tuesday's gains were buoyed by news consumer…

Random Roger » Hindsight Bias Catches Up With Even The Best Of Us

Posted 3 weeks ago

My latest post takes a look at some comments from Jim Cramer about ETFs and includes the following; The point is not to trash Cramer or to say using individual stocks is a bad idea but the notion that anyone is perfectly infallible avoiding stocks that go on to fail is simply wrong. A modest weighting in an individual stock like Baltimore Opera Hat Company (fictitious name owned by Mr. Burns on the Simpsons) that …

Random Roger » Healthcare Fails, Equities Waiver (sort of)

Posted 4 weeks ago

The American Health Care Act of course failed on Friday when it was determined there would not be a sufficient vote count to pass the bill so it was never brought to the floor for an actual vote. The bill was complex and the process is complicated and while this would appear create uncertainty around where the administration goes from here, markets were essentially flat on Friday. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 26, 2017

Posted 4 weeks ago

Tuesday's long overdue >1% selloff in the S&P 500 broke a very long and rare streak in the S&P 500. The S&P 500?s streak without a 1% down day was the longest since May 18, 1995! A marginal close lower Monday was followed by a 1.2% drop Tuesday (the NASDAQ fell 1.8% that day). “I think that investors are kind of starting to discount the likelihood of the immediacy of [President…

Random Roger » It Doesn’t Have To Be Doom & Gloom

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Another point I would reiterate from past posts is to realize that whatever number you end up with as your investment account, you will figure a way to make due with it because you will have to. The context here is believing your number to be $800,000 and retiring with $600,000. That is not ideal, something might have to give …

Random Roger » Hawkishly Dovish?

Posted 5 weeks ago

This week’s Market Update is posted and includes the following; On the optimism side of the ledger, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey registered the highest numbers since 2000 for Current Conditions. Looking a little closer at the numbers, there is a shocking disparity along political lines. Republicans registered at 122.4,versus an overall number of 97.6, while Democrats came in at 55.3. As an adviser you likely have had clients ask you if they …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 19, 2017

Posted 5 weeks ago

After a rare down week in 2017, indexes returned to gains albeit mild this past week. Almost all the action was contained on Wednesday when the market gained nearly 1% with much of that happened post a (widely expected) Federal Reserve announcing a quarter rate hike. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted a key short-term interest rate for the second time in three months, but in a sign of…

Random Roger » No, You Don’t Own An ETF

Posted 6 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at a few interesting (and funny) items from the current Barron’s issue. From the post; There was an article about one of the publicly traded asset managers (naming names is complicated for compliance reasons). A reader shared that he owned one of this company’s energy sector ETFs in the comments section. No, he owned a closed end fund from a company with a similar name. The name mix …

Random Roger » The Best Week Of The Year!

Posted 6 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; As the ten year spent a few minutes during the week above 2.60% we want to circle back to Bill Gross’ comments from last year where he placed great importance on 2.60% as being a point where bad things would ensue for capital markets, and he still feels this way. In mid-December, the ten year also flirted 2.60%, quickly backed off and …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 12, 2017

Posted 6 weeks ago

A rare down week in 2017; the first after six weeks of gains. The market needed one. That said – barely… the S&P 500 was down 0.4% and NASDAQ 0.2%. Monday and Tuesday were the first back to back down sessions since last January! Energy stocks and a drop in oil were one of the main culprits as was the healthcare industry after a vague tweet by President Trump about drug prices dropping…

Random Roger » Separating Reality From Catastrophe

Posted 6 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at recent comments from Rob Arnott about the trouble he sees brewing with smart beta strategies. From the post; Arnott goes on to say he sees this performance chasing as a looming catastrophe for buyers. This seems very unlikely. The downside here is that a given strategy will lag the broad market for an extended period. Taking a very simplistic example between a large cap value strategy and …

Random Roger » Bull Market Turns 8 This Week!

