Stock Charts

growth stock chart analysis

Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Something I’ve talked quite a bit about over the past few years in running this blog is the big advantage of the small guy.. the self investor over the big, laboring elephant that is the institutional investor.  You are the nimble, market ninja able to move to cash quickly by cutting losses quickly on positions and waiting for better investing environments.  The big fella has no such advantage because of the requirements to stay mostly invested and the slow process of unwinding positions and moving into new ones.  Institutions are forced to rely on on the financials of the past and management guesstimates of the future to make million dollar bets.  The problem with this approach is the executives lie or are just flat out wrong AND long before the earnings show deterioration, the stock will have already fallen off a cliff.

Case in point, Satyam Computer (SAY) of India.  Now here’s a company …

Read Entire Post “Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading” Here

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Satyam Computer at Wikinvest

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Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Just a quick heads up to let you all know what I’m keeping an eye on for tomorrow.  Following that push above the 50 day moving averages in both the S&P and Dow, we have had two days of selling with today’s plunge putting the S&P and Dow back below support of their 50 day moving averages.  The market remains somewhat bullish up here, but it’s critical that we hold the November upward trend line which I’ll be watching on the 30 min charts of the SPY, DIA and Q’s tomorrow.  Below is a look at the 30 minute chart of the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY).  You can see the  trend line that was tested again today with a decent bounce in the last 30 minutes of trading to keep that level of support intact. 

Read Entire Post “Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart” Here

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P Setup For Re-test Of August Low
Nearly 70% Of S&P 500 Stocks In Correction Or Bear Market Territory
S&P Approaches Critical Tipping Point
Market Timing Risk
Read more on Abc Communications, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 (SPX) at Wikinvest

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Synalloy (SYNL) Breaking the Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Synalloy continues to look extremely bullish and has busted out of a triangle formation today with heavy volume.

synalloy synl breakout stock chart triangle

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Is Hansen Natural (HANS) Running Out of Energy?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

Hansen Natural Recent News:

Random Roger » Balance Sheet Reduction By Paper Cut

Posted 13 hours ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The Government Pension Fund of Norway, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, recently surpassed $1 trillion in AUM. The fund was established in the 1990’s as an investment pool for revenue accrued from oil. The fund owns an average of 1.3% of every publicly traded company on the planet. The country’s GDP is only $370 billion. If they paid out every citizen, all …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Sep 24, 2017

Posted 21 hours ago

Four days of mild gains offset by a day of modest losses led to a quiet week. For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, the NASDAQ fell 0.3% while the Russell 2000 was the standout with a gain of 1.3%. The Federal Reserve did announce the long awaited draw down of it's balance sheet which was of no surprise – and the market's reaction was muted. The Fed ended it's massive bond buying program …

Random Roger » Serious Retirement Downsizing

Posted 4 days ago

Whenever I write about retiring in another country or in a tiny/small house as a way to save money or otherwise makeup for a smaller than maybe needed portfolio to cover retirement expenses, someone invariably will mention that there are some very inexpensive places to live along the Gulf Coast and other parts of Texas. Last week we went on a road trip through New Mexico and spent a little time in McKinley County (my …

Random Roger » Planning Advice From True Experts

Posted 5 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; He makes fun, rightly so, of the question that invariably shows up on risk assessments that asks what you would do if the market crashed; sell a lot, sell a little, buy along with a couple of other answers that put the client in the position of assuming how they might react to some future event. This really becomes about working with the …

Random Roger » James Altucher is Right, Retirees Shouldn’t Own A Home

Posted 7 days ago

Actually, I don’t know if he is right but he may have a point. If you are unfamiliar with James he is an investor turned investment writer turned lifestyle guru turned social media star. James and I overlapped and if I am remembering right, had a little bit of interaction at The Street.com (both alumni of the site). James was also kind enough to mention my blog in one of his earlier books. Our paths …

Random Roger » “You’ll Be Stone Dead In A Moment”

Posted 8 days ago

This week’s Market Update is posted and includes the following; The title of this week’s update is a play on Monty Python and the Holy Grail describing the retail group which had been given up for dead. But when measured by one of the large industry ETFs, it has actually done quite while over the last month gaining 450 basis points more than the S&P 500. Last week the space got something of nudge when …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Sep 17, 2017

Posted 8 days ago

A sharp rally Monday was followed by 4 relatively quiet days as gains were efficiently consolidated. After a brief respite, bears are back on the run again. No real catalyst Monday other than "less damage than expected from Irma" and no weekend hijinks from the North Koreans. For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.4%. Katie Stockton is giddy: “The U.S. stock market is…

