State of the Stock Market
a thorough analysis of the health of the current stock market
December 4, 2009
- The Case For Bear Vs Bull Market
I wanted to post an email I sent out to my members last night, going over the case for a bull vs bear market. Comments are welcome and appreciated!
What a yo yo couple of weeks it’s been with the market bouncing around in a fairly tight trading range. The market doesn’t know what it wants [...]More on this topic (What's this?)A Figment of the Bulls' Imagination (Financial Armageddon, 3/5/10)The Bearish Case For Equities (The Technical Take, 3/3/10)Bullish Investor Sentiment Rises, But... (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/12/10)Avoid Making “Amateur Mistakes” in This Bull Market (Investment U, 12/4/09)
October 6, 2009
- Where Is the Dollar, Gold & S&P500 Headed This Quarter?
Everybody is talking about the US dollar and how low it can go, about gold and how high it can go and most of all the market. Just when will a major correction take place in this market?
Of course there are no certainties in the market, but good technical analysis can give you probabilities [...]More on this topic (What's this?)Inching Closer to the Gold Explosion (Gold Versus Paper, 3/13/10)7 Reasons Gold Will Surpass $2,500 - And Inflation Isn’t One of Them (Money Morning, 10/21/09)Bloomberg Gold Buy Signal (Gold Versus Paper, 3/9/10)What’s the “Fair Price” of Gold? (Investment U, 9/29/09)
June 12, 2008
- Stock Market Sets Up for Further Declines; Garmin (GRMN) Still Shortable?
The following analysis is provided exclusively to readers of SelfInvestors via TheCorrectCall. Enjoy!
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Yesterday’s selloff moved the Dow below a fairly major level of support at 12,200. In all likelihood, this violation will lead to more selling in the days ahead. The technical picture sets up almost too perfectly. According to what we see, the next [...]More on this topic (What's this?)Valuation: Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) (ModernGraham.com, 5/24/08)Attention Shoppers: Garmin - Now 21% off! (FreundInvesting.com: Stock Marke..., 7/30/08)Horacio Marquez Says GPS Leader Garmin (GRMN) Is Oversold (Contrarian Profits, 9/15/08)Are Smart Phones Devouring Garmin? (The Wild Investor, 2/15/10)
April 26, 2007
- Historically, Streaking Dow Forecasting Further Gains; Resistance in the Way
The following is an article from Daily Wealth, reprinted here with permission. It’s an interesting article that takes a look at the Dow’s recent 8 day winning streak and how the Dow has performed following similar streaks in the past. Based on historical trends, we can assume a better than 50/50 chance of further gains [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)Dogs Of The Dow Update (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 4/23/07)A Speculative Grade Market (Financial Armageddon, 4/25/07)What Record High? (Wealth Daily, 4/27/07)Dow Jones: Anomaly or Hidden Value? (Competing for Customers and Capital, 6/3/07)
April 22, 2007
- Stock Chart Analysis – The Major Indices (S&P500, Dow, Nasdaq)
The most glaring thing I see in this chart is the severe V shaped base that has formed. Based on that alone, this market is very much due for some kind of pull back, or at the very least, a lengthy consoliation sideways. With the Dow breaking into new high territory we now have a [...]More on this topic (What's this?)BEWARE THE DOUBLE TOP (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)Market In Denial Phase Of Sentiment Cycle (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/9/10)ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/3/10)From SPX 666 to RUT 666: where will markets take us next (CHARTLINES (tm), 3/5/10)
March 2, 2007
- Don Worden (Telchart) On the Sell Off
The following are the thoughts Don Worden, founder of TCNet/TeleChart, a great real time chatting/charting application. It was written the evening after the market sell off. Don’s a great writer and always offers eloquent insights into the market action.
[...]
February 26, 2007
- Looks Like the Beginning of a Market Correction
I’ve had a few requests from premium members to provide my thoughts on how to play this market right now. I thought I’d pass along with what I shared with them here..
