Stock Charts

growth stock chart analysis

Satyam Computer (SAY) Fraud Highlights The Advantage of the Self Investor & The Importance of Chart Reading

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

Something I’ve talked quite a bit about over the past few years in running this blog is the big advantage of the small guy.. the self investor over the big, laboring elephant that is the institutional investor.  You are the nimble, market ninja able to move to cash quickly by cutting losses quickly on positions and waiting for better investing environments.  The big fella has no such advantage because of the requirements to stay mostly invested and the slow process of unwinding positions and moving into new ones.  Institutions are forced to rely on on the financials of the past and management guesstimates of the future to make million dollar bets.  The problem with this approach is the executives lie or are just flat out wrong AND long before the earnings show deterioration, the stock will have already fallen off a cliff.

Case in point, Satyam Computer (SAY) of India.  Now here’s a company …

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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Satyam Computer at Wikinvest

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Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 1

Just a quick heads up to let you all know what I’m keeping an eye on for tomorrow.  Following that push above the 50 day moving averages in both the S&P and Dow, we have had two days of selling with today’s plunge putting the S&P and Dow back below support of their 50 day moving averages.  The market remains somewhat bullish up here, but it’s critical that we hold the November upward trend line which I’ll be watching on the 30 min charts of the SPY, DIA and Q’s tomorrow.  Below is a look at the 30 minute chart of the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY).  You can see the  trend line that was tested again today with a decent bounce in the last 30 minutes of trading to keep that level of support intact. 

Read Entire Post “Upward Trend Line Off Nov Low Needs to Hold: A Look At SPY 30 Min Chart” Here

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P Setup For Re-test Of August Low
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Read more on Abc Communications, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 (SPX) at Wikinvest

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Synalloy (SYNL) Breaking the Triangle

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Synalloy continues to look extremely bullish and has busted out of a triangle formation today with heavy volume.

synalloy synl breakout stock chart triangle

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Is Hansen Natural (HANS) Running Out of Energy?

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

Hansen Natural Recent News:

Random Roger » Markets Don’t Close 4/20 On A High

Posted 9 hours ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Barron’s devoted a lot of pixels to the latest goings on with the slope of the yield curve. Earlier in the week the 2-10 treasury spread got close to 40 basis points before widening out to 49 basis points at the end of the week. This is something we have been closely following here for months. It is important to understand at …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 22, 2018

Posted 22 hours ago

Strong start to the week; a weaker end – final tally was a modest move up. #TRADEWARS(tm) dived down this week as earnings took center stage. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K., in a note to investors said fears around a potential trade war and geopolitical concerns “have faded very much.” The yield on 10 year Treasuries rose to about a 4 year high — still low by…

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 15, 2018

Posted 8 days ago

One thing technicals cannot account for are news events, and Tuesday's relaxation of fears about #TRADEWARS(tm) drove indexes to a very nice rally that day. That said we've stated that fear has been a bit overblown and emotional. Monday, Trump tweeted “China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on…

Random Roger » When Knowing What Will Happen Isn’t Enough

Posted 12 days ago

My latest post at Alpha Baskets is up and includes the following; As I write this post on Monday afternoon Bitcoin is just under $6800. At that figure Yahoo Finance has it down 60% from its early January high. Obviously, people were buying at/near the highs. How many of those folks are looking back at merely a bad trade and how many have been crushed by over allocating to something that is down 60%? And …

Random Roger » Tariffs Throw A Cat Amongst The Pigeons

Posted 14 days ago

The weekly Market Update is up at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Bitcoin had a bit of a tumble last week down as much as 10%, trading in the $6500’s for a time on Friday before snapping back to $7000 over the weekend. The cryptocurrencies continue to be fascinating on several levels including what seems like compressed bull and bear market cycles, it was up over 1000% in about a year, YTD in 2018 …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 8, 2018

Posted 15 days ago

Volatility continued this week as #TRADEWARS(tm) rhetoric continued – more rhetoric than action, but traders got antsy again. Monday and Friday saw significant drawdowns, while the middle of the week saw positive returns. That said Wednesday was quite the day with a big swing from losses to gains – doubt we had a single day like that in all of 2017! Also of note: the S&P 500 fell below it's…

Random Roger » Don’t Let Big Tech Ruin You

Posted 18 days ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is published and includes the following; There was one sentence that made me laugh out loud; “Passive investors who want to avoid the overconcentration risk from cap-weighted indexes can buy funds that own equal proportions of each stock in an index …” The idea may be perfectly valid but it is clear to me that the person who decides to switch to an index fund that uses an alternative …

Random Roger » Did Anyone Get The License Plate?

