Stock Charts

growth stock chart analysis

Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Something I’ve talked quite a bit about over the past few years in running this blog is the big advantage of the small guy.. the self investor over the big, laboring elephant that is the institutional investor.  You are the nimble, market ninja able to move to cash quickly by cutting losses quickly on positions and waiting for better investing environments.  The big fella has no such advantage because of the requirements to stay mostly invested and the slow process of unwinding positions and moving into new ones.  Institutions are forced to rely on on the financials of the past and management guesstimates of the future to make million dollar bets.  The problem with this approach is the executives lie or are just flat out wrong AND long before the earnings show deterioration, the stock will have already fallen off a cliff.

Case in point, Satyam Computer (SAY) of India.  Now here’s a company …

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Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Just a quick heads up to let you all know what I’m keeping an eye on for tomorrow.  Following that push above the 50 day moving averages in both the S&P and Dow, we have had two days of selling with today’s plunge putting the S&P and Dow back below support of their 50 day moving averages.  The market remains somewhat bullish up here, but it’s critical that we hold the November upward trend line which I’ll be watching on the 30 min charts of the SPY, DIA and Q’s tomorrow.  Below is a look at the 30 minute chart of the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY).  You can see the  trend line that was tested again today with a decent bounce in the last 30 minutes of trading to keep that level of support intact. 

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Synalloy (SYNL) Breaking the Triangle

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Synalloy continues to look extremely bullish and has busted out of a triangle formation today with heavy volume.

synalloy synl breakout stock chart triangle

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Is Hansen Natural (HANS) Running Out of Energy?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

Hansen Natural Recent News:

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jul 22, 2018

Posted 13 weeks ago

Generally a calm week for the indexes as most of the action was in individual stocks due to earnings. President Trump did roil things a bit by criticizing the Federal Reserve – seen as a no no, but at this point nothing should surprise from that front. In a stinging and historically rare criticism, President Donald Trump expressed frustration with the Federal Reserve and said the central bank…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jul 15, 2018

Posted 3 months ago

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator flipped to black late in the week prior to the last, and usually that bodes well short term. Indeed that foreshadowed a nice week. TRADE WARS ™!!!! certainly seems like a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event. “Given the rhetoric over the past few weeks, it seems like the probability of a trade war has increased. However, in the short term I still think there’s a…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jul 08, 2018

Posted 3 months ago

Currently the action for short term traders is choppy and tricky. Those with a long term view still are in cruise control as they have been for years. The holiday shortened week saw most of the action Monday as a "gap down" was met with buying, a nice rally Thursday, and then the employment data Friday gave the market something to think about other than TRADE WARS!!(tm) [which ironically…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jul 01, 2018

Posted 4 months ago

In last week's recap we noted the NYSE McClellan Oscillator has been negative all that week, which was a caution flag for short term traders. Higher volatility and a downward skew did indeed follow. Monday and Wednesday were big down days, offset a bit by a moderate rally Thursday. Monday's weakness was mostly triggered by TRADE WARS!!(tm): In a Twitter post Sunday, Trump called on trading…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jun 24, 2018

Posted 4 months ago

This was a second week of consolidation with generally good action in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ. The S&P 500 and DJIA suffered a bit more as TRADE WARS!!!(tm) fear affect companies in those indexes more than the companies in the former 2 indexes. Quite a few "gap ups" and "gap downs" this week as news overnight weighed on indexes. A sample of this week's fun: After Beijing’s retaliation…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jun 17, 2018

Posted 4 months ago

After two weeks of rallies, the S&P 500 mostly consolidated this week – except for Friday the action was very reminiscent of 2017 with almost no volatility at all intraday and modest gains or sideways action. Friday was the wrench in the mix, with a gap down to open the day but buyers came in during the afternoon and in the end the markets had a week to digest prior gains. Friday's action…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jun 10, 2018

Posted 4 months ago

Last week was much like the ones we saw throughout 2017! Up, up, up nice and slow…. with little volatility. And new record highs. Market news was quiet in general despite "global trade tensions". Really ….it was difficult to find much market moving news! (Insert crickets chirping hee) For the week the S&P 500 closed up 1.6% while the NASDAQ added 1.2%. Some catch up from the…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jun 3, 2018

