Stock Charts

growth stock chart analysis

Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Something I’ve talked quite a bit about over the past few years in running this blog is the big advantage of the small guy.. the self investor over the big, laboring elephant that is the institutional investor.  You are the nimble, market ninja able to move to cash quickly by cutting losses quickly on positions and waiting for better investing environments.  The big fella has no such advantage because of the requirements to stay mostly invested and the slow process of unwinding positions and moving into new ones.  Institutions are forced to rely on on the financials of the past and management guesstimates of the future to make million dollar bets.  The problem with this approach is the executives lie or are just flat out wrong AND long before the earnings show deterioration, the stock will have already fallen off a cliff.

Case in point, Satyam Computer (SAY) of India.  Now here’s a company …

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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Satyam Computer at Wikinvest

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Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Just a quick heads up to let you all know what I’m keeping an eye on for tomorrow.  Following that push above the 50 day moving averages in both the S&P and Dow, we have had two days of selling with today’s plunge putting the S&P and Dow back below support of their 50 day moving averages.  The market remains somewhat bullish up here, but it’s critical that we hold the November upward trend line which I’ll be watching on the 30 min charts of the SPY, DIA and Q’s tomorrow.  Below is a look at the 30 minute chart of the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY).  You can see the  trend line that was tested again today with a decent bounce in the last 30 minutes of trading to keep that level of support intact. 

Read Entire Post “Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart” Here

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P Setup For Re-test Of August Low
Nearly 70% Of S&P 500 Stocks In Correction Or Bear Market Territory
S&P Approaches Critical Tipping Point
Market Timing Risk
Read more on Abc Communications, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 (SPX) at Wikinvest

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Synalloy (SYNL) Breaking the Triangle

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Synalloy continues to look extremely bullish and has busted out of a triangle formation today with heavy volume.

synalloy synl breakout stock chart triangle

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Is Hansen Natural (HANS) Running Out of Energy?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

Hansen Natural Recent News:

Random Roger » Random Roger Round Up

Posted 28 hours ago

The weekly Market update is posted at Alpha Baskets and looks at the blockchain ETFs, interesting goings on in the bond market and 48 hour bear market in Bitcoin. I’ve been busy over at TheMaven; A new ETF that pays out 7% but of course it’s complicated. There’s big trouble brewing with long term care policies. The disturbing trend of young people throwing away their financial futures.

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jan 21, 2017

Posted 41 hours ago

Investors suffered through two whole days of losses in a shortened week – but the indexes still gained on the week! Boo yah! Even a sharp reversal Tuesday (gap up, close at the lows) – which is usually negative short term – couldn't stop the freight train. Earnings season kicked off in earnest. The government shutdown put absolutely zero fear into markets. “I would characterize a shutdown as…

Random Roger » Bitcoin Hedge Fund Proliferation

Posted 5 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; There is a do-gooder aspect to this that is interesting. I mentioned a while back having met someone very involved in Bitcoin who felt strongly that one of the big features of Bitcoin is that no government can debase it. This ties in with the NYT article talking about the banking system being rigged, only benefitting a few people and that Bitcoin can …

Random Roger » Chip Off The Old Block…Chain

Posted 6 days ago

In case you missed, two blockchain ETFs started trading today. In today’s post at TheMaven I deconstructed both of them to explore what they own and what expectations would be reasonable for investors to have for now and how that might change. I also talk about the blockchain stock I own personally. Please click through to read the post. A recent sunrise here in Walker.

Random Roger » The Bond Bear Has Started…Again!

Posted 7 days ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Bill Gross declared the start of the bond bear market…again. Barron’s made the case for the yield on the ten year rising up to 2.75%. While predicting interesting rates is a loser’s game, such a gentile lift would be surprise us, we might expect a more extreme outcome in either direction as opposed to just 20 basis points. If a bear market …

Random Roger » Maven Recap

Posted 8 days ago

Below are some of the posts I’ve written over the last few days at TheMaven. Please consider registering at TheMaven and then following my page. Thank you! A practical application of Warren Buffett’s advice. A look at some wild, wild action in the ETF industry. Central Bank hedge funds, seriously.

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Posted 9 days ago

After 3 days of mild "rest" – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again. This is starting to get "parabolic"… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999. (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below) The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week. “This reminds…

Random Roger » Can The S&P 500 Really Go To 3700?