Posted 7 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Much was made during the week of Fidelity’s big drop in stock and ETF commissions from $7.95 to $4.95. This was in reaction to another firm’s cut and prompted at least one other firm to cut its commission. For years now, most online brokerage firms (amazing how the word “discount” is no longer used) have offered some large number of ETFs for …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 5, 2017

Posted 7 weeks ago

A very busy week indeed! Trump has basically turned into the new Ben Bernanke – whatever he whispers the market takes as face value as bullish and runs up. We saw that Wednesday after the address to Congress where there was a big spike the following day. In what many saw as a rather reserved speech, the U.S. president said he would push for around $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, and…

Random Roger » Do’s & Don’ts Of Thematic Investing

Posted 7 weeks ago

Due to a weather related power outage I am publishing the entire post here, instead of excerpting and linking. I am headed over to see the Mint 400 this weekend. Embedded in this post are some pictures from last year’s inspection day. Barron’s had a couple of interesting and related articles. One was about investing in themes and the other was an interview with Cressida Hogg who runs an unlisted infrastructure fund whose clients include …

The faster they rise, the harder they fall.. eventually.  None have risen faster or been discussed more in trader circles then Hansen Natural (HANS) over the past couple years.  With the stock rising parabolically with seemingly no end in sight, there will come a time when a significant correction will occur.  It looks like that time is near.  The stock staged a climax run in early May on news of a distribution deal with Anheiser Busch and  I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the stock met resistance right around 200.  Major whole numbers often mark the end of a big run.

Shorting a great company like Hansen (HANS) can be a risky move in a market that may be putting in a bottom, but there are a few scenarios where the reward vs. risk might be favorable enough for short entry.  One way I’d play this is to look for a low volume return to what is now resistance around the 20 day moving average at around 180.  You see the stock dipping below that level with sizable volume yesterday which is the first time it’s been below this support level since mid February. 

On the other hand, there is some support in the stock at 170 and I’d be looking to play this on the short side should it break below that level with heavy volume (which would most likely happen only if the market breaks key support levels)

6706_hans

More on this topic (What's this?)
More on the Energy Bubble
Accidental invention could light up the future
Harness Energy
Q3 2005 In Review
Read more on Hansen Natural, Energy at Wikinvest

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Charts: Forecasting the Future

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

There was a time when I had the patience (and time) to peruse the garbage filled discussion boards and listen to the thoughts of other investors/traders, occasionally offering my own two cents.  I must say those days are long gone, especially for the most hyped stocks.  I suppose I grew tired of sifting through the usual boasting, insulting, hyping and griping to get to the few interesting posts.  On a few occasions, I remember having a disagreement regarding the usefulness of chart reading.  It was said that chart reading was just "vodoo" and for the superstititous.  Believe it or not, many investors still feel this way.  But trading stocks without reading the chart is like navigating a thick forest without a compass.  It’s difficult to know where you’re going or where you’ve been.  It’s important to remember that the market looks to the future and the current price and volume pattern is a reflection of investors feelings about the future of the company.  So much so that often times charts can predict future news or growth long before it actually happens.  The charts can tell you where you might be going.  (I say might because chart reading is NEVER 100% – if it were, everyone would be rich.  It’s all about swinging the probability of success in your favor).  You don’t think so?  Then why is it that great companies with solid fundamentals sell off on no news, only to find out several months later that earnings and sales targets are missed?  Why is it that a stock surges with great volume on no news, only to release postive news a few weeks later?  Believe it or not, the big money (institutions… and/or insiders of course) has much more information on a company than you or I do.  As much as they would like to hide their tracks, it is not possible because volume levels reveal the move.  They are showing their hand.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of the importance of chart reading and the ability of charts to forecast the future.  The first example is of a company called Noble International, which was growing rapidly.  From March ’03 to June ’04 the company had posted quarter over quarter earnings growth of 61%, 38%, 23%, 71%, 24% and 38%.  That’s some mighty impressive growth.  The buy and hold investor who was just looking at the fundamentals probably would have held the stock until poor earnings were in fact released.  The problem with this strategy is that the stock will almost always sell off long before that first earnings report is released.  Once again, the charts (current price/volume) looks to the future.   Another argument from the buy and hold investor may be "Well, it’s a great company and it will come back."  Sure, it may come back.  It may come back in a month, 6 months, 3 years or never.  You lose no matter how long the stock spends correcting.  Either you’ll be hit with a sizable loss or you’ll be sitting on dead money for who knows how long.  You can always buy it back when the technical action improves (with most brokerages charging less than $15 for a market order, commission costs are no longer a big concern).  OK, on to the chart of Noble International (NOBL).

