Stock Charts

growth stock chart analysis

Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Something I’ve talked quite a bit about over the past few years in running this blog is the big advantage of the small guy.. the self investor over the big, laboring elephant that is the institutional investor.  You are the nimble, market ninja able to move to cash quickly by cutting losses quickly on positions and waiting for better investing environments.  The big fella has no such advantage because of the requirements to stay mostly invested and the slow process of unwinding positions and moving into new ones.  Institutions are forced to rely on on the financials of the past and management guesstimates of the future to make million dollar bets.  The problem with this approach is the executives lie or are just flat out wrong AND long before the earnings show deterioration, the stock will have already fallen off a cliff.

Case in point, Satyam Computer (SAY) of India.  Now here’s a company …

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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Satyam Computer at Wikinvest

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Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Just a quick heads up to let you all know what I’m keeping an eye on for tomorrow.  Following that push above the 50 day moving averages in both the S&P and Dow, we have had two days of selling with today’s plunge putting the S&P and Dow back below support of their 50 day moving averages.  The market remains somewhat bullish up here, but it’s critical that we hold the November upward trend line which I’ll be watching on the 30 min charts of the SPY, DIA and Q’s tomorrow.  Below is a look at the 30 minute chart of the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY).  You can see the  trend line that was tested again today with a decent bounce in the last 30 minutes of trading to keep that level of support intact. 

Read Entire Post “Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart” Here

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P Setup For Re-test Of August Low
Nearly 70% Of S&P 500 Stocks In Correction Or Bear Market Territory
S&P Approaches Critical Tipping Point
Market Timing Risk
Read more on Abc Communications, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 (SPX) at Wikinvest

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Synalloy (SYNL) Breaking the Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Synalloy continues to look extremely bullish and has busted out of a triangle formation today with heavy volume.

synalloy synl breakout stock chart triangle

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Is Hansen Natural (HANS) Running Out of Energy?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

Hansen Natural Recent News:

Random Roger » It Turns Out Brazil Has Political Problems

Posted 41 hours ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at the shenanigans in Brazil and includes the following; Paraphrasing Lloyd Bridges from the movie Airplane, Brazil picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue as news of an alleged incident implicating President Michel Temer with bribery sent the benchmark Bovespa index and the real reeling on Thursday. When the dust settled on Thursday the Bovespa was down about 9%… Please click through to read the entire post. …

Random Roger » Political Volatility Catches Up To Markets (Kind Of)

Posted 5 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The year to date decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY) took a steeper turn last week down to 97. It was just a few months ago at 103 that we talked about that level being the historical upper end of the range. Bullishness for further gains was plentiful but sometimes past resistance wins. The DXY is a long way from any …

Stock Trading To Go » Political Theater Matters for a Moment! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Posted 5 days ago

Finally some action out there! The comatose market of much of 2017 finally saw some volatility with a large drop Wednesday as the political theater finally hit markets, but that was offset by solid gains Monday and Friday. Wednesday's move was the largest drop since September 2016 (!!!) but in the end bears could only push the S&P 500 back 0.38% for the week. Until Wednesday's move the…

Random Roger » Gigging Your Way To A Successful Retirement

Posted 9 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; In last week’s post about tiny houses I mentioned my belief that a young person living this lifestyle exclusively is more likely than not to wake up one day at 40 without much accumulated and without much in the way of marketable skills. Doing gig work on the side, as a young person, is a different story. At the end of the work …

Random Roger » The Denial Trade?

Posted 12 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Another word we could have used in the above paragraph is complacency which is supported by the low VIX. Also supporting the complacency thesis is a fun fact from Goldman Sachs, via Barron’s, who points out that implied option volatility on one of the larger tech sector ETFs is currently less than implied option volatility on one of the larger utility sector …

Stock Trading To Go » Sad Snap (SNAP)! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Posted 12 days ago

Feels like a broken record … and has been for a long time… but once again a shockingly low amount of daily volatility this past week as aside from a quick jump down and then right back up Thursday, the indexes didn't do much in terms of swings from day to day; or even intraday. The largest move on the closing print for any individual day this week was 0.22%! For the week the S&P …

Random Roger » The Behavior Of Tiny Houses

Posted 17 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; Zweig cites one survey of investors who expect a balanced portfolio to have an average annual return of 8.5% which he notes actually exceeds the average annual return of just equities. It’s worse with institutional investors who expect 20% annually from venture capital investments. Please click through to read the entire post. These trucks take a beating. Engine panel from Walker Fire Patrol …

Stock Trading To Go » StockTrader.com Trade Journal 3.0 Released!