I’ve had a few questions this morning about how best to tackle today’s sell off and wanted to give you my opinion on how [...]
January 24, 2007
- After Market Report – Despite Big Nasdaq Move There are Reasons to Be Cautious; Stock of Day – Life Time Fitness (LTM)
::: Today’s Market Action :::
With a light economic calendar this week, earnings (see today’s earnings movers below) were once again the focus of traders. This time around strong earnings from some big tech names fueled a big Nasdaq bounce after a rough week of heavy selling. The trading action to begin the new year continues [...]More on this topic (What's this?)February 2010 Federal Tax Withholdings Plunge To Multiyear Low (Phil’s Stock World - Members S..., 3/2/10)Technical Analysis Trade Of The Day – Life Time Fitness (Navivest Stocks and Options Blog, 10/5/09)Lifetime Fitness? (The Wild Investor, 2/25/08)Plenty of put selling as market slide picks up steam (Phil’s Stock World - Members S..., 2/23/09)
November 27, 2006
- Dow and S&P Break Upward Trend Lines
Following a little Thanksgiving intermission, traders were in no mood to continue their buying spree. A declining dollar, civil unrest in Iraq, a valuation question of Google and poor sales results out of WalMart all provided good reasons for good old fashioned profit taking. Ok, well it was a little more than just profit taking [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)BEWARE THE DOUBLE TOP (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)Market In Denial Phase Of Sentiment Cycle (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/9/10)From SPX 666 to RUT 666: where will markets take us next (CHARTLINES (tm), 3/5/10)ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/3/10)
November 6, 2006
- Bulls Make a Stand, Major Indices Holding Upward Trend Lines
All indications were pointing to profit taking of some kind, with the big unknown being the severity of the decline. With the action of last week and today, it seems we’re getting the answer. Any correction won’t be severe. Over the weekend I mentioned the following to registered members in the Weekly Market Review:
"Technical forecasts [...]More on this topic (What's this?)Bullish Investor Sentiment Rises, But... (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/12/10)A Figment of the Bulls' Imagination (Financial Armageddon, 3/5/10)BULLISH SENTIMENT SURGES NEAR JANUARY HIGH (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/11/10)CBSMarketwatch: Riding the Rally - How to Make Money in the Bull Market's 2nd Year (Fund my Mutual Fund, 3/8/10)
November 1, 2006
- Round of Profit Taking Begins, Leading Stocks Deteriorate
After any sustained move in the market up or down, I get a bit more hyper vigilant about looking for clues that the trend is about to change, at least in the short term. That always begins with a read of the charts.. a trust in what the technicals are telling me. This certainly goes [...]
October 26, 2006
- Nasdaq Takes Out Multi Year Highs With Volume, But Pay Attention to Tomorrow’s Close
Just as the S&P did more than one month ago, the Nasdaq too has cleared multi year highs with sights set on much loftier goals of following in the footsteps Dow and taking out all time highs (a long ways to go!). Yet again, the bulls got what they wanted today.. a dovish Fed and [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)BEWARE THE DOUBLE TOP (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)Market In Denial Phase Of Sentiment Cycle (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/9/10)ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/3/10)From SPX 666 to RUT 666: where will markets take us next (CHARTLINES (tm), 3/5/10)
October 17, 2006
- Market Priced for Perfection, Ripe for Retreat
Christmas has come early for the Bulls. Over the past several weeks it seems that just about every economic report, Fed speech and recently earnings reports (most notably from consumer related stocks) have been just what the Bulls have asked for. Commodities are off their highs, the consumer is strong, manufacturing robust, inflation in check, [...]
October 3, 2006
- Dow to Record High. Now What?
Don’t mind me I’m just sorting out my thoughts about this current market and how best to play it. Getting my thoughts down in virtual ink helps put it all in perspective. Feel free to share your own thoughts!