Posted 5 months ago

After 2 weeks of low volatility, that variable was introduced back into the holiday shortened week! Another change from 2017 when almost every week was a low volatility week. That said, small caps (Russell 2000) and tech stocks held in quite well and we don't have any major technical change in the indexes – more on that later. "Political drama in Italy" was what caused some ruckus Tuesday…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap May 27, 2018

Posted 5 months ago

The second week in a row of low volatility which is usually advantage bulls. Monday saw a nice spike up for indexes and then the other four days of the week the range was very narrow. Monday's rally was due to the lessening chance of TRADE WARS!!(tm): Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that the Trump administration would delay implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods and…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap May 20, 2018

Posted 5 months ago

This was a generally quiet week in the senior indexes, consolidating some of the prior week's move up. That said the Russell 2000 had some very nice action with a "breakout!". Otherwise pretty quiet on the news front except for TRADE WARS!(tm): On Thursday, several news outlets reported that China had made an offer to cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by $200 billion, but a China official on…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap May 13, 2018

Posted 5 months ago

The indexes were looking a bit rocky the past few weeks, with a consolidation at lower levels with no real attempt at an upthrust — but the rally late in the week certainly helped prospects. The bulk of weekly gains came Wednesday and Thursday but Thursday's move up helped change the complexion of the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 charts which we'll show below. Trump made a speech "attacking"…

Random Roger » Has The Bear Arrived?

Posted 5 months ago

I initiated defensive action in client accounts today with a small purchase. You can read about the trade and my reasoning as to why I believe the odds that a bear market has started have increased. A few pictures from Kauai last week.

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap May 6, 2018

Posted 5 months ago

The indexes continue to mark time range bound at lower levels (with moderately high volatility) which should be a concern for bulls until it changes. Unlike consolidation after a move up, this is consolidation after a selloff which is not usually bullish. Selling Monday and Wednesday was offset by a rally Friday; tech in general helped the market quite a bit this week with Apple (AAPL)…

Random Roger » Latest posts at TheMaven

Posted 6 months ago

I’ve had a lot going on lately. I have resigned from AdvisorShares (I will have more on that soon) but have still been doing a lot of writing at TheMaven. Some of my recent posts include; A humorous take on hedge funds. A new look at the permanent portfolio. Whether UBI is insane or brilliant. Currently we are in Kauai doing some hiking, having a tough time finding beaches (the ones we usually go to …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 29, 2018

Posted 6 months ago

The indexes swung back and forth between sleepy days Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to >1% swings on Tuesday and Thursday. Earnings and bonds were indeed the theme of the past week. The rise in Treasury yields and the narrowing of the spread between 2 and 10 year bonds were a major focus the week prior to last, and traders were wringing hands (and then not so much) again this week. The ten…

Random Roger » Final Random Thoughts

Posted 6 months ago

I have resigned from AdvisorShares effective April 30th. This is my last regular blog post at Alpha Baskets, although I will be writing one more weekly Market Update next Monday. I will of course still be posting at TheMaven, Seeking Alpha and of course here at randomroger.com. From the post; This will be my final post here at Alpha Baskets, I am moving on from AdvisorShares after a little over four years. For my parting …

Random Roger » Markets Don’t Close 4/20 On A High

Posted 6 months ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Barron’s devoted a lot of pixels to the latest goings on with the slope of the yield curve. Earlier in the week the 2-10 treasury spread got close to 40 basis points before widening out to 49 basis points at the end of the week. This is something we have been closely following here for months. It is important to understand at …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 22, 2018

Posted 6 months ago

Strong start to the week; a weaker end – final tally was a modest move up. #TRADEWARS(tm) dived down this week as earnings took center stage. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K., in a note to investors said fears around a potential trade war and geopolitical concerns “have faded very much.” The yield on 10 year Treasuries rose to about a 4 year high — still low by…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 15, 2018

Posted 6 months ago

One thing technicals cannot account for are news events, and Tuesday's relaxation of fears about #TRADEWARS(tm) drove indexes to a very nice rally that day. That said we've stated that fear has been a bit overblown and emotional. Monday, Trump tweeted “China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on…

Random Roger » When Knowing What Will Happen Isn’t Enough

Posted 6 months ago

My latest post at Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; As I write this post on Monday afternoon Bitcoin is just under $6800. At that figure Yahoo Finance has it down 60% from its early January high. Obviously, people were buying at/near the highs. How many of those folks are looking back at merely a bad trade and how many have been crushed by over allocating to something that is down 60%? And …