Posted 18 days ago

The latest version of our free Trade Journal tool has been released. All 12,000+ users now have access. What's new in v3.0? 100% mobile friendly – You can now use Trade Journal on your smartphone or tablet. Updated navigation – The main header menu now matches the rest of StockTrader.com for easy navigation throughout the site. New account dashboard – With our brand new account dashboard,…

Random Roger » This One Goes To 11

Posted 19 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Not quite 11 but the SEC has approved 4X levered ETFs from ForceShares, one of which will track the broad market and the other will offer inverse exposure. Bloomberg TV had a little fun with these funds, sharing some humorous Tweets including one that proposed the symbol “METH” for them. Some will say these are tools for speculation and should not exist …

Stock Trading To Go » Oprah’s Happy and a Bear Market Hits the Makeup Industry! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Posted 19 days ago

A quiet grinding rally marked the week and really could be a symbol for almost all of 2017. Four days of minimal movement, led to a bit of a rally late Friday. And there was your week! The S&P 500 finished up 0.6% on the week, and the NASDAQ continues to outperform, pushing up 0.9%. The theme of the year has been very little volatility. That continued! As of Friday, the S&P 500 moved…

Random Roger » An Art Fund?

Posted 3 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; One crucial concept to investing that I should write about more is the extent to which simpler is better. While “simple” is relative to the individual’s experience, an art fund won’t be relatively simple for too many people. Please click through to read the entire post. Over the weekend we hit up a garage sale at an artists house in New River. In …

Random Roger » The First 100 Days

Posted 4 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; Trump laid out a very specific legislative agenda that so far has not come to pass in terms of health care and tax reform as the headliners. The timetable now for either one depends on who you ask. The fate of the wall seems to be in question. He has had a few negative encounters with other world leaders; detractors would say he doesn’t know …

Stock Trading To Go » NASDAQ Tops 6000 For the First Time! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Posted 4 weeks ago

A "relief rally" (gap up style) occurred Monday after the French Election showed centrist Macron to be the most likely winner in the final vote in May, helped indexes push to higher ground for the week. A poll from Ipsos/Sopra Steria showed Macron leading Le Pen head to head, 62% to 38%. Conservative François Fillon and Socialist Benoît Hamon — the mainstream candidates defeated in the first…

chrisperruna.com » Stock Trends for 2017 Beating the Market

Posted 4 weeks ago

The Stock Trends for 2017, comprised of 21 handpicked stocks (discretionary style), is beating the major market indices by a healthy margin. The Nasdaq Composite is the closest but still trails by four percentage points. In order to be even, the Nasdaq would have to improve its year-to-date results (12.24%) by 30%. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 would have to more than double their year-to-date gains in order to match the portfolio gains. Year-to-Date …

Random Roger » Small Cap Owning Large Cap, Mass Hysteria!

Posted 4 weeks ago

The title of this post is a play on the bit in the movie Stripes when Bill Murray talks about dogs and cats living together. You probably heard about the niche ETF (naming names is difficult for compliance reasons) that essentially grew too large in assets to track its niche. It isn’t just a niche fund it is the small cap version of that niche. It became the tail wagging the dog. Creations had to …

Random Roger » Creative Destruction; It’s Kind Of A Big Deal

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at creative destruction as relates to the widespread closing of retail outlets and what the long term implications might be. From the post; As a bigger concept this is about creative destruction, a concept widely attributed to Joseph Schumpeter from the 1950’s. Creative destruction is what makes laptops and 60 inch televisions be dirt cheap (Moore’s Law is a derivative of creative destruction) and the list of industries …

Random Roger » Don’t Fall For The Fallacy Of Explanation

Posted 5 weeks ago

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; We are fascinated by various spread relationships that serve as risk proxies. Long time market participants may recall the TED spread, also in years past AUDCHF, Australian dollar versus the Swiss franc, was just such a measure where, put in today’s terms AUDCHF moving up was viewed as the equivalent of risk on and if the cross moved down it was risk …

Stock Trading To Go » The Tax Cuts are Coming! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Posted 5 weeks ago

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support. A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room. We'll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired. Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in…

Random Roger » Being John Malkovich-Moment

Posted 5 weeks ago

A quick note; Do you remember the movie Being John Malkovich, the one where John Cusack and his girlfriend go into Malkovich’s brain? Then along the way John Malkovich goes into his own brain? Yeah, it was a weird movie but it was funny too. The ETF business may be having its own Being John Malkovich-moment with the launch on April 20th of the ETF Industry Exposure & Financial Services ETF which is being sponsored …

Random Roger » Being Disciplined 90% Of The Time Won’t Work

Posted 5 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; A common criticism of indexing is the extent to which the index tilts more and more toward growth as the bull market matures because the growthier, high fliers go on a run of outperformance later in the cycle (this is historically how it has worked). Those are the same types of names that stand to go down a lot, really a lot, during …

Random Roger » “Head-Snapping” Reversals?