Once again the market avoided a third consecutive day of declines. You have to go back to [...]
September 20, 2006
- Dow and S&P Have Momentum to Blow Through Highs
As expected today, the Fed left rates alone following a series of economic data points indicating a soft landing ahead (but with a deteriorating housing market). The real story of the day and yesterday has been the resiliency of this market. A sales warning from Yahoo and a Thai coup couldn’t derail the market yesterday. [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)BEWARE THE DOUBLE TOP (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)Market In Denial Phase Of Sentiment Cycle (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/9/10)The Dividend Stock Recovery: Get Ready for a High-Yield Bonanza (Investment U, 2/22/10)ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/3/10)
September 12, 2006
- Big Drop in Commodities Gives Market Momemtum, But Major Resistance Still Stands in Way
With traders filing in from Labor Day vacations and trading volume returning to normal levels, the market was to reveal more clues as to its direction. There certainly has been much speculation (myself included to a certain degree) that the rally off the July lows is/was a sucker’s rally in danger of a collapse once [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)The optimum growth portfolio for 2010 (Real Wealth - Global Wealth Report, 2/3/10)Commodities 101: How does one invest in commodities? (Asset Prime, 1/22/10)Put this Commodity at the Top of Your Wish List (Investment U, 1/12/10)Commodities 101: What are Commodities? (Asset Prime, 1/20/10)
August 17, 2006
- S&P Joins Nasdaq With a Breakout
Two days ago the Nasdaq broke out of its downward trend as money begin to flow into technology names once again. Yesterday, the S&P followed the Nasdaq lead and joined the ranks of breakout indices as traders once again cheered inflation data.. at least temporarily. It’s important to remember that inflation is still out of [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)BEWARE THE DOUBLE TOP (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)Guest Post: We Can’t Inflate Our Way Out of the Debt Crisis … So What CAN We Do? (naked capitalism, 3/12/10)The US Dollar, Inflation, and Deflation (Oxbury Publishing, 3/10/10)Auerback: Bernanke Fesses Up: America Has No ‘Insolvency’ Issue (naked capitalism, 2/26/10)
August 16, 2006
- Nasdaq Clears Key Resistance, Volume A Bit Tepid
Following a surprising cooling in inflation, at least temporarily (let’s remember that one month of data doesn’t make a trend), the market got a nice pop yesterday. While volume came in higher than the day before, indicating accumulation, it was not all that impressive considering the price move. I want to see another day of [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)Guest Post: We Can’t Inflate Our Way Out of the Debt Crisis … So What CAN We Do? (naked capitalism, 3/12/10)BEWARE THE DOUBLE TOP (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)Market In Denial Phase Of Sentiment Cycle (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 3/9/10)ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY (THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/3/10)
August 15, 2006
- MarketSnapshot & MidDay Updates (Today the Rally is Muted)
I mentioned several weeks ago to members of Selfinvestors.com that another major upgrade is in the works.. I won’t give a timeline because these projects always seem to take much longer than expected. BUT, I will say that one new feature will be a Market Snapshot page where you’ll be able to quickly see just [...]
More on this topic (What's this?)Hallmark of the 11 Month Rally Returns - Weak Volume on Strong Upward Days (Fund my Mutual Fund, 2/17/10)Low Volume and Little Interest On Stocks (Short-Term Trading, 2/2/10)Correction Over (Fund my Mutual Fund, 2/18/10)No Change In The Regime: Volume Dismal In Yet Another Green Day (Phil’s Stock World - Members S..., 2/22/10)
July 30, 2006
- Dow Also Surges Above Downward Trend Line, But Market is Flashing Red Flags
Last Tuesday, the S&P500 became the first major index to rise above resistance of its downward trend line. On Friday, the Dow too, was able to follow in the S&P’s footsteps. Time to jump into long positions right? Not so fast. There are some glaring red flags indicating that this market is still on shaky [...]
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