Random Roger » Tariffs Throw A Cat Amongst The Pigeons

Posted 6 months ago

The weekly Market Update is up at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Bitcoin had a bit of a tumble last week down as much as 10%, trading in the $6500’s for a time on Friday before snapping back to $7000 over the weekend. The cryptocurrencies continue to be fascinating on several levels including what seems like compressed bull and bear market cycles, it was up over 1000% in about a year, YTD in 2018 …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 8, 2018

Posted 6 months ago

Volatility continued this week as #TRADEWARS(tm) rhetoric continued – more rhetoric than action, but traders got antsy again. Monday and Friday saw significant drawdowns, while the middle of the week saw positive returns. That said Wednesday was quite the day with a big swing from losses to gains – doubt we had a single day like that in all of 2017! Also of note: the S&P 500 fell below it's…

Random Roger » Don’t Let Big Tech Ruin You

Posted 7 months ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; There was one sentence that made me laugh out loud; “Passive investors who want to avoid the overconcentration risk from cap-weighted indexes can buy funds that own equal proportions of each stock in an index …” The idea may be perfectly valid but it is clear to me that the person who decides to switch to an index fund that uses an alternative …

Random Roger » Did Anyone Get The License Plate?

Posted 7 months ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Tech was also seen a driver of volatility after leading the market higher in January. While you might think that tech had a relatively bad quarter that was not the case. Looking at the more heavily traded, broad tech sector funds they were actually higher on the quarter as were narrower tech-themed niche funds. While there were some very loud news stories …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 1, 2018

Posted 7 months ago

Emotional angst about #TRADEWARS(tm)! lightened up Monday leading to a big rally; in percentage terms the best move up August 2015 on a single day. The rest of the week was very choppy with a big drawdown Tuesday and a rally into the holiday Thursday. Needless to say the benign and calm market of 2017 is long gone and with it a historical level of non volatility. The S&P 500 did gain 2.1%…

The faster they rise, the harder they fall.. eventually.  None have risen faster or been discussed more in trader circles then Hansen Natural (HANS) over the past couple years.  With the stock rising parabolically with seemingly no end in sight, there will come a time when a significant correction will occur.  It looks like that time is near.  The stock staged a climax run in early May on news of a distribution deal with Anheiser Busch and  I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the stock met resistance right around 200.  Major whole numbers often mark the end of a big run.

Shorting a great company like Hansen (HANS) can be a risky move in a market that may be putting in a bottom, but there are a few scenarios where the reward vs. risk might be favorable enough for short entry.  One way I’d play this is to look for a low volume return to what is now resistance around the 20 day moving average at around 180.  You see the stock dipping below that level with sizable volume yesterday which is the first time it’s been below this support level since mid February. 

On the other hand, there is some support in the stock at 170 and I’d be looking to play this on the short side should it break below that level with heavy volume (which would most likely happen only if the market breaks key support levels)

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Charts: Forecasting the Future

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

There was a time when I had the patience (and time) to peruse the garbage filled discussion boards and listen to the thoughts of other investors/traders, occasionally offering my own two cents.  I must say those days are long gone, especially for the most hyped stocks.  I suppose I grew tired of sifting through the usual boasting, insulting, hyping and griping to get to the few interesting posts.  On a few occasions, I remember having a disagreement regarding the usefulness of chart reading.  It was said that chart reading was just "vodoo" and for the superstititous.  Believe it or not, many investors still feel this way.  But trading stocks without reading the chart is like navigating a thick forest without a compass.  It’s difficult to know where you’re going or where you’ve been.  It’s important to remember that the market looks to the future and the current price and volume pattern is a reflection of investors feelings about the future of the company.  So much so that often times charts can predict future news or growth long before it actually happens.  The charts can tell you where you might be going.  (I say might because chart reading is NEVER 100% – if it were, everyone would be rich.  It’s all about swinging the probability of success in your favor).  You don’t think so?  Then why is it that great companies with solid fundamentals sell off on no news, only to find out several months later that earnings and sales targets are missed?  Why is it that a stock surges with great volume on no news, only to release postive news a few weeks later?  Believe it or not, the big money (institutions… and/or insiders of course) has much more information on a company than you or I do.  As much as they would like to hide their tracks, it is not possible because volume levels reveal the move.  They are showing their hand.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of the importance of chart reading and the ability of charts to forecast the future.  The first example is of a company called Noble International, which was growing rapidly.  From March ’03 to June ’04 the company had posted quarter over quarter earnings growth of 61%, 38%, 23%, 71%, 24% and 38%.  That’s some mighty impressive growth.  The buy and hold investor who was just looking at the fundamentals probably would have held the stock until poor earnings were in fact released.  The problem with this strategy is that the stock will almost always sell off long before that first earnings report is released.  Once again, the charts (current price/volume) looks to the future.   Another argument from the buy and hold investor may be "Well, it’s a great company and it will come back."  Sure, it may come back.  It may come back in a month, 6 months, 3 years or never.  You lose no matter how long the stock spends correcting.  Either you’ll be hit with a sizable loss or you’ll be sitting on dead money for who knows how long.  You can always buy it back when the technical action improves (with most brokerages charging less than $15 for a market order, commission costs are no longer a big concern).  OK, on to the chart of Noble International (NOBL).