Posted 6 weeks ago

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The 200 day moving average (DMA) is viewed as being a significant technical indicator. Our take on this is that the 200 day moving average is a signal for the health of demand for an asset. When the price is above the 200 DMA, demand can thought of as being healthy regardless of whatever else is going on in the world. Likewise, …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 16, 2017

Posted 6 weeks ago

Important note – we are doing a survey of our readers which can be found here. If you are new to the site in the past few months our surveys are probably the least taxing of any on the internet; usually 2 or 3 questions so we'd appreciate the few moments it takes to fill one out. Thanks so much! Still no significant movement in the indexes but with moderate losses Wednesday and Thursday, the…

Random Roger » Don’t Let Performance Haunt You Forever

Posted 6 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; A well thought out strategy focuses on longer time periods like an entire stock market cycle with goal of having enough money when it is needed. Someone who retires at 63 with enough money doesn’t say to themselves “while I am glad I have enough, those two quarters in a row that I lagged the market when I was 56 are going to …

Random Roger » Blame It On The Rain

Posted 7 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; In news that harkens back a little over two years ago when the Swiss National Bank depegged the franc versus the euro, the Czech National Bank depegged the koruna from the euro, removing the floor. The cross is quoted as EURCZK so this move allows the euro to drop against CZK if that is where the market takes it which seems likely …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 9, 2017

Posted 7 weeks ago

2 items of interest before we begin: We will be emailing out a quick reader survey next week; this will be the first time it will be sent in email format and the first reader survey since we've changed to our weekly format. Please take a moment to grade our weekly content, thanks! For those interested in forex trading, ForexBrokers.com (sister site to us here at StockTrader.com and…

The faster they rise, the harder they fall.. eventually.  None have risen faster or been discussed more in trader circles then Hansen Natural (HANS) over the past couple years.  With the stock rising parabolically with seemingly no end in sight, there will come a time when a significant correction will occur.  It looks like that time is near.  The stock staged a climax run in early May on news of a distribution deal with Anheiser Busch and  I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the stock met resistance right around 200.  Major whole numbers often mark the end of a big run.

Shorting a great company like Hansen (HANS) can be a risky move in a market that may be putting in a bottom, but there are a few scenarios where the reward vs. risk might be favorable enough for short entry.  One way I’d play this is to look for a low volume return to what is now resistance around the 20 day moving average at around 180.  You see the stock dipping below that level with sizable volume yesterday which is the first time it’s been below this support level since mid February. 

On the other hand, there is some support in the stock at 170 and I’d be looking to play this on the short side should it break below that level with heavy volume (which would most likely happen only if the market breaks key support levels)

6706_hans

More on this topic (What's this?)
More on the Energy Bubble
Accidental invention could light up the future
Harness Energy
Q3 2005 In Review
Read more on Hansen Natural, Energy at Wikinvest

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Charts: Forecasting the Future

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

There was a time when I had the patience (and time) to peruse the garbage filled discussion boards and listen to the thoughts of other investors/traders, occasionally offering my own two cents.  I must say those days are long gone, especially for the most hyped stocks.  I suppose I grew tired of sifting through the usual boasting, insulting, hyping and griping to get to the few interesting posts.  On a few occasions, I remember having a disagreement regarding the usefulness of chart reading.  It was said that chart reading was just "vodoo" and for the superstititous.  Believe it or not, many investors still feel this way.  But trading stocks without reading the chart is like navigating a thick forest without a compass.  It’s difficult to know where you’re going or where you’ve been.  It’s important to remember that the market looks to the future and the current price and volume pattern is a reflection of investors feelings about the future of the company.  So much so that often times charts can predict future news or growth long before it actually happens.  The charts can tell you where you might be going.  (I say might because chart reading is NEVER 100% – if it were, everyone would be rich.  It’s all about swinging the probability of success in your favor).  You don’t think so?  Then why is it that great companies with solid fundamentals sell off on no news, only to find out several months later that earnings and sales targets are missed?  Why is it that a stock surges with great volume on no news, only to release postive news a few weeks later?  Believe it or not, the big money (institutions… and/or insiders of course) has much more information on a company than you or I do.  As much as they would like to hide their tracks, it is not possible because volume levels reveal the move.  They are showing their hand.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of the importance of chart reading and the ability of charts to forecast the future.  The first example is of a company called Noble International, which was growing rapidly.  From March ’03 to June ’04 the company had posted quarter over quarter earnings growth of 61%, 38%, 23%, 71%, 24% and 38%.  That’s some mighty impressive growth.  The buy and hold investor who was just looking at the fundamentals probably would have held the stock until poor earnings were in fact released.  The problem with this strategy is that the stock will almost always sell off long before that first earnings report is released.  Once again, the charts (current price/volume) looks to the future.   Another argument from the buy and hold investor may be "Well, it’s a great company and it will come back."  Sure, it may come back.  It may come back in a month, 6 months, 3 years or never.  You lose no matter how long the stock spends correcting.  Either you’ll be hit with a sizable loss or you’ll be sitting on dead money for who knows how long.  You can always buy it back when the technical action improves (with most brokerages charging less than $15 for a market order, commission costs are no longer a big concern).  OK, on to the chart of Noble International (NOBL).