Stock Picks Bob's Advice » Lam Research Corp (LRCX)

Posted 9 days ago

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, and that you should always consult with your professional investment advisor prior to making any decisions based on information on this website.I apologize for the infrequency of my posts here on this blog. I have not forgetten any of you who might choose to follow my posts and I …

Random Roger » Rock You Like A Hurricane

Posted 15 days ago

Markets were lower across the board last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.84%, the S&P 500 giving up 0.59%, the NASDAQ slid 1.13% and the Russell 2000 dipped 0.97%. Congress managed to get together to kick the can down the road on the debt ceiling buying three more months by lifting the limit. Oddly, President Trump appeared to side with the democrats on this issue to the frustration of quite a few …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Sep 10, 2017

Posted 15 days ago

The holiday shortened week started with a bout of moderate selling but things were largely quiet in the indexes after that. The debt ceiling turned into a nothing burger – we didn't even get the normal rhetorical circus out of D.C. before they kicked the can forever down the road – boo! So we'll be back at it circa mid December when they wave their hands in faux outrage as they raise it…

Random Roger » Barron’s On Health Savings Accounts

Posted 16 days ago

Barron’s had a nice primer on HSA accounts although I am not sure why the title referred to them as “hidden.” The first post I can find in my archive on HSAs was from January 2005. Side note; I’ve been blogging for an awfully long time. I’ve been a huge fan HSAs from the first time I ever heard of them. One useful nugget from Barron’s; there is a $1000 catch up contribution starting at …

Random Roger » Tom Petty’s Retirement Plan

Posted 19 days ago

You never slow down, you never grow old A bunch of different snippets today. First up, my brother sent me this link from the USA Today that as Congress starts to try to figure out tax reform they might change the tax deferred status of 401k contributions. If they were to change it such that all 401ks essentially now become Roth 401ks (going forward) that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Of course, …

Random Roger » August Was Complicated But Markets Took It In Stride

Posted 21 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; Gold had a good week amid the angst caused by the hurricane and lingering political dysfunction. However the action has been in the industrial metals this year. Barron’s reported a year to date rise of 24% for copper and a whopping 43% lift for palladium. Palladium is of course used in catalytic converters and copper is used in just about everything and while the headline …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Sep 3, 2017

Posted 3 weeks ago

It was a week of "fixing things" technically. Tuesday some geopolitical tension surfaced after North Korea launched a missile over Japan and indexes opened down but buyers dove in and the indexes essentially rallied 3 days straight at a 45 degree angle! Wednesday was a key day in so many ways on so many index charts – it wasn't necessarily a big up day but it broke downtrends on key charts. …

Random Roger » Emulating Endowments With ETFs

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; To the extent timberland is an alternative holy grail with a low correlation and high returns (not saying it is, please bear with me here) the exchange traded vehicles that target timber one way or another don’t quite offer the same exposure. I looked at two ETFs that track timber-related companies and the problem is that they tend to be cyclical (many of …

Random Roger » Lower Returns For Longer?

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Ramsay’s comment about expecting 3-4% returns over the next ten years reminds me of John Hussman’s process which simplistically put says that based on prevailing valuations the next X number of years should produce X% in annual returns. Hussman’s conclusions have not been correct during the bull run, he’s thought the markets have been overvalued all the way up such that return prospects …

Random Roger » Unlucky 7’s

Posted 4 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; Just about everyone knows the ongoing concern that domestic equity valuations are too high (even if you disagree, you know about it). One common justification for “high” valuations that you have no doubt also heard is that low interest rates allow more room for higher valuations because low rates mean fixed income valuations are stretched which alters the equity risk premium. Mark Yusko from Morgan …

Random Roger » Setting Expectations

Posted 4 weeks ago

Please click through and give a listen to this week’s macro moment. Between Two Medicine and Many Glacier in Glacier National Park

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Aug 27, 2017

Posted 4 weeks ago

It was a quiet week aside from Tuesday which saw a nearly 1% jump in the S&P 500 – but not necessarily a win for the bulls (yet). Much like on an upward move you want to see periods of consolidation to rest and consolidate; we are in a near term downward move and one could say this rally was a bit of a rest and consolidation. Bulls still have work to do. Monday and …

Random Roger » The More You Put Into It, the More You Get Out Of It

Posted 5 weeks ago

I was interviewed a couple of weeks ago about being the chief of Walker Fire. Please click through and give a listen. Walker Patrol 85 filtered to look like a painting with the Prisma app.