Looking at the chart above (click to see larger image) there were several clues that would have told you to get out of the stock long before the 50% decline.  Looking at the overall structure you see a series of failed breakout attempts.  The stock surges on heavy volume, only to fall back into a base on a few occasions.  But the first obvious signal occurred on June 9th when the stock reversed on heavy volume.  Clearly, institutions were looking to unload shares at any opportunity.  The next couple of clues came in the form of a high volume plummet below major support of the 50 day moving average.  If that wasn’t enough of a sell sign, then the large amount of insider selling during that time should have been.  Several million dollars worth of NOBL shares were sold in May and June by several insiders.  Sure enough, the following quarter, the company reported less than stellar results as earnings came in less than the year ago period with a -6% quarter over quarter growth.  A great example of the chart forecasting the future.

It can work in the opposite direction as well.  A great example of this is DHB Industries (DHB), which soared over 20% today on news of a major order from the U.S. Army as well as the City of Baltimore.  But several days ago, there was a darn good clue that some good news was on the horizon.  That clue came in the form of … you guessed it, a high volume advance on no news.  But something was going on.  Let’s take a look at the chart below (click for larger image)

As you can see, the big gap up with no news occurred on Nov 15.  It actually happened again on Nov 22, to a lesser degree.  Moves like these don’t usually happen for no reason.. it seemed at the time that another big order announcement was coming down the pike and that is exactly what happened.  Perhaps the CEO David Brooks (who sold 3.7 million shares on Nov 30th) should get a few lessons in chart reading!  Although, he’s probably too busy counting his money considering he made 70 million on the sale… what’s another 15 million right?

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The Triangle Revisited

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

A few days ago in a post titled “The Failure of a Triangle”, I looked at the failure of a well formed triangle pattern as the market continued to slump. It’s important to point at that while these particular patterns often work, they, like all patterns, are never gauranteed. Today I thought I’d take a look at another triangle pattern that did successfully breakout. The company is SFBC Intl, Inc. and it broke through the upper portion of the triangle with good buying volume. Notice the declining volume as the triangle forms and then the explosion in price and volume on the breakout. (click the image for a larger view)

What you see here is that the triangle formation is actually a handle formation for a much larger cup base. I think it’s important to note that the cup base is not a well formed base. You like to see a smoother base with less volatilility and more time spent forming the right side of the cup. While today’s move was a good one, it may have trouble getting above 40 in the near term due to market weakness and the magnitude of the advance in such a short time.

Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.. always do your own research before making a decision. Have a comment about this or other posts? I’d love to hear it.. have a good weekend!

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The Failure of a Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

This is the first in what will be a series of posts highlighting stocks that have failed from bullish patterns and will be categorized under “When Good Charts Go Bad”. It’s important to study the chart patterns that fail so that we can avoid purchasing the stock or get out before getting burned. Today’s look is at a bullish symmetrical triangle formation that formed after a successful breakout from a flat base several weeks earlier. Often cited as a continuation pattern, the triangle formation presents a brief pause after a significant run up, before breaking out to additional gains. (as always, click the image below for a larger view)

In this particular case, Team Inc. caught my attention as a well formed triangle formation and I watched it closely for a break above the upper portion of the triangle with heavy volume. It never happened. Eventually, the stock broke below the support level of the lower portion of the triangle with heavy selling volume. However, no loss occurred because no buy signal was presented. This is a great example of why it is important to look for a breakout above resistance with large buying volume. Without the wind at your back, your chances at success will diminish significantly.

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