Nobl

Looking at the chart above (click to see larger image) there were several clues that would have told you to get out of the stock long before the 50% decline.  Looking at the overall structure you see a series of failed breakout attempts.  The stock surges on heavy volume, only to fall back into a base on a few occasions.  But the first obvious signal occurred on June 9th when the stock reversed on heavy volume.  Clearly, institutions were looking to unload shares at any opportunity.  The next couple of clues came in the form of a high volume plummet below major support of the 50 day moving average.  If that wasn’t enough of a sell sign, then the large amount of insider selling during that time should have been.  Several million dollars worth of NOBL shares were sold in May and June by several insiders.  Sure enough, the following quarter, the company reported less than stellar results as earnings came in less than the year ago period with a -6% quarter over quarter growth.  A great example of the chart forecasting the future.

It can work in the opposite direction as well.  A great example of this is DHB Industries (DHB), which soared over 20% today on news of a major order from the U.S. Army as well as the City of Baltimore.  But several days ago, there was a darn good clue that some good news was on the horizon.  That clue came in the form of … you guessed it, a high volume advance on no news.  But something was going on.  Let’s take a look at the chart below (click for larger image)

Dhb

As you can see, the big gap up with no news occurred on Nov 15.  It actually happened again on Nov 22, to a lesser degree.  Moves like these don’t usually happen for no reason.. it seemed at the time that another big order announcement was coming down the pike and that is exactly what happened.  Perhaps the CEO David Brooks (who sold 3.7 million shares on Nov 30th) should get a few lessons in chart reading!  Although, he’s probably too busy counting his money considering he made 70 million on the sale… what’s another 15 million right?

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The Triangle Revisited

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

A few days ago in a post titled “The Failure of a Triangle”, I looked at the failure of a well formed triangle pattern as the market continued to slump. It’s important to point at that while these particular patterns often work, they, like all patterns, are never gauranteed. Today I thought I’d take a look at another triangle pattern that did successfully breakout. The company is SFBC Intl, Inc. and it broke through the upper portion of the triangle with good buying volume. Notice the declining volume as the triangle forms and then the explosion in price and volume on the breakout. (click the image for a larger view)

canslimblogSFCCclose

What you see here is that the triangle formation is actually a handle formation for a much larger cup base. I think it’s important to note that the cup base is not a well formed base. You like to see a smoother base with less volatilility and more time spent forming the right side of the cup. While today’s move was a good one, it may have trouble getting above 40 in the near term due to market weakness and the magnitude of the advance in such a short time.

canslimblogSFCClong

Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.. always do your own research before making a decision. Have a comment about this or other posts? I’d love to hear it.. have a good weekend!

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The Failure of a Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

This is the first in what will be a series of posts highlighting stocks that have failed from bullish patterns and will be categorized under “When Good Charts Go Bad”. It’s important to study the chart patterns that fail so that we can avoid purchasing the stock or get out before getting burned. Today’s look is at a bullish symmetrical triangle formation that formed after a successful breakout from a flat base several weeks earlier. Often cited as a continuation pattern, the triangle formation presents a brief pause after a significant run up, before breaking out to additional gains. (as always, click the image below for a larger view)

canslimblogTMI

In this particular case, Team Inc. caught my attention as a well formed triangle formation and I watched it closely for a break above the upper portion of the triangle with heavy volume. It never happened. Eventually, the stock broke below the support level of the lower portion of the triangle with heavy selling volume. However, no loss occurred because no buy signal was presented. This is a great example of why it is important to look for a breakout above resistance with large buying volume. Without the wind at your back, your chances at success will diminish significantly.

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