Nobl

Looking at the chart above (click to see larger image) there were several clues that would have told you to get out of the stock long before the 50% decline.  Looking at the overall structure you see a series of failed breakout attempts.  The stock surges on heavy volume, only to fall back into a base on a few occasions.  But the first obvious signal occurred on June 9th when the stock reversed on heavy volume.  Clearly, institutions were looking to unload shares at any opportunity.  The next couple of clues came in the form of a high volume plummet below major support of the 50 day moving average.  If that wasn’t enough of a sell sign, then the large amount of insider selling during that time should have been.  Several million dollars worth of NOBL shares were sold in May and June by several insiders.  Sure enough, the following quarter, the company reported less than stellar results as earnings came in less than the year ago period with a -6% quarter over quarter growth.  A great example of the chart forecasting the future.

It can work in the opposite direction as well.  A great example of this is DHB Industries (DHB), which soared over 20% today on news of a major order from the U.S. Army as well as the City of Baltimore.  But several days ago, there was a darn good clue that some good news was on the horizon.  That clue came in the form of … you guessed it, a high volume advance on no news.  But something was going on.  Let’s take a look at the chart below (click for larger image)

Dhb

As you can see, the big gap up with no news occurred on Nov 15.  It actually happened again on Nov 22, to a lesser degree.  Moves like these don’t usually happen for no reason.. it seemed at the time that another big order announcement was coming down the pike and that is exactly what happened.  Perhaps the CEO David Brooks (who sold 3.7 million shares on Nov 30th) should get a few lessons in chart reading!  Although, he’s probably too busy counting his money considering he made 70 million on the sale… what’s another 15 million right?

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The Triangle Revisited

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

A few days ago in a post titled “The Failure of a Triangle”, I looked at the failure of a well formed triangle pattern as the market continued to slump. It’s important to point at that while these particular patterns often work, they, like all patterns, are never gauranteed. Today I thought I’d take a look at another triangle pattern that did successfully breakout. The company is SFBC Intl, Inc. and it broke through the upper portion of the triangle with good buying volume. Notice the declining volume as the triangle forms and then the explosion in price and volume on the breakout. (click the image for a larger view)

canslimblogSFCCclose

What you see here is that the triangle formation is actually a handle formation for a much larger cup base. I think it’s important to note that the cup base is not a well formed base. You like to see a smoother base with less volatilility and more time spent forming the right side of the cup. While today’s move was a good one, it may have trouble getting above 40 in the near term due to market weakness and the magnitude of the advance in such a short time.

canslimblogSFCClong

Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.. always do your own research before making a decision. Have a comment about this or other posts? I’d love to hear it.. have a good weekend!

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The Failure of a Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

This is the first in what will be a series of posts highlighting stocks that have failed from bullish patterns and will be categorized under “When Good Charts Go Bad”. It’s important to study the chart patterns that fail so that we can avoid purchasing the stock or get out before getting burned. Today’s look is at a bullish symmetrical triangle formation that formed after a successful breakout from a flat base several weeks earlier. Often cited as a continuation pattern, the triangle formation presents a brief pause after a significant run up, before breaking out to additional gains. (as always, click the image below for a larger view)

canslimblogTMI

In this particular case, Team Inc. caught my attention as a well formed triangle formation and I watched it closely for a break above the upper portion of the triangle with heavy volume. It never happened. Eventually, the stock broke below the support level of the lower portion of the triangle with heavy selling volume. However, no loss occurred because no buy signal was presented. This is a great example of why it is important to look for a breakout above resistance with large buying volume. Without the wind at your back, your chances at success will diminish significantly.

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