Random Roger » Should You Take Social Security Early & Invest It?

Posted 5 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets tries to tackle one aspect of Social Security. The decision of when to take Social Security is obviously very important but there are countless approaches on when the best time is and most of them are quite sound. Take it at 62, live off the government’s money while preserving your own. Take it at 62 because you don’t usually start coming out ahead until your late 70’s and there …

Random Roger » Using Sectorology In Portfolio Construction

Posted 5 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and covers one of my favorite ETF topics. Financials right now comprise about 14% of the S&P 500. If the SPX is your benchmark index then investing at the sector level means making a decision about being overweight/underweight/equal weight the sector. If for example you decide to be underweight and you want a 10% weighting in financials you would need to look through to the weightings of …

Random Roger » Lost Lessons

Posted 5 weeks ago

A few weeks ago I started recording a very brief pod cast type of commentary for Alpha Baskets that I’ve not been real good about posting here. Please click here. Playing around with an app that makes pictures look like paintings Sunset in Seattle

Random Roger » Don’t Look Directly At The VIX

Posted 5 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; There are divergent forces at play with how consumers engage the economy to, well, consume. On the one hand the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey came in on Friday at its highest reading since January of this year. On the other hand there has been carnage in the retail group as the earnings season winds down. In addition to the athletic apparel retailer that …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Aug 20, 2017

Posted 5 weeks ago

The story of 2017 has been "lack of volatility". There is finally some volatility entering the market, which is nice for those out there who like to actually trade a bit rather than buy and hold. In last week's recaps we noted the NYSE McClellan Indicator had registered an extreme oversold reading so a "rubber band" type of snap back rally could happen. Thursday it hit an extreme level over -80…

The faster they rise, the harder they fall.. eventually.  None have risen faster or been discussed more in trader circles then Hansen Natural (HANS) over the past couple years.  With the stock rising parabolically with seemingly no end in sight, there will come a time when a significant correction will occur.  It looks like that time is near.  The stock staged a climax run in early May on news of a distribution deal with Anheiser Busch and  I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the stock met resistance right around 200.  Major whole numbers often mark the end of a big run.

Shorting a great company like Hansen (HANS) can be a risky move in a market that may be putting in a bottom, but there are a few scenarios where the reward vs. risk might be favorable enough for short entry.  One way I’d play this is to look for a low volume return to what is now resistance around the 20 day moving average at around 180.  You see the stock dipping below that level with sizable volume yesterday which is the first time it’s been below this support level since mid February. 

On the other hand, there is some support in the stock at 170 and I’d be looking to play this on the short side should it break below that level with heavy volume (which would most likely happen only if the market breaks key support levels)

6706_hans

More on this topic (What's this?)
More on the Energy Bubble
Accidental invention could light up the future
Harness Energy
Q3 2005 In Review
Read more on Hansen Natural, Energy at Wikinvest

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Charts: Forecasting the Future

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

There was a time when I had the patience (and time) to peruse the garbage filled discussion boards and listen to the thoughts of other investors/traders, occasionally offering my own two cents.  I must say those days are long gone, especially for the most hyped stocks.  I suppose I grew tired of sifting through the usual boasting, insulting, hyping and griping to get to the few interesting posts.  On a few occasions, I remember having a disagreement regarding the usefulness of chart reading.  It was said that chart reading was just "vodoo" and for the superstititous.  Believe it or not, many investors still feel this way.  But trading stocks without reading the chart is like navigating a thick forest without a compass.  It’s difficult to know where you’re going or where you’ve been.  It’s important to remember that the market looks to the future and the current price and volume pattern is a reflection of investors feelings about the future of the company.  So much so that often times charts can predict future news or growth long before it actually happens.  The charts can tell you where you might be going.  (I say might because chart reading is NEVER 100% – if it were, everyone would be rich.  It’s all about swinging the probability of success in your favor).  You don’t think so?  Then why is it that great companies with solid fundamentals sell off on no news, only to find out several months later that earnings and sales targets are missed?  Why is it that a stock surges with great volume on no news, only to release postive news a few weeks later?  Believe it or not, the big money (institutions… and/or insiders of course) has much more information on a company than you or I do.  As much as they would like to hide their tracks, it is not possible because volume levels reveal the move.  They are showing their hand.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of the importance of chart reading and the ability of charts to forecast the future.  The first example is of a company called Noble International, which was growing rapidly.  From March ’03 to June ’04 the company had posted quarter over quarter earnings growth of 61%, 38%, 23%, 71%, 24% and 38%.  That’s some mighty impressive growth.  The buy and hold investor who was just looking at the fundamentals probably would have held the stock until poor earnings were in fact released.  The problem with this strategy is that the stock will almost always sell off long before that first earnings report is released.  Once again, the charts (current price/volume) looks to the future.   Another argument from the buy and hold investor may be "Well, it’s a great company and it will come back."  Sure, it may come back.  It may come back in a month, 6 months, 3 years or never.  You lose no matter how long the stock spends correcting.  Either you’ll be hit with a sizable loss or you’ll be sitting on dead money for who knows how long.  You can always buy it back when the technical action improves (with most brokerages charging less than $15 for a market order, commission costs are no longer a big concern).  OK, on to the chart of Noble International (NOBL).