Posted 13 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; In reaction to Grantham, Rudolf E. Havenstein (this is a historical figure, so it is an anonymous account) jokingly Tweeted that old people should own the cryptocurrency Ripple, a Chinese internet stock, one of those companies that changed their names to include the word blockchain and then set fire to any cash left over. Please click through to read the entire post. Here’s …

Random Roger » Blog Post Recap

Posted 15 days ago

The weekly Market Update I write for AdvisorShares is posted and includes the following; Interest rates have generally been moving higher since the FOMC last met and raised rates and the market seems to be taking it at its intended word for three more hikes in 2018. The yield on the US Ten Year Treasury Note closed Friday at 2.47%. The yield on the Two Year US Treasury has also been going up and doing …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Jan 7, 2017

Posted 16 days ago

After slapping bulls all over the place in 2017, bulls decided to begin 2018 with… the same prescription. Four days of rip roaring gains after a holiday Monday. At this pace the market will go up every day in 2018! For the week the S&P 500 gained 2.6%, while the Nasdaq was up 3.4%. The DJIA closed at a record on the first four trading days of the new year, the first time it has …

Random Roger » Random Roger Round Up

Posted 20 days ago

My latest post at Alpha Baskets looks at the extent to which your “retirement number” is hokum and includes the following; For many years in these posts I have consistently said that having a goal can be useful but your number, your actual number is what you end up with, not what a website or advisor told you 30 years ago. What you end up is with your reality. If you’re 66, have $788,000 and … » Stock Trends for 2018

Posted 3 weeks ago

If you thought my Stock Trends for 2017 list was boring (same old stocks), just wait until you see the creativity of this year’s list. I said this last January 1st: “Perhaps this list is old and boring (Buffett likes boring) but we’re here to make money, not be sexy.” So, let’s get into the mind of Buffet, which will explain why I am going to “let it ride” for now… “There seems to be …

Stock Trading To Go » Tools of the ‘Trade’ – How I Invest (2018 Edition)

Posted 3 weeks ago

Each year I do a deep dive post into my trading results and the trading tools I use. See: 2017, 2016, 2015. Before we get to the results, here's a quick summary of what's happened here at over the past year. Our free weekly market recaps published on Sundays, written by staff writer Mark Hanna, wrapped up the year with 22,325 subscribers. If you are not signed up yet, you can do…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Dec 31, 2017

Posted 3 weeks ago

StockTrader New Year's Eve Edition! Despite a hiccup on the last day of the year, indexes finished off a fantastic year in fine fashion with the S&P 500 surging 19.6% and the NASDAQ 28.4%!! Keep in mind that is off a strong rally in November/December 2016 post election day. Volume was extremely light as is usual for the week between Christmas and New Years Eve. More crazy records being… » Stock Trends for 2017 Final Results

Posted 4 weeks ago

The results are in and the Stock Trends for 2017 outperformed the general market by a wide margin. The discretionary buy-and-hold (mock) portfolio logged final gains that were 48% larger than the Nasdaq, 66% larger than the DJIA and 115% larger than the S&P 500. Final 2017 Results: Stock Trends for 2017: +41.85% Nasdaq Composite: +28.24% Dow Jones Industrial Average: +25.08% S&P 500 Large Cap Index: +19.42% Final Results Fun Facts: 20 of the …

Random Roger » What It Means to be an Advisor

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post is up at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Invariably, if you’re an advisor you field all sorts of financial or market questions socially or at family functions. I had three different Bitcoin conversations at Christmas dinner at my in-laws. I’ve had conversations with half of my nieces/nephews over the years about how to get started in their 401ks. I’ve had similar 401k conversations with a couple of guys at the fire …

Random Roger » Getting this wrong can ruin your retirement.

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post at TheMaven dives in on the sequence of returns. Please check it out and if you like what you see, please sign up and follow me. It is easy and free.

Random Roger » New Cannabis ETF

Posted 4 weeks ago

Today’s post at TheMaven looks at the new cannabis focused ETF. I think this will evolve into a huge investment theme. The fund is interesting but there are some complexities. Please click through and check it out. I also hope you will register as a user at the site and follow my page, it’s free!

Random Roger » Tax Bill Passed and Signed!

Posted 4 weeks ago

The weekly market update is posted and includes the following; ETF fund flows for 2017 topped $500 billion as the space continues the trend of gaining on traditional mutual funds. Despite ETFs’ structural advantages, Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg tweeted his surprise that there is still more than $10 trillion in old school funds. Some portion of that $10 trillion, unfortunately, is 401k participants not engaged with their 401ks. It is not uncommon for people to …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Dec 24, 2017

Posted 4 weeks ago

Merry Christmas! Hope you get a chance to read our special holiday edition recap! The second to last week of the year was a lot like so many others – positive for bulls. Almost all the gains happened in the opening moments of Monday on anticipation of the tax reform passing; the rest of the week was the typical little volatility. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both gained 0.3% on the week. Lots…

Random Roger » Goals For 2018!