Posted 3 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; Tech was also seen a driver of volatility after leading the market higher in January. While you might think that tech had a relatively bad quarter that was not the case. Looking at the more heavily traded, broad tech sector funds they were actually higher on the quarter as were narrower tech-themed niche funds. While there were some very loud news stories …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Apr 1, 2018

Posted 3 weeks ago

Emotional angst about #TRADEWARS(tm)! lightened up Monday leading to a big rally; in percentage terms the best move up August 2015 on a single day. The rest of the week was very choppy with a big drawdown Tuesday and a rally into the holiday Thursday. Needless to say the benign and calm market of 2017 is long gone and with it a historical level of non volatility. The S&P 500 did gain 2.1%…

Random Roger » Learning From Iomega

Posted 4 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Reading a headline like that, a cynic might immediately think of the famous BusinessWeek cover from 1979 proclaiming the Death of Equities or Irving Fisher declaring equites having reached “what looks like a permanently high plateau” on October 16, 1929. And from my page at TheMaven; A look at a crappy 401k plan. Should you cancel your health insurance?

Random Roger » Markets Crumble Under The Weight of Tariff Threats

Posted 4 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; As a qualitative observation this drop doesn’t feel as panicky as the one in early February but interestingly both declines in SPX terms stopped at that index’ 200 day moving average at least that was the case at the close on Friday. And from my page at TheMaven; Thoughts on the 200 DMA holding. Is the new shipping futures ETF a third …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 25, 2018

Posted 4 weeks ago

Things were looking pretty solid coming into th week but #TRADEWARS(tm)! is the new #Brexit! and certainly roiled markets. A lot of this is perception – even the earlier announced tariffs in the steel and aluminum industries are already being watered down just days/weeks into their implementation but some ethereal worries about retaliation seem to be the cause of worries. Whatever the case, the…

Random Roger » There’s An ETF For That

Posted 5 weeks ago

My latest post at TheMaven looks at Howard Mark’s thoughts on managing volatility over the course of the stock market cycle and includes the following; If you knew you could get an 8% return every single year for the next 20 years, I mean exactly 8% every year, and that the stock market would have a volatile ride to come out at the same spot in 20 years you’d take reliable 8% instead of the …

Random Roger » March Magic

Posted 5 weeks ago

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The ten year anniversary of Bear Stearns going under was last week. It was an amazing period of history for markets as Bear was of course a venerable name on Wall Street and its failure created more awareness that any company can fail and of course even bigger names than Bear went on to fail or otherwise be rescued by the government. …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 18, 2018

Posted 5 weeks ago

Indexes were coming off a massive week and entered this past week somewhat overbought, so certainly were due for some sort of rest. For the week, the S&P lost 1.2%, and the NASDAQ 1%. While most of this political mumbo jumbo stuff is not really market moving for more than a hot minute while the algorithms scramble to react, it is worth noting the movement in key economic positions. To…

Random Roger » The Bull Market Turns Nine!

Posted 6 weeks ago

The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; We now know a little more about the steel and aluminum tariffs. While actual trade wars can’t be good for anyone, the detail we have now implies that this all may be a negotiating ploy. Canada and Mexico have a very visible path to being exempt and other countries can negotiate out of them. Last week we said that Trump supporters would …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 11, 2018

Posted 6 weeks ago

Great week for the bulls with bookend big gains on both Monday and Friday. The NASDAQ actually ended at all time highs so that swift correction is in the books. While there was a lot of "trade war" riff raff, indexes showed it's a side show. White House economic adviser Gary Cohn announced his resignation Wednesday but all that did was put the S&P 500 down fractionally for a day. “It is…

Random Roger » Are Alternatives Substitute For Equities?

Posted 7 weeks ago

My latest post for Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; The idea of reducing stress by placing yourself in fewer stress-inducing situations resonates with me personally and professionally. Personally, in that I have been working from home since my mid-thirties so no traffic and far fewer frustrating encounters with people at the office and professionally in that I have long advocated using diversifiers (now called alternatives) to manage portfolio volatility. We know that …

Random Roger » Trade Wars! Give Me Those Trade Wars!