Nobl

Looking at the chart above (click to see larger image) there were several clues that would have told you to get out of the stock long before the 50% decline.  Looking at the overall structure you see a series of failed breakout attempts.  The stock surges on heavy volume, only to fall back into a base on a few occasions.  But the first obvious signal occurred on June 9th when the stock reversed on heavy volume.  Clearly, institutions were looking to unload shares at any opportunity.  The next couple of clues came in the form of a high volume plummet below major support of the 50 day moving average.  If that wasn’t enough of a sell sign, then the large amount of insider selling during that time should have been.  Several million dollars worth of NOBL shares were sold in May and June by several insiders.  Sure enough, the following quarter, the company reported less than stellar results as earnings came in less than the year ago period with a -6% quarter over quarter growth.  A great example of the chart forecasting the future.

It can work in the opposite direction as well.  A great example of this is DHB Industries (DHB), which soared over 20% today on news of a major order from the U.S. Army as well as the City of Baltimore.  But several days ago, there was a darn good clue that some good news was on the horizon.  That clue came in the form of … you guessed it, a high volume advance on no news.  But something was going on.  Let’s take a look at the chart below (click for larger image)

Dhb

As you can see, the big gap up with no news occurred on Nov 15.  It actually happened again on Nov 22, to a lesser degree.  Moves like these don’t usually happen for no reason.. it seemed at the time that another big order announcement was coming down the pike and that is exactly what happened.  Perhaps the CEO David Brooks (who sold 3.7 million shares on Nov 30th) should get a few lessons in chart reading!  Although, he’s probably too busy counting his money considering he made 70 million on the sale… what’s another 15 million right?

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The Triangle Revisited

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

A few days ago in a post titled “The Failure of a Triangle”, I looked at the failure of a well formed triangle pattern as the market continued to slump. It’s important to point at that while these particular patterns often work, they, like all patterns, are never gauranteed. Today I thought I’d take a look at another triangle pattern that did successfully breakout. The company is SFBC Intl, Inc. and it broke through the upper portion of the triangle with good buying volume. Notice the declining volume as the triangle forms and then the explosion in price and volume on the breakout. (click the image for a larger view)

canslimblogSFCCclose

What you see here is that the triangle formation is actually a handle formation for a much larger cup base. I think it’s important to note that the cup base is not a well formed base. You like to see a smoother base with less volatilility and more time spent forming the right side of the cup. While today’s move was a good one, it may have trouble getting above 40 in the near term due to market weakness and the magnitude of the advance in such a short time.

canslimblogSFCClong

Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.. always do your own research before making a decision. Have a comment about this or other posts? I’d love to hear it.. have a good weekend!

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The Failure of a Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

This is the first in what will be a series of posts highlighting stocks that have failed from bullish patterns and will be categorized under “When Good Charts Go Bad”. It’s important to study the chart patterns that fail so that we can avoid purchasing the stock or get out before getting burned. Today’s look is at a bullish symmetrical triangle formation that formed after a successful breakout from a flat base several weeks earlier. Often cited as a continuation pattern, the triangle formation presents a brief pause after a significant run up, before breaking out to additional gains. (as always, click the image below for a larger view)

canslimblogTMI

In this particular case, Team Inc. caught my attention as a well formed triangle formation and I watched it closely for a break above the upper portion of the triangle with heavy volume. It never happened. Eventually, the stock broke below the support level of the lower portion of the triangle with heavy selling volume. However, no loss occurred because no buy signal was presented. This is a great example of why it is important to look for a breakout above resistance with large buying volume. Without the wind at your back, your chances at success will diminish significantly.

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