Posted 5 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Everyone knows about fear and greed and the tendencies to experience both at the wrong time (buy after a large run up, sell after a large decline). As things like bitcoin, blockchain and maybe even some of the mega cap tech stocks have done well, regret can creep in and pull investors away from what they know is best for them. Please click …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Dec 17, 2017

Posted 5 weeks ago

Bears continue to get squashed in the infinite feedback loop that is the 2017 stock market. Relative modest moves up and down Monday thru Thursday were followed by a spike up Friday on news (now a bit over anticipatory) about a tax reform deal complete. A last-minute expansion of the child tax credit persuaded Sen. […]

Random Roger » Good News, Bad News, News We Don’t Understand? Market Up!

Posted 5 weeks ago

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before; the stock market went up last week. We will double check but we think that is 700 weeks in a row (lame humor attempt). The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.30%, the S&P 500 gained 0.89%, the NASDAQ rallied 1.37% and the Russell 2000 was good for 0.56%. At close to 20% YTD for the S&P 500 the index is likely to close out the year …

Random Roger » A 64% Decline? Really?

Posted 6 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; I thought of a different way to frame the swirl of indicators all saying different things at any moment in market history. There are things to be concerned about and there are things to act on. The very narrow leadership of the market this year would go on the list of things to be concerned about. Narrow leadership is an unhealthy sign but …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Dec 10, 2017

Posted 6 weeks ago

Before we talk about the stodgy ole stock market, anyone see that Bitcoin? $11K last week – $16K this week…. and as I write this bitcoin futures are up over $18K. Just another week in the life…. (here is what you need to know about bitcoin futures) Back to your regularly scheduled program… the S&P 500 rested a bit while a small correction rolled through the massive winners of 2017 in…

The faster they rise, the harder they fall.. eventually.  None have risen faster or been discussed more in trader circles then Hansen Natural (HANS) over the past couple years.  With the stock rising parabolically with seemingly no end in sight, there will come a time when a significant correction will occur.  It looks like that time is near.  The stock staged a climax run in early May on news of a distribution deal with Anheiser Busch and  I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the stock met resistance right around 200.  Major whole numbers often mark the end of a big run.

Shorting a great company like Hansen (HANS) can be a risky move in a market that may be putting in a bottom, but there are a few scenarios where the reward vs. risk might be favorable enough for short entry.  One way I’d play this is to look for a low volume return to what is now resistance around the 20 day moving average at around 180.  You see the stock dipping below that level with sizable volume yesterday which is the first time it’s been below this support level since mid February. 

On the other hand, there is some support in the stock at 170 and I’d be looking to play this on the short side should it break below that level with heavy volume (which would most likely happen only if the market breaks key support levels)


More on this topic (What's this?)
More on the Energy Bubble
Accidental invention could light up the future
Harness Energy
Q3 2005 In Review
Read more on Hansen Natural, Energy at Wikinvest

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Charts: Forecasting the Future

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

There was a time when I had the patience (and time) to peruse the garbage filled discussion boards and listen to the thoughts of other investors/traders, occasionally offering my own two cents.  I must say those days are long gone, especially for the most hyped stocks.  I suppose I grew tired of sifting through the usual boasting, insulting, hyping and griping to get to the few interesting posts.  On a few occasions, I remember having a disagreement regarding the usefulness of chart reading.  It was said that chart reading was just "vodoo" and for the superstititous.  Believe it or not, many investors still feel this way.  But trading stocks without reading the chart is like navigating a thick forest without a compass.  It’s difficult to know where you’re going or where you’ve been.  It’s important to remember that the market looks to the future and the current price and volume pattern is a reflection of investors feelings about the future of the company.  So much so that often times charts can predict future news or growth long before it actually happens.  The charts can tell you where you might be going.  (I say might because chart reading is NEVER 100% – if it were, everyone would be rich.  It’s all about swinging the probability of success in your favor).  You don’t think so?  Then why is it that great companies with solid fundamentals sell off on no news, only to find out several months later that earnings and sales targets are missed?  Why is it that a stock surges with great volume on no news, only to release postive news a few weeks later?  Believe it or not, the big money (institutions… and/or insiders of course) has much more information on a company than you or I do.  As much as they would like to hide their tracks, it is not possible because volume levels reveal the move.  They are showing their hand.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of the importance of chart reading and the ability of charts to forecast the future.  The first example is of a company called Noble International, which was growing rapidly.  From March ’03 to June ’04 the company had posted quarter over quarter earnings growth of 61%, 38%, 23%, 71%, 24% and 38%.  That’s some mighty impressive growth.  The buy and hold investor who was just looking at the fundamentals probably would have held the stock until poor earnings were in fact released.  The problem with this strategy is that the stock will almost always sell off long before that first earnings report is released.  Once again, the charts (current price/volume) looks to the future.   Another argument from the buy and hold investor may be "Well, it’s a great company and it will come back."  Sure, it may come back.  It may come back in a month, 6 months, 3 years or never.  You lose no matter how long the stock spends correcting.  Either you’ll be hit with a sizable loss or you’ll be sitting on dead money for who knows how long.  You can always buy it back when the technical action improves (with most brokerages charging less than $15 for a market order, commission costs are no longer a big concern).  OK, on to the chart of Noble International (NOBL).


Looking at the chart above (click to see larger image) there were several clues that would have told you to get out of the stock long before the 50% decline.  Looking at the overall structure you see a series of failed breakout attempts.  The stock surges on heavy volume, only to fall back into a base on a few occasions.  But the first obvious signal occurred on June 9th when the stock reversed on heavy volume.  Clearly, institutions were looking to unload shares at any opportunity.  The next couple of clues came in the form of a high volume plummet below major support of the 50 day moving average.  If that wasn’t enough of a sell sign, then the large amount of insider selling during that time should have been.  Several million dollars worth of NOBL shares were sold in May and June by several insiders.  Sure enough, the following quarter, the company reported less than stellar results as earnings came in less than the year ago period with a -6% quarter over quarter growth.  A great example of the chart forecasting the future.

It can work in the opposite direction as well.  A great example of this is DHB Industries (DHB), which soared over 20% today on news of a major order from the U.S. Army as well as the City of Baltimore.  But several days ago, there was a darn good clue that some good news was on the horizon.  That clue came in the form of … you guessed it, a high volume advance on no news.  But something was going on.  Let’s take a look at the chart below (click for larger image)


As you can see, the big gap up with no news occurred on Nov 15.  It actually happened again on Nov 22, to a lesser degree.  Moves like these don’t usually happen for no reason.. it seemed at the time that another big order announcement was coming down the pike and that is exactly what happened.  Perhaps the CEO David Brooks (who sold 3.7 million shares on Nov 30th) should get a few lessons in chart reading!  Although, he’s probably too busy counting his money considering he made 70 million on the sale… what’s another 15 million right?

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The Triangle Revisited

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

A few days ago in a post titled “The Failure of a Triangle”, I looked at the failure of a well formed triangle pattern as the market continued to slump. It’s important to point at that while these particular patterns often work, they, like all patterns, are never gauranteed. Today I thought I’d take a look at another triangle pattern that did successfully breakout. The company is SFBC Intl, Inc. and it broke through the upper portion of the triangle with good buying volume. Notice the declining volume as the triangle forms and then the explosion in price and volume on the breakout. (click the image for a larger view)


What you see here is that the triangle formation is actually a handle formation for a much larger cup base. I think it’s important to note that the cup base is not a well formed base. You like to see a smoother base with less volatilility and more time spent forming the right side of the cup. While today’s move was a good one, it may have trouble getting above 40 in the near term due to market weakness and the magnitude of the advance in such a short time.


Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.. always do your own research before making a decision. Have a comment about this or other posts? I’d love to hear it.. have a good weekend!

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The Failure of a Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

This is the first in what will be a series of posts highlighting stocks that have failed from bullish patterns and will be categorized under “When Good Charts Go Bad”. It’s important to study the chart patterns that fail so that we can avoid purchasing the stock or get out before getting burned. Today’s look is at a bullish symmetrical triangle formation that formed after a successful breakout from a flat base several weeks earlier. Often cited as a continuation pattern, the triangle formation presents a brief pause after a significant run up, before breaking out to additional gains. (as always, click the image below for a larger view)


In this particular case, Team Inc. caught my attention as a well formed triangle formation and I watched it closely for a break above the upper portion of the triangle with heavy volume. It never happened. Eventually, the stock broke below the support level of the lower portion of the triangle with heavy selling volume. However, no loss occurred because no buy signal was presented. This is a great example of why it is important to look for a breakout above resistance with large buying volume. Without the wind at your back, your chances at success will diminish significantly.

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