Posted 7 weeks ago

This week’s Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; It was widely reported that technology grew to take up 25% of S&P 500. Sector weightings in the index can give great clues for signs of excess in markets as was the case with energy growing to more than 30% of the S&P 500 in the early 1980’s, tech getting to 30% 18 years ago and financials at 22% at the peak …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Mar 2, 2018

Posted 7 weeks ago

Very tricky action in the market this week. Monday's rally looked really bullish – we stated at the end of the prior week we wanted to see how this small wedge in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts resolved. It looked like a breakout to the upside Monday. However, a nasty reversal Tuesday – with a close below the prior day's low – was daunting. Then Wednesday and Thursday the action was poor. …

Random Roger » Game Planning Another Lost Decade

Posted 8 weeks ago

My latest post at Alpha Baskets is posted and includes the following; Meb Faber Tweeted out portfolio return expectations from various market participants looking out over the next ten years. Vanguard was at the low end looking for 4.5%, the “average investor” was in the middle at 10.2% and hedge funds think they will generate 13.0%. Depending on who you read you can find expectations in the three’s as well. Please click through to read …

Random Roger » This Week’s ETF Maven & Random Roger Posts

Posted 8 weeks ago

The weekly market update is posted at Alpha Baskets and looks at the huge treasury auction and the poor returns from Greenlight Capital. Last week at Alpha Baskets I took a look at dilemma of depriving yourself today for a retirement with many unknowns. And from over at TheMaven; A look at whether Dennis Gartman really blew up betting on a blockchain stock. Hedging your portfolio incorrectly can make it much worse. The latest from …

Stock Trading To Go » Weekly Market Recap Feb 25, 2018

Posted 8 weeks ago

The action is certainly much more volatile than it has been for a long time. While indexes booked a mild gain for the week it wasn't on the back of 0.1% to 0.3% moves up four of five days a week like we've seen in the very unusual period we just came out of. The Federal Reserve minutes usually don't provide much in the way of fireworks but Wednesday when the quote of an “increased …

Random Roger » The Latest Random Roger Posts

Posted 9 weeks ago

The weekly market update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; We think increased volatility of volatility could be a net positive that perhaps indicates complacency has been shaken out of the market. Save for the last year or so, a little bit of nervousness has been good for equities. From my page at TheMaven; A look at multi-factor sector funds. The role of volatility in portfolio construction.

Stock Trading To Go » 2018 Broker Ranking Published at StockBrokers.com

Posted 9 weeks ago

Our sister site, StockBrokers.com, has published its 2018 Online Broker Review. Six months, 13 equity brokers, 292 variables, 260 customer service tests, 3,796 data points, and over 40,000 words of research. Best Online Brokers Best Robo Advisors Needless to say, it was a journey.

The faster they rise, the harder they fall.. eventually.  None have risen faster or been discussed more in trader circles then Hansen Natural (HANS) over the past couple years.  With the stock rising parabolically with seemingly no end in sight, there will come a time when a significant correction will occur.  It looks like that time is near.  The stock staged a climax run in early May on news of a distribution deal with Anheiser Busch and  I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the stock met resistance right around 200.  Major whole numbers often mark the end of a big run.

Shorting a great company like Hansen (HANS) can be a risky move in a market that may be putting in a bottom, but there are a few scenarios where the reward vs. risk might be favorable enough for short entry.  One way I’d play this is to look for a low volume return to what is now resistance around the 20 day moving average at around 180.  You see the stock dipping below that level with sizable volume yesterday which is the first time it’s been below this support level since mid February. 

On the other hand, there is some support in the stock at 170 and I’d be looking to play this on the short side should it break below that level with heavy volume (which would most likely happen only if the market breaks key support levels)

6706_hans

More on this topic (What's this?)
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Accidental invention could light up the future
Harness Energy
Q3 2005 In Review
Read more on Hansen Natural, Energy at Wikinvest

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Charts: Forecasting the Future

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

There was a time when I had the patience (and time) to peruse the garbage filled discussion boards and listen to the thoughts of other investors/traders, occasionally offering my own two cents.  I must say those days are long gone, especially for the most hyped stocks.  I suppose I grew tired of sifting through the usual boasting, insulting, hyping and griping to get to the few interesting posts.  On a few occasions, I remember having a disagreement regarding the usefulness of chart reading.  It was said that chart reading was just "vodoo" and for the superstititous.  Believe it or not, many investors still feel this way.  But trading stocks without reading the chart is like navigating a thick forest without a compass.  It’s difficult to know where you’re going or where you’ve been.  It’s important to remember that the market looks to the future and the current price and volume pattern is a reflection of investors feelings about the future of the company.  So much so that often times charts can predict future news or growth long before it actually happens.  The charts can tell you where you might be going.  (I say might because chart reading is NEVER 100% – if it were, everyone would be rich.  It’s all about swinging the probability of success in your favor).  You don’t think so?  Then why is it that great companies with solid fundamentals sell off on no news, only to find out several months later that earnings and sales targets are missed?  Why is it that a stock surges with great volume on no news, only to release postive news a few weeks later?  Believe it or not, the big money (institutions… and/or insiders of course) has much more information on a company than you or I do.  As much as they would like to hide their tracks, it is not possible because volume levels reveal the move.  They are showing their hand.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples of the importance of chart reading and the ability of charts to forecast the future.  The first example is of a company called Noble International, which was growing rapidly.  From March ’03 to June ’04 the company had posted quarter over quarter earnings growth of 61%, 38%, 23%, 71%, 24% and 38%.  That’s some mighty impressive growth.  The buy and hold investor who was just looking at the fundamentals probably would have held the stock until poor earnings were in fact released.  The problem with this strategy is that the stock will almost always sell off long before that first earnings report is released.  Once again, the charts (current price/volume) looks to the future.   Another argument from the buy and hold investor may be "Well, it’s a great company and it will come back."  Sure, it may come back.  It may come back in a month, 6 months, 3 years or never.  You lose no matter how long the stock spends correcting.  Either you’ll be hit with a sizable loss or you’ll be sitting on dead money for who knows how long.  You can always buy it back when the technical action improves (with most brokerages charging less than $15 for a market order, commission costs are no longer a big concern).  OK, on to the chart of Noble International (NOBL).

Nobl

Looking at the chart above (click to see larger image) there were several clues that would have told you to get out of the stock long before the 50% decline.  Looking at the overall structure you see a series of failed breakout attempts.  The stock surges on heavy volume, only to fall back into a base on a few occasions.  But the first obvious signal occurred on June 9th when the stock reversed on heavy volume.  Clearly, institutions were looking to unload shares at any opportunity.  The next couple of clues came in the form of a high volume plummet below major support of the 50 day moving average.  If that wasn’t enough of a sell sign, then the large amount of insider selling during that time should have been.  Several million dollars worth of NOBL shares were sold in May and June by several insiders.  Sure enough, the following quarter, the company reported less than stellar results as earnings came in less than the year ago period with a -6% quarter over quarter growth.  A great example of the chart forecasting the future.

It can work in the opposite direction as well.  A great example of this is DHB Industries (DHB), which soared over 20% today on news of a major order from the U.S. Army as well as the City of Baltimore.  But several days ago, there was a darn good clue that some good news was on the horizon.  That clue came in the form of … you guessed it, a high volume advance on no news.  But something was going on.  Let’s take a look at the chart below (click for larger image)

Dhb

As you can see, the big gap up with no news occurred on Nov 15.  It actually happened again on Nov 22, to a lesser degree.  Moves like these don’t usually happen for no reason.. it seemed at the time that another big order announcement was coming down the pike and that is exactly what happened.  Perhaps the CEO David Brooks (who sold 3.7 million shares on Nov 30th) should get a few lessons in chart reading!  Although, he’s probably too busy counting his money considering he made 70 million on the sale… what’s another 15 million right?

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The Triangle Revisited

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 0

A few days ago in a post titled “The Failure of a Triangle”, I looked at the failure of a well formed triangle pattern as the market continued to slump. It’s important to point at that while these particular patterns often work, they, like all patterns, are never gauranteed. Today I thought I’d take a look at another triangle pattern that did successfully breakout. The company is SFBC Intl, Inc. and it broke through the upper portion of the triangle with good buying volume. Notice the declining volume as the triangle forms and then the explosion in price and volume on the breakout. (click the image for a larger view)

canslimblogSFCCclose

What you see here is that the triangle formation is actually a handle formation for a much larger cup base. I think it’s important to note that the cup base is not a well formed base. You like to see a smoother base with less volatilility and more time spent forming the right side of the cup. While today’s move was a good one, it may have trouble getting above 40 in the near term due to market weakness and the magnitude of the advance in such a short time.

canslimblogSFCClong

Please note this is not a recommendation to buy or sell.. always do your own research before making a decision. Have a comment about this or other posts? I’d love to hear it.. have a good weekend!

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The Failure of a Triangle

Posted By Tate Dwinnell |  Subscribe in a reader | Comment 2

This is the first in what will be a series of posts highlighting stocks that have failed from bullish patterns and will be categorized under “When Good Charts Go Bad”. It’s important to study the chart patterns that fail so that we can avoid purchasing the stock or get out before getting burned. Today’s look is at a bullish symmetrical triangle formation that formed after a successful breakout from a flat base several weeks earlier. Often cited as a continuation pattern, the triangle formation presents a brief pause after a significant run up, before breaking out to additional gains. (as always, click the image below for a larger view)

canslimblogTMI

In this particular case, Team Inc. caught my attention as a well formed triangle formation and I watched it closely for a break above the upper portion of the triangle with heavy volume. It never happened. Eventually, the stock broke below the support level of the lower portion of the triangle with heavy selling volume. However, no loss occurred because no buy signal was presented. This is a great example of why it is important to look for a breakout above resistance with large buying volume. Without the wind at your back, your chances at success will diminish